H. T. Love's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/181517/comments http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1877941-axion-power-concentrator-238-may-21-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-19080911 19080911
HardToLove
EDIT down to 10K at 14;14.]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 14:17:28 -0400
HardToLove
EDIT down to 10K at 14;14.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1877941-axion-power-concentrator-238-may-21-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-19077331 19077331
HardToLove]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 12:59:05 -0400
HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1877941-axion-power-concentrator-238-may-21-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-19072751 19072751
HardToLove]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 11:14:47 -0400
HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1877941-axion-power-concentrator-238-may-21-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-19070351 19070351
I don't foresee any sales, near-term at least, that would be some industrial customer buying because "we can generate income with this".

For utilities, the deferment of capex (infra-structure upgrades) may be the equivalent of income and should have good sales there based on savings and, effectively, is equivalent to income. Smoothing regulator-mandated renewables would also be a good catalyst I think.

MHO,
HardToLove]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 10:19:05 -0400
I don't foresee any sales, near-term at least, that would be some industrial customer buying because "we can generate income with this".

For utilities, the deferment of capex (infra-structure upgrades) may be the equivalent of income and should have good sales there based on savings and, effectively, is equivalent to income. Smoothing regulator-mandated renewables would also be a good catalyst I think.

MHO,
HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-19067671 19067671 # Trds: 98, MinTrSz: 0, MaxTrSz: 17593, Vol 355550, AvTrSz: 3628
Min. Pr: 0.2510, Max Pr: 0.2615, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2575
# Buys, Shares: 63 208050, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2585
# Sells, Shares: 35 147500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2561
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.41:1 (58.5% “buys”), DlyShts 135850 (38.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 92.10%

VWAP continues to hold up well: $0.2372, $0.2446, $0.2592, $0.2599 and $0.2575. The trend has been long-enough that it has begun to show in the 5, 10 and 25-day averages, while the longer term ones, the 50, 100 and 200-day have yet to be affected: $0.2517, $0.2506, $0.2490, $0.2634, $0.2918 and $0.2921. Note how the three shorter-term averages are “in order” with the 5-day above the10-day, which is above the 25-day. In conjunction with the buy:sell action, there may be an approach to a rise going on. The buy percentages for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are showing a similar configuration: 48%, 0.44%, 0.38% and 0.42.

The bid/ask movements showed bid changes having 9 increases and 5 decreases (some “uncovered”), and ask changes showing 10 increases (some “uncovered”) and 9 decreases. I couldn't see any strong trend of “late-day weakness” or any other pattern to the moves.

Average trade sizes continue to be down in the lower range of what I believe to be “retail” and I think is an effect of the entry of market-makers not commonly seen before the capital raise occurred: 5199, 4313, 4063, 3559, 4863, 4250, 5612, 4650, 4087 and 3628. This seems supported by the change in “Dly Sht % of 'sells'”, which has moved higher recently, but nowhere near the levels of the heavy selling seen last year.

Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

============ 2013 ===============
Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
May Avg: 56.17%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%

I believe some of this recent increase is a “pull” effect where the prices remaining better than sellers might have expected, but not substantially improving, has caused them to make the decision to get while the getting is good. This would also account for the recent entry of market-makers not seen for a long time.

Daily volumes, which spiked after the capital raise announcement, are trending towards the pre-announcement levels. The 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are, in thousands: 485, 374, 298 and 300. Daily short sales continue in a range that I expect are more normal than the extremely low levels we observed for a long time. This has continued long enough to affect the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day average percentages: 27.75%, 18.73%, 12.12% and 11.86%. On 4/23 they were 4.62%, 5.33%, 7.5% and 10%.

My original experimental inflection point calculations are, again, making another attempt at reduced weakening in their trends. Five of the six periods showed one-day improvement and the other, the 100-day, was unchanged, for all practical purposes. The five-day change in the periods had all showing improvement and the five-day rte of change of these had five of the six showing improvement. I do want to emphasize that these are only reductions in weakening, so far, and do not yet form the pattern that suggests an up move is imminent or in progress. It is a needed precursor though. My newer version, considering additional factors, has only two improvements in the one-day change, replicating yesterday's profile of being weaker than the original version. In the five-day change of these metrics, four are weaker, notably two of the three shorter-term ones. The five-day rate of change for these has five of the six weaker.

Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

HardToLove]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 09:28:54 -0400 # Trds: 98, MinTrSz: 0, MaxTrSz: 17593, Vol 355550, AvTrSz: 3628
Min. Pr: 0.2510, Max Pr: 0.2615, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2575
# Buys, Shares: 63 208050, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2585
# Sells, Shares: 35 147500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2561
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.41:1 (58.5% “buys”), DlyShts 135850 (38.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 92.10%

VWAP continues to hold up well: $0.2372, $0.2446, $0.2592, $0.2599 and $0.2575. The trend has been long-enough that it has begun to show in the 5, 10 and 25-day averages, while the longer term ones, the 50, 100 and 200-day have yet to be affected: $0.2517, $0.2506, $0.2490, $0.2634, $0.2918 and $0.2921. Note how the three shorter-term averages are “in order” with the 5-day above the10-day, which is above the 25-day. In conjunction with the buy:sell action, there may be an approach to a rise going on. The buy percentages for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are showing a similar configuration: 48%, 0.44%, 0.38% and 0.42.

The bid/ask movements showed bid changes having 9 increases and 5 decreases (some “uncovered”), and ask changes showing 10 increases (some “uncovered”) and 9 decreases. I couldn't see any strong trend of “late-day weakness” or any other pattern to the moves.

Average trade sizes continue to be down in the lower range of what I believe to be “retail” and I think is an effect of the entry of market-makers not commonly seen before the capital raise occurred: 5199, 4313, 4063, 3559, 4863, 4250, 5612, 4650, 4087 and 3628. This seems supported by the change in “Dly Sht % of 'sells'”, which has moved higher recently, but nowhere near the levels of the heavy selling seen last year.

Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

============ 2013 ===============
Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
May Avg: 56.17%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%

I believe some of this recent increase is a “pull” effect where the prices remaining better than sellers might have expected, but not substantially improving, has caused them to make the decision to get while the getting is good. This would also account for the recent entry of market-makers not seen for a long time.

Daily volumes, which spiked after the capital raise announcement, are trending towards the pre-announcement levels. The 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are, in thousands: 485, 374, 298 and 300. Daily short sales continue in a range that I expect are more normal than the extremely low levels we observed for a long time. This has continued long enough to affect the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day average percentages: 27.75%, 18.73%, 12.12% and 11.86%. On 4/23 they were 4.62%, 5.33%, 7.5% and 10%.

My original experimental inflection point calculations are, again, making another attempt at reduced weakening in their trends. Five of the six periods showed one-day improvement and the other, the 100-day, was unchanged, for all practical purposes. The five-day change in the periods had all showing improvement and the five-day rte of change of these had five of the six showing improvement. I do want to emphasize that these are only reductions in weakening, so far, and do not yet form the pattern that suggests an up move is imminent or in progress. It is a needed precursor though. My newer version, considering additional factors, has only two improvements in the one-day change, replicating yesterday's profile of being weaker than the original version. In the five-day change of these metrics, four are weaker, notably two of the three shorter-term ones. The five-day rate of change for these has five of the six weaker.

Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-19045511 19045511
Anyway, my *personal* opinion is that the "low-hanging fruit", such as might be available in s/s and other places Axion could help, just wasn't part of the "We're gonna reshape the world in our desired image" scenario.

MHO,
HardToLove]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 17:23:00 -0400
Anyway, my *personal* opinion is that the "low-hanging fruit", such as might be available in s/s and other places Axion could help, just wasn't part of the "We're gonna reshape the world in our desired image" scenario.

MHO,
HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-19037821 19037821
We don't seem to have a vaccine or cure for that yet.

HardToLove]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 14:36:56 -0400
We don't seem to have a vaccine or cure for that yet.

HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-19035791 19035791
This is *not* saying EB is *not* expert in these areas and/or doesn't know better thanTG, Vani, etc.

