odin

How Not To Trade the Chinese Earthquake

Weng... my sympathies if you have been affected personally by the earthquake. Even if you havent, it is undoubtedly a tragedy -- for China and the world.

However, it is important to also remember that the world doesnt stop (as it hasnt for any other tragedy in the past...). Which is a good thing in my mind. Industrious people go about and do their job rather than getting paralyzed. Even those who suffer because of the tragedy are better off BECAUSE of such an attitude. (imagine if rescue workers were paralyzed instead of doing their job). While there is a mourning period in China, life has not stopped (The exchange is open..companies affected by the quake are still being bought and sold). Again, a good thing.

Now, as the point of "profitting off the earthquake": many people here invest as a profession. It is their JOB to look at situations objectively. One wouldnt doubt the planners in Zhong Nan Hai (or rescue workers) if they had to make hard decisions about who lived and who died in the midst of the tragedy nor should one fault investors here. Without knowing someone personally (there are many I know, who do trade dispassionately but are the first ones to contribute physically and financially in situations like these), I'd be hardpressed to pass a judgement like that and demand that analysis and opinions be stopped.

Who Is Benefiting From High Commodity Prices?

Isnt the picture more nuanced than that in the credit card space?

If inflation spikes and the economic picture worsens, the transaction processors (MA, V) may benefit in the short run, but that is only fuelled by the fact that the banks who issue the credit are willing. When the chickens of delinquency come home to roost under a prolonged downturn, its hard to see how they will benefit.

Under an inflationary environment, creditors usually suffer, debtors paying with cheaper money benefit.

But its not clear to me that we can paint this as an inflationary environment with one brush. Its clear that cons staples (due to both supply/demand and speculation) will continue to face inflationary pressures (even after today's pullback). Its not clear whether durables are undergoing deflation.