scfranklin94

Is Oil Going the Wrong Way, Or Do We Need to Adjust Our Perceptions?

Here's the paradox:
Stimulus package creates demand, which increases crude prices to the point that the increased energy costs offset the value of the stimulus package....

The energy markets are all over the idea that CL is going to $75/bbl; seems no one has factored in that the return to higher prices will force the US into a stagflation scenario, meaning very low growth in GNP and a flattening of demand.

Natural Gas: Not Many Reasons to Own It

Freya, I don't agree, you're stats are according to conventional vertical gas well fields. Everyone in the business now knows that there is two to three times as much unconventional natural gas reserves as there are of conventional gas reserves.

I remember petroleum engineers from Conoco coming to my high school in the 1970's and telling us that the US would run out of natural gas in twenty five years. I remember looking a well logs for the Barnett Shale in the 1980's and being told by the older guys in the company how the gas in the shale was trapped and would never be recovered economically. Then I attended a conference in the 1990's saying how the US was running out of natural gas and LNG was the only way that we could meet US demand. Now they're saying that the new shale plays will 'only' last 50 to 100 years.... All I know is that on my death bed, there will be more gas production in the US than in anytime else during my lifetime.

Natural Gas: Not Many Reasons to Own It

For those wanting to time an investment in UNG, I wouldn't want to own it before the end of October. Way too much gas out there; storage will max out and we'll have well shut-ins being mandated to maintain pipeline integrity in late October, possibly as early as late September. If we don't have an active hurricane season and above normal summer temperatures, oversupply issues may start as early as Labor Day.

There's no way that the lack of new production will keep this from happening this fall; but by next summer the situation should swing from oversupplied to undersupplied, and there should be a multi-dollar increase in price.