But I am saying that taking his *opinions* as gospel solutions may be rather naive. Just as I wouldn't take the opinion, w/o critical thought, of anyone that doesn't have an established track-record and/or long experience performing that function.

Come to think of it, when I worked for the big company, I didn't take management's opinions for gospel either - I was always a critical thinker about what they did.

MHO,
HardToLove]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 13:53:52 -0400
This is *not* saying EB is *not* expert in these areas and/or doesn't know better thanTG, Vani, etc.

But I am saying that taking his *opinions* as gospel solutions may be rather naive. Just as I wouldn't take the opinion, w/o critical thought, of anyone that doesn't have an established track-record and/or long experience performing that function.

Come to think of it, when I worked for the big company, I didn't take management's opinions for gospel either - I was always a critical thinker about what they did.

MHO,
HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-19022501 19022501
And this gets me to thinking of my rant again. Since "prevailing share price" s/b a result of a forward-looking mechanism ("the market"), "expected" should be added into the "functions of sales ..." clause. I think TG should devote a small amount of thought and resources to assuring that "the market" has "reasonable" expectations by not "sequestering" :-)) too much information that he is free to share.

MHO,
HardToLove]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 08:56:40 -0400
And this gets me to thinking of my rant again. Since "prevailing share price" s/b a result of a forward-looking mechanism ("the market"), "expected" should be added into the "functions of sales ..." clause. I think TG should devote a small amount of thought and resources to assuring that "the market" has "reasonable" expectations by not "sequestering" :-)) too much information that he is free to share.

MHO,
HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-19018841 19018841
Is that presumptuous on your part?

Some of us may not be smart or as wise as you, but OTOH ...

HardToLove]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 05:40:12 -0400
Is that presumptuous on your part?

Some of us may not be smart or as wise as you, but OTOH ...

HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1848151-axion-power-concentrator-235-may-12-axion-power-completes-private-placement-for-9-million-and-1-million?source=feed#comment-19018811 19018811
We know that must take priority and are appreciative when you are able to take time here ... guilt-free.

HardToLove]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 05:30:27 -0400
We know that must take priority and are appreciative when you are able to take time here ... guilt-free.

HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-19005211 19005211
HardToLove]]> Sun, 19 May 2013 17:14:14 -0400
HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-19005181 19005181
The "basket" index, DXY which includes the Euro (6 currencies, probably the Yen too, but I don't know), closed at $79.26 week of 1/30/13 and now sits at $84.34 close last week - again a huge move by currency standards.

The nasty thing is that buying carbon for here, it's a boon but selling anything from here it's a negative.

Buying and selling to/from "over there" ameliorates some of these issues.

HardToLove]]> Sun, 19 May 2013 17:12:25 -0400
The "basket" index, DXY which includes the Euro (6 currencies, probably the Yen too, but I don't know), closed at $79.26 week of 1/30/13 and now sits at $84.34 close last week - again a huge move by currency standards.

The nasty thing is that buying carbon for here, it's a boon but selling anything from here it's a negative.

Buying and selling to/from "over there" ameliorates some of these issues.

HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-19002921 19002921
http://bit.ly/YTdxKd

"In order to export LNG, it takes energy to simply turn that energy into a liquid. How much? Roughly 25%".

"If we add up all of the proposed projects, including an equal number not on the above list, we discover that their collective export capacity is just a hair under 30 billion cubic feet per day, or a whopping 43% of current U.S. production".

HardToLove]]> Sun, 19 May 2013 15:41:52 -0400
http://bit.ly/YTdxKd

"In order to export LNG, it takes energy to simply turn that energy into a liquid. How much? Roughly 25%".

"If we add up all of the proposed projects, including an equal number not on the above list, we discover that their collective export capacity is just a hair under 30 billion cubic feet per day, or a whopping 43% of current U.S. production".

HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-18989471 18989471 # Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 261558, AvTrSz: 4087
Min. Pr: 0.2500, Max Pr: 0.2640, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2599
# Buys, Shares: 40 157799, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2613
# Sells, Shares: 20 88760, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2573
# Unkn, Shares: 4 14999, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2598
Buy:Sell 1.78:1 (60.3% “buys”), DlyShts 92700 (35.44%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 104.44%

Still holding up well. Prices and volumes, in thousands, for the last 10 days:
$0.2609 211.23, $0.2588 129.98, $0.2513 1143.06, $0.2492 304.71, $0.2466 270.48
$0.2417 778.10, $0.2372 590.69, $0.2446 0370.42, $0.2592 641.74, $0.2599 261.56.

With no exceptionally large trades today and the VWAP where it's at, relative to the low and high, I think we are seeing more bullishness than we might have expected.

I couldn't check as many bid and ask changes today but the activity there seems to be supporting a more bullish sentiment too. The bids increased eight times and decreased only four times. The asks increased seven times and decreased 5 times. The trend in trades was up through about 14:00 and then stayed flat until around 15:00, when some volatility came in and gave some increased highs, with lows staying right around those seen in the14:00 onward period. So we had early-day strength followed by late-day flat, mostly. Still a nice change from the long period of late-day weakness we used to see consistently.

Of special note is the continuing improvement in the averages of the buy:sell ratio, in percentages. All 4 averages, 10, 25, 50 and 100-day periods, are back in normal ranges, 47%, 42%, 37% and 42%, as the daily trend is trending around normal percentages: 54.4%, 58.4%, 57.4%, 37.4%, 0.346%, 42.3%, 29.4%, 43.2% and 60.3%.

Average trade size during this period of uncertainty has been low and continues low, with today's average trade size again in the low-mid-range of what I think is retail size. I'm beginning to think this is a normal side-effect of having more, and more active, participants, as evidenced by the cadre of newer market-maker participants we've seen. This reduced average trade size became more common with their appearance. This may be normal until we see another change in the market-makers participating, which might never happen. At some point I might have re-assess what is normal “retail” size.

Daily short sale percentages continue to trend up. The 10-day average has “spiked” to 24.44% from single-digit range 3/13-4/24. My feeling is that as long as the “new” market-makers are here we'll see these elevated levels, possibly heading to the levels I mentioned in this comment in one of JP's blogs.

http://bit.ly/13x5Pn6

However, I do believe we would have to see volumes consistently higher, along with continued higher numbers of market-makers participating, to get there. Sans that, I'm gravitating to somewhere in the ~30% range as reasonable and likely. When volume really comes in, then those higher percentages mentioned in my comment seem more likely.

My original experimental inflection point calculations continue mixed, although they are turning a bit less negative right now. 4 of the six periods show a one-day reducing weakness, as do the 5-day changes in 4 of the six periods and the average rate of change for those metrics. My newer version, designed to consider additional factors, is slightly less positive one the one day change, although still in a state that could be easily induced to signal a move up. Only 3 of the 6 periods show a one-day improvement. The 5-day change in those periods has 4 improving along with 5 of the 6 average changes over the five days showing improvement.

Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

HardToLove]]> Sat, 18 May 2013 18:28:30 -0400 # Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 261558, AvTrSz: 4087
Min. Pr: 0.2500, Max Pr: 0.2640, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2599
# Buys, Shares: 40 157799, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2613
# Sells, Shares: 20 88760, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2573
# Unkn, Shares: 4 14999, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2598
Buy:Sell 1.78:1 (60.3% “buys”), DlyShts 92700 (35.44%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 104.44%

Still holding up well. Prices and volumes, in thousands, for the last 10 days:
$0.2609 211.23, $0.2588 129.98, $0.2513 1143.06, $0.2492 304.71, $0.2466 270.48
$0.2417 778.10, $0.2372 590.69, $0.2446 0370.42, $0.2592 641.74, $0.2599 261.56.

With no exceptionally large trades today and the VWAP where it's at, relative to the low and high, I think we are seeing more bullishness than we might have expected.

