Polaris

Is the Commodities Bull Market Over?

They say there are lies, dam lies and statistics. I am not sure just how to classify your out put

Take your data on corn prices you report a price per bushel of $455.5 for end 2007.

BUT the USA National Agricultural Staistic Service put it at only $4

Now that is one hell of a difference.

The price does show some seasonality - you must compare July 2007 with July 2008 or else it is meaningless.

You should also note that the long term trend from $12/Bu in 1950 to $3/BU in 2000 in terms of $2001. The recent increases merely restore the profitability of the farming industry after years of decline.

We need that profitability improvement to encourage more food production.

We need the current prices of fwertilizer to encourage expansion offertilizer production. New mines will not be developed without the cash flow from sales at current prices.

Please do not waste our time with phoney and inaccurate data and selective time series that are grossely misleading.