Polaris

11 Comments

    • Is the Commodities Bull Market Over? [view article]
      They say there are lies, dam lies and statistics. I am not sure just how to classify your out put

      Take your data on corn prices you report a price per bushel of $455.5 for end 2007.

      BUT the USA National Agricultural Staistic Service put it at only $4

      Now that is one hell of a difference.

      The price does show some seasonality - you must compare July 2007 with July 2008 or else it is meaningless.

      You should also note that the long term trend from $12/Bu in 1950 to $3/BU in 2000 in terms of $2001. The recent increases merely restore the profitability of the farming industry after years of decline.

      We need that profitability improvement to encourage more food production.

      We need the current prices of fwertilizer to encourage expansion offertilizer production. New mines will not be developed without the cash flow from sales at current prices.

      Please do not waste our time with phoney and inaccurate data and selective time series that are grossely misleading.




      Aug 12 05:34 PM
    • Intuitive Surgical: What Are the Limits of Robotic Surgery? [view article]
      25 Hydroxy

      Even if you are correct and supplements of Vit D can prevent prostate cancer- which is still unproven to my satisfaction- though I do my best to get adequate exposure to UV and eat full fat butter - it will take some years to persuade the population to follow this advice. And we are talking here of a minority of the population who are at risk of Vit D deficiency.

      Furthermore will administration of Vit D in later life reverse 50 or 60 years of deficiency. Yet to be proven. So there will still be a large number of the population in the 50 to 60 age group -the key age group for prostate surgery- for whom this advice is far too late.

      In the long run you may be quite right and Vit D may be very effective in preventing prostate cancer. But that will be in the long term. ISRG will have been very successful in treating those many hundreds of thousands of patients now in their forties and fifties for whom Vit D therapy will not be an option.

      You may be right that in the long term there will be threats to ISRG that we have not yet foreseen - Black Swans. But that is the long term and as J M Keynes once said - "In the long run we are all dead" - including ISRG

       Jul 29 08:54 AM
    • Intuitive Surgical Rises on S&P News; Lowers Revenues Guidance [view article]
      Here you go again with your misleading headlines.

      Why do you people persist with the lie that this company reduced its forecast?

      It did NOT

      Please get your facts straight before you set pen to paper.

      A professional journalist would check all sources first, including the transcript of the company's CC. This is more that just careless reporting . The facts have been drawn to your attention many times.

      Or perhaps it was your intention to damage the reputation of this company.

      You have brought the reputation of this messager board into dispute - no one can now beleive a word you and you co-conspiritors write.

      You are no more thatn a group of charlatan hacks.

       May 25 06:45 AM
    • 6 Medical Device Makers Poised for Growth [view article]
      You are either incredibly devious or extremely dim witted

      You open your argument by saying you will list companies damaged by the credit crisis and then select only two that will prosper.

      Implication? - the rest will not. Now most people will skim through your analysis and will simlpy take away that message.

      That is very misleading or very devious journalism. I don't care which it is it is extremely unprofessional - my last word on the subject       May 12 05:05 PM
    • 6 Medical Device Makers Poised for Growth [view article]
      Just for the record the report on Seeking Alpha "Best and Worst Performing Stocks this earning season " shows ISRG as reducing guidance.

      This Is NOT ture - it increased guidance. Please get the facts right before you publish       May 12 01:14 PM
    • 6 Medical Device Makers Poised for Growth [view article]
      Yes I have a large holding and back this up with leap call options. I have held this poition for over four years and have done remarkablely well. I am quite prepared to wait for the valuation to rectify itself.

      I am however very concerened about the lack of professional standards amongst some analysts and the accuracy of their reports as these reports are picked up by the press and just reiterated without verifictaion.

      A number of analysts Micheal Matson and Amit Hasan have even issued inacurate and irresponsible reports just before earnings - it seems purley to gain publicity, without any regard for the effect on the company or shareholders' investment.

      I am concened that the one analyst quite unjustifiably did imply even after the last CC that the company has reduced its forecast. This is not true as the company actually increase its forecast for Q2. But the press and the talking heads on CNBC reiterated the claim without question. This totally unfounded statement is still reiterated on the Seeking Alpha board today.

      Your article gives the impression that the company is suffering from the credit crunch by including it in the list of damaged companies. You do not correct that impression in the article. Just leave the suggestion hanging in mid air.

      Perhaps I am asking too much of these analysts. I hold a BSc MBA PhD. I would never have been allowed to get away with the sloppy reporting that is prevalent today.

      Investment,particualrl... in the present environment, is too important to be treated so casually.       May 12 01:02 PM
    • Best and Worst Performing Stocks This Earnings Season [view article]
      How many times do we have to repeat that ISRG did not reduce guidance. DID NOT REDUCE guidance

      They actually RAISED guidance. However there are seven analysts following this company - for six the forecast for Q2 sactered closeley around the mean. Only one rogue anal;yst had a wildy opimistic forecast. ISRG raised guidance above the average of the six sane analysts but below the odd ball.

      In no way can thwsi be comsidered lowereing of the guidance

      PLEASE in future get you facts sgright before myou sound off and damage the investments of honest investors - there are still some around.       May 12 09:32 AM
    • 6 Medical Device Makers Poised for Growth [view article]
      Your article is very unbalanced - You have set up six companies for comment insinuating that they have all been damamged by the credit crisis. But only comment on two as possible rebound companies.