I couldn't check as many bid and ask changes today but the activity there seems to be supporting a more bullish sentiment too. The bids increased eight times and decreased only four times. The asks increased seven times and decreased 5 times. The trend in trades was up through about 14:00 and then stayed flat until around 15:00, when some volatility came in and gave some increased highs, with lows staying right around those seen in the14:00 onward period. So we had early-day strength followed by late-day flat, mostly. Still a nice change from the long period of late-day weakness we used to see consistently.

Of special note is the continuing improvement in the averages of the buy:sell ratio, in percentages. All 4 averages, 10, 25, 50 and 100-day periods, are back in normal ranges, 47%, 42%, 37% and 42%, as the daily trend is trending around normal percentages: 54.4%, 58.4%, 57.4%, 37.4%, 0.346%, 42.3%, 29.4%, 43.2% and 60.3%.

Average trade size during this period of uncertainty has been low and continues low, with today's average trade size again in the low-mid-range of what I think is retail size. I'm beginning to think this is a normal side-effect of having more, and more active, participants, as evidenced by the cadre of newer market-maker participants we've seen. This reduced average trade size became more common with their appearance. This may be normal until we see another change in the market-makers participating, which might never happen. At some point I might have re-assess what is normal “retail” size.

Daily short sale percentages continue to trend up. The 10-day average has “spiked” to 24.44% from single-digit range 3/13-4/24. My feeling is that as long as the “new” market-makers are here we'll see these elevated levels, possibly heading to the levels I mentioned in this comment in one of JP's blogs.

http://bit.ly/13x5Pn6

However, I do believe we would have to see volumes consistently higher, along with continued higher numbers of market-makers participating, to get there. Sans that, I'm gravitating to somewhere in the ~30% range as reasonable and likely. When volume really comes in, then those higher percentages mentioned in my comment seem more likely.

My original experimental inflection point calculations continue mixed, although they are turning a bit less negative right now. 4 of the six periods show a one-day reducing weakness, as do the 5-day changes in 4 of the six periods and the average rate of change for those metrics. My newer version, designed to consider additional factors, is slightly less positive one the one day change, although still in a state that could be easily induced to signal a move up. Only 3 of the 6 periods show a one-day improvement. The 5-day change in those periods has 4 improving along with 5 of the 6 average changes over the five days showing improvement.

Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-18986441 18986441
The value proposition might drive the electrode pricing? What do the competing technologies cost to perform the same function (nearly?) as well? Is there a price point acceptable to the end-users (meaning auto manufacturers in this case?) that is closer to those competing technologies' prices such that we command more margin without sacrificing (much?) market-share? I'm thinking performance for the cost being a viable metric here. If that price-point is available and passes through the battery manufacturer as well, then the projections we think of at the moment might be low.

Add in some period of a semi-monopoly position, regarding the IP and trade secrets providing a barrier to entry for certain technologies, and the fact that regulators will, if JP is correct, *mandate* a use and lifetime requirement similar to all other pollution control systems, ...

That's just the automotive market. Are there some advantages in the other markets that Axion also holds that add to pricing power when compared to competing technologies?

I think this might be a better starting point than just thinking of ourselves in *any* market as another commodity component. We might be components in a commodity, but that doesn't *necessarily* mean that our margins and pricing have to be commodity-like ... at least for some time?

ISTM that some period of increased pricing power must exist to enable recouping of the costs sunk to get to where we are in a reasonable time-frame *and* support on-going R & D for improvements and new product lines (large cell size, e.g?).

If we aren't growing we'll be dying, according to an old mantra. A commercial enterprise can never be static and that means you can't price at just a "maintenance" level. Every business customer will understand this, no?

HardToLove]]> Sat, 18 May 2013 15:08:28 -0400
The value proposition might drive the electrode pricing? What do the competing technologies cost to perform the same function (nearly?) as well? Is there a price point acceptable to the end-users (meaning auto manufacturers in this case?) that is closer to those competing technologies' prices such that we command more margin without sacrificing (much?) market-share? I'm thinking performance for the cost being a viable metric here. If that price-point is available and passes through the battery manufacturer as well, then the projections we think of at the moment might be low.

