epoch's Comments

Persian Gulf Countries Showing Power Capacity Strain

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 07:17:50 -0400

But can they get it built?

Oil Majors Exiting the Gas Station Business

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 07:16:33 -0400

Maybe their exiting more than just the retail gas station business?

Why $200 Oil Is Good for US Markets

Mon, 25 Aug 2008 06:20:53 -0400

<$80 oil will empower free economies and weaken grip of the world's trouble makers.

Has Oil Production Reached a 'De Facto' Peak?

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 07:05:22 -0400

A few observations:
1) Greed increases global crude production (higher the oil price the more incentive to add production).
2) High oil price feeds greed (producing nations need more and more money to keep their people happy, new infrastructure projects).
3) NOC incompetence or lack of efficiency (poor business practices) limit global crude production during high and low price environments (just the way it is).
4) Hoarding occurs when the incompetence of a nation's NOC(s) and/or political system is so great that greed (the needs of their people) does not provide enough incentive to increase/stabilize production (it becomes their plan to save oil in the ground since it can't be produced anytime soon by NOC).
5) Politics are the root of all problems (NOC competence won't improve without a major change in political will).
6) International oil companies can increase production if given a chance/access and some resemblance of fair business practices (requires political will).

What I'm Reading This Week: Commodities, Inflation and BRICs

Mon, 19 May 2008 03:38:53 -0400

"The trend is the US dollar is reversible only if the President and Congress acknowledge peak oil...."

There's many prospects in the world, including supposed mature middle east regions, that have potential for new production. Economics are better for many of these "use to be" marginal areas. Some aren't even that marginal (even at $50/brl), there's just been no quality focus by controlling NOC's and their governments (locking out majors). Political issues are now the main limiting factor for replacing/increasing crude production. If the extreme inefficiencies of NOC's could be removed tomorrow there would be no debate about peak oil, at least for a few more decades. Destroying US/European majors ability to do what their good at will definitely maintain the current $/barrel up trend. Maybe that's someone's goal?

Oil to $200? Fundamentals Don't Support It

Thu, 15 May 2008 03:10:21 -0400

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought it was fairly common knowledge that most OPEC members produce as much as they physically can/want (the agreed production limits are basically bull)? Greed and human nature would likely dedicate full production, especially during times of high price and high need for those bucks in the producing countries? As apposed to Iran and Venezuela whom say production should be cut. Why, because they can't produce anywhere close to there assign quota, so it's in there best interest that $/br price stay (go) as high as possible by trying to limit production of others. If Iran and Venezuela could produce more they would? Would OPEC countries actively work to increase production through major infrastructure investment (oil patch, refining, etc.) if they intend to be limited by a quota in the future? Venezuela seems to be doing a good job killing off any future investment in their oil patch so maybe they really plan to observe their assigned production limits.

Why Do Oil Prices Keep Rising?

Mon, 21 Apr 2008 00:47:13 -0400

"Instead, a suitable response to an "emergency" would be to ration fuel for automobiles to ensure adequate supply at tolerable prices for industry. If everyone took buses, streetcars, and subways, walked, or bicycled..."

Might work in a small "high density" European type country. Not in the US with the long distances we must travel. Unless your proposing controlling freedom of movement too.