      BUT there is no evidence that ISRG has been damaged in any way. The ISRG management are adamant that they have not seen any effect on their business from the credit crunch. They are still recruiting sales staff and the list of new surgeons adopting the daVinchi robot continiues to grow see the published international list of surgeons adapting this technique.

      As usual Seeking Aplha appears to have its own agenda.

      This article is NOT a professional report. If you are going to list ISRG as one of your targets you should present the facts as reported by the ISRG to preserve balance and honest reporting.       May 12 09:12 AM
    • Commodity Conundrum Solved: The Hidden Parameter in Interest Rates [view article]
      I found your analysis totally flawed but very entertaining. It seems that along with all other US econometricians you start from the ingrained conceit even hubris concerning the $US and that the world economy is somehow still controlled from the Fed Reserve. It is not. It has not been so controlled for well over a decade.

      Your logic is flawed. Yes the inexorable rise in commodity prices seems to coincide to the decline and fall of the $US. But a statistical correlation does not prove cause and effect. It is a pity that economists are not scientifically trained.

      Now be sensible take out gold from the analysis – it is a barbaric metal of little or no industrial use – just a speculative hedge against the US$. Look at the other economically important commodities.

      What we are witnessing is a total change in the global market dynamics; starting with the fall of the Iron Curtain, the consolidation of East and West Europe, the rising strength of the Euro and most importantly the industrialisation of China and India. Concomitant with this has been the start of the decline of the influence and economic importance of the USA.

      You only have to look at the demand for iron ore as an example, ignore the price for a moment. The demand has been growing exponentially since 1999/2000. This growth is largely fuelled by the industrialisation of China. This has absolutely nothing to do with the decline in value of the US$. In fact the US contributes less that 3% to the demand for iron ore annually.

      The importance of the US to the global economy has been declining for over a decade. It has been accelerated by the mismanagement of the Fed by Greenspan and by the criminal activities of the Wall Street traders. But it was inevitable anyway.

      Economists must learn to look to the future and not the past.

      I leave you with a quote from Fredrick Nietzche:

      “The present is as much determined by the future as it is by the past”
       May 01 10:17 AM
    • Hospitals' CapEx Cautions May Be Limiting Intuitive Surgical Growth, For Now [view article]
      Mr Johnson your comments about the 1stQtr 2008 sales being below 4thQtr 2007 are grossly misleading

      The company did forecast this in January - The 1stQtr is always the slowest Qtr of the year.

      Surely a more realistic and valid comparison is with the 1stQtr of last year - a 65% increase - now that's growth in anyone's book.

      You are just the last in a long line of analysts that has tried to bring this company down - these include Michael Matson of Wachovia who just prior to the Jan CC claimed that the credit squeeze had hit the company's sales - a claim strongly rejected at the CC then and again last week.


      Then we had that numb skull Amit Hasan who claimed just prior to the Jan cc that GYN surgeons were slow to adopt the robot - again not true as we all knew from our contacts with the surgeons and the growing published list of GYN surgeon using the robot. The claim wasfirmly and quickly diosmissed by the company.

      Hasan did not even have the guts to posit his question at the CC and used a stooge insted to ask the questions form.

      The diriver for this product is not the insurance companies nor even the hospitals - it is the patients themselves. And bear in mind this -most of these patients( prostate and GYNB) are post middle age and usually very well heeled. Do they need medicare?- I think not.

      Hospitals will have to adopt the robot if they are to compete in the field. AND a good many of them have more than one machine already.

      Sorry laddie your arguments do not wash .



       Apr 21 07:12 PM
    • Hospitals' CapEx Cautions May Be Limiting Intuitive Surgical Growth, For Now [view article]
      My point a figure chart -even including the fall on friday is still showing a price target of 537 and has a strongly bullish trend line on all time frames. I am using the charting programme supplied by Updata Technical Analysisa a highly regarded European company used widely in London.

      The company beat analysts forecasts on all metrics by a wide margin. AND what is more, contrary to the misinformation that has been widely spread around about this company the company did in fact increase its guidance for the next quarter and the year as a whole and this was in line with the average forecast of the analysts.

      There was one problem however. If you look at the spread of forecasts for the next quarter by the analysts most clustered as expected around the mean. Only one rogue analysts produced a forecast that was clearly overly optimistic. The company's guidance this did fall short of the ridiculously high estimate by the one oddball analyst. Can't blame ISRG for that. The analyst got it wrong.

      More to the point - if you take out the rogue forecast then the company guidance going forward beat the average for the analysts.

      With a growth stock like this what is important is the forward P/Eand not the trailing P/E as well you know - look at the forecast P/E around 40 - not bad for this stock

      As to your comments on the covered calls . I have been using calls on this stock for over three years to gear up my equity holding and as I see it the only change over last year is the increase in volatility but that has become a feature of the market as a whole.

      The Ichimouku Kinhou-hyou chart looks very positive on all time frames.

      I accept that you have done your best to put a negative spin on the company but I feel that this is totally unjustified by the company's performance and by a the share price volaltility that is still within the
      range we have experienced over the last twelve months - even including the nfall created by the bear raid that has been engineered over the last few days.
      Apr 21 06:40 PM
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