Add in some period of a semi-monopoly position, regarding the IP and trade secrets providing a barrier to entry for certain technologies, and the fact that regulators will, if JP is correct, *mandate* a use and lifetime requirement similar to all other pollution control systems, ...

That's just the automotive market. Are there some advantages in the other markets that Axion also holds that add to pricing power when compared to competing technologies?

I think this might be a better starting point than just thinking of ourselves in *any* market as another commodity component. We might be components in a commodity, but that doesn't *necessarily* mean that our margins and pricing have to be commodity-like ... at least for some time?

ISTM that some period of increased pricing power must exist to enable recouping of the costs sunk to get to where we are in a reasonable time-frame *and* support on-going R & D for improvements and new product lines (large cell size, e.g?).

If we aren't growing we'll be dying, according to an old mantra. A commercial enterprise can never be static and that means you can't price at just a "maintenance" level. Every business customer will understand this, no?

HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-18985941 18985941
However, that "the certificate holders are really out" is the part I'm unclear on.

HardToLove]]> Sat, 18 May 2013 14:47:41 -0400
However, that "the certificate holders are really out" is the part I'm unclear on.

HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-18984241 18984241
Through the latest fails report, April second-half, there's no new fails for AXPW. That could change in May, of course.

HardToLove]]> Sat, 18 May 2013 13:22:05 -0400
Through the latest fails report, April second-half, there's no new fails for AXPW. That could change in May, of course.

HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-18963751 18963751
I don't know about that! ;-))

HardToLove]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 17:26:31 -0400
I don't know about that! ;-))

HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-18963621 18963621
Based on the education from JP and Iindelco, I would think that BMW introduced two or three potential partners right off the bat. My thinking is this is suggested on a couple levels.

First, BMW wants to maximize the chance for success, *and* get the best price. Having a couple candidates increases the chance a deal will be struck and puts some of their current suppliers in competition with each other, helping to keep prices down - remember a battery is a commodity to the auto makers.

Second, if the decision was to introduce in Europe first, they could still have a single point of system failure if only one partner was engaged from the beginning. Redundancy, even if phased in over some reasonable time-frame, should be the desired configuration I think.

MHO,
HardToLove]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 17:22:36 -0400
Based on the education from JP and Iindelco, I would think that BMW introduced two or three potential partners right off the bat. My thinking is this is suggested on a couple levels.

First, BMW wants to maximize the chance for success, *and* get the best price. Having a couple candidates increases the chance a deal will be struck and puts some of their current suppliers in competition with each other, helping to keep prices down - remember a battery is a commodity to the auto makers.

Second, if the decision was to introduce in Europe first, they could still have a single point of system failure if only one partner was engaged from the beginning. Redundancy, even if phased in over some reasonable time-frame, should be the desired configuration I think.

MHO,
HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-18963011 18963011
I'm grateful that he takes the time and hope he never feels that participation here carries any other responsibilities or is a burden on him.

MHO,
HardToLove]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 17:09:05 -0400
I'm grateful that he takes the time and hope he never feels that participation here carries any other responsibilities or is a burden on him.

MHO,
HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-18957801 18957801
Clarification: JP's private placement holders s/b long gone based on the change in short sales and fails to deliver (documented in another instablog I have up). My daily insta also has some numbers, going back several months (to August?) when we believed they were nearly exhausted. Numbers support that as well in the following times.

As to the MMs, I continue to believe that the new spate of MMs are handling shares not held by them or their owning (if any) broker. By rule, shares not controlled by the seller must be flagged short. So this is where I think the increase comes from.

By implication, the prior recent low short volumes and percentages were being fed in either from MMs owned by brokers that had the sell orders or the MMs were holding short-term long positions to play in the market. With stock prices were they are, a goodly number of shares might fit their risk-management parameters,

" has the 26.4 cent deal price as the upper number. Also interesting."

I've read in the past that often the market treats the price of cap raises as what value managment placed on the stock. I don't know if that's true or not. But there is likely a feeling that the new holders at $0.264 will be loathe to sell below that, so any buys below that s/b relatively lower-risk. Don't forget the capital raise also includes some purchase down the road (via the warrants? I'd have to double check) at $0.302, IIRC. This could also factor in.

"MAXM, the MM affiliate of the agent, has had a bid at 17 cents since the cap raise"

Yes, I noticed as they were "new" to us here. I think that's just one of those "you never know" bids.

MHO,
HardToLove]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 15:21:16 -0400
Clarification: JP's private placement holders s/b long gone based on the change in short sales and fails to deliver (documented in another instablog I have up). My daily insta also has some numbers, going back several months (to August?) when we believed they were nearly exhausted. Numbers support that as well in the following times.

As to the MMs, I continue to believe that the new spate of MMs are handling shares not held by them or their owning (if any) broker. By rule, shares not controlled by the seller must be flagged short. So this is where I think the increase comes from.

By implication, the prior recent low short volumes and percentages were being fed in either from MMs owned by brokers that had the sell orders or the MMs were holding short-term long positions to play in the market. With stock prices were they are, a goodly number of shares might fit their risk-management parameters,

" has the 26.4 cent deal price as the upper number. Also interesting."

I've read in the past that often the market treats the price of cap raises as what value managment placed on the stock. I don't know if that's true or not. But there is likely a feeling that the new holders at $0.264 will be loathe to sell below that, so any buys below that s/b relatively lower-risk. Don't forget the capital raise also includes some purchase down the road (via the warrants? I'd have to double check) at $0.302, IIRC. This could also factor in.

"MAXM, the MM affiliate of the agent, has had a bid at 17 cents since the cap raise"

Yes, I noticed as they were "new" to us here. I think that's just one of those "you never know" bids.

MHO,
HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/772408-quickchat/1844861-qc-257-may-10-2013?source=feed#comment-18951081 18951081
HardToLove]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 13:06:51 -0400
HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-18950661 18950661
HardToLove]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 12:56:00 -0400
HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-18949501 18949501 http://bit.ly/101Y08a

Anyway, I C & P'd the text into this comment from the page "Results of Operations", "Motive Transportation", page 10.

http://seekingalpha.co...

Note the "We are a few months into that program and it is going well".

HardToLove]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 12:31:58 -0400 http://bit.ly/101Y08a

Anyway, I C & P'd the text into this comment from the page "Results of Operations", "Motive Transportation", page 10.

http://seekingalpha.co...

Note the "We are a few months into that program and it is going well".

HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1862641-axion-power-concentrator-236-may-15-axion-power-releases-quarterly-report-for-the-first-quarter-2013?source=feed#comment-18948651 18948651
I have to interpret this as referencing the financial investors in the capital raise from last year.

HardToLove]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 12:17:55 -0400
I have to interpret this as referencing the financial investors in the capital raise from last year.

HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-18944951 18944951
But we also have the knowledge that it could accept 200, and more, amps on the charge as well.

Se we're good to go up and down hills. :-))

HardToLove]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 11:13:58 -0400
But we also have the knowledge that it could accept 200, and more, amps on the charge as well.

Se we're good to go up and down hills. :-))

HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-18939891 18939891 # Trds: 138, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 641735, AvTrSz: 4650
Min. Pr: 0.2460, Max Pr: 0.2690, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2592
# Buys, Shares: 64 277317, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2601
# Sells, Shares: 70 354417, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2585
# Unkn, Shares: 4 10001, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2549
Buy:Sell 1:1.28 (43.2% “buys”), DlyShts 218208 (34%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 61.57%

Not a bad day! Some good news in the quarterly report (potential auto customer introduced Axion to potential partner(s?) for second-source of the PbC batteries) seemed to generate enough bullishness to offset the sellers' desire to exit, as evidenced by the buy:sell (all the averages are back near normal levels too now) and VWAP action today vs. Prior days: $0.2609, $0.2588, $0.2513, $0.2492, $0.2466, $0.2417, $0.2372, $0.2446 and $0.2592. I think the recognition that there's no assured near-term increase in revenues, leaving another capital raise on the table for a year or so out, muted the potential response.

Some context on the price action might be useful here. Note the prices where the weight of the volume is.

$0.2460-$0.2475: 018500 shares, 02.88% of volume, VWAP $0.2462
$0.2500-$0.2530: 102767 shares, 16.01% of volume, VWAP $0.2504
$0.2550-$0.2590: 124500 shares, 19.40% of volume, VWAP $0.2558
$0.2600-$0.2649: 123400 shares, 19.23% of volume, VWAP $0.2618
$0.2650-$0.2690: 226068 shares, 35.23% of volume, VWAP $0.2666

On the technical front, daily short sales continue elevated and all the averages I track, 10, 25, 50 and 100-day, have moved above the long-term calculated short sales trend line and are rising: 25.04 %, 16.08%, 11.02% and 11.55%. Daily trade volume is still elevated, compared to recent trends, and is in the process of normalizing ATM.

Average trade size is at the low-mid-range of what I think is retail. The market-makers, including the recent new entrants, are having to work harder. This is supported by the changes in bid/ask that were seen today, decidedly less bullish than prior days. Of 15 bid changes I spotted 6 were increases and 9 were decreases (some uncovered by exhaustion of better bids). Of the 13 ask changes, 4 were increases (some uncovered) and 9 were decreases. In spite of that, VWAP and buy:sell do show that there's not a large imbalance (yet?) in the buyers and sellers.

On my original experimental inflection point calculations, there's no change worth noting – expected with the buy:sell, the predominate metric, so balanced. On my newer version, which includes some other factors, six of six metrics improved. It is ready to signal a move up.

Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

HardToLove]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 09:31:03 -0400 # Trds: 138, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 641735, AvTrSz: 4650
Min. Pr: 0.2460, Max Pr: 0.2690, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2592
# Buys, Shares: 64 277317, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2601
# Sells, Shares: 70 354417, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2585
# Unkn, Shares: 4 10001, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2549
Buy:Sell 1:1.28 (43.2% “buys”), DlyShts 218208 (34%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 61.57%

Not a bad day! Some good news in the quarterly report (potential auto customer introduced Axion to potential partner(s?) for second-source of the PbC batteries) seemed to generate enough bullishness to offset the sellers' desire to exit, as evidenced by the buy:sell (all the averages are back near normal levels too now) and VWAP action today vs. Prior days: $0.2609, $0.2588, $0.2513, $0.2492, $0.2466, $0.2417, $0.2372, $0.2446 and $0.2592. I think the recognition that there's no assured near-term increase in revenues, leaving another capital raise on the table for a year or so out, muted the potential response.

Some context on the price action might be useful here. Note the prices where the weight of the volume is.

$0.2460-$0.2475: 018500 shares, 02.88% of volume, VWAP $0.2462
$0.2500-$0.2530: 102767 shares, 16.01% of volume, VWAP $0.2504
$0.2550-$0.2590: 124500 shares, 19.40% of volume, VWAP $0.2558
$0.2600-$0.2649: 123400 shares, 19.23% of volume, VWAP $0.2618
$0.2650-$0.2690: 226068 shares, 35.23% of volume, VWAP $0.2666

On the technical front, daily short sales continue elevated and all the averages I track, 10, 25, 50 and 100-day, have moved above the long-term calculated short sales trend line and are rising: 25.04 %, 16.08%, 11.02% and 11.55%. Daily trade volume is still elevated, compared to recent trends, and is in the process of normalizing ATM.

Average trade size is at the low-mid-range of what I think is retail. The market-makers, including the recent new entrants, are having to work harder. This is supported by the changes in bid/ask that were seen today, decidedly less bullish than prior days. Of 15 bid changes I spotted 6 were increases and 9 were decreases (some uncovered by exhaustion of better bids). Of the 13 ask changes, 4 were increases (some uncovered) and 9 were decreases. In spite of that, VWAP and buy:sell do show that there's not a large imbalance (yet?) in the buyers and sellers.

On my original experimental inflection point calculations, there's no change worth noting – expected with the buy:sell, the predominate metric, so balanced. On my newer version, which includes some other factors, six of six metrics improved. It is ready to signal a move up.

Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.

HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-18935501 18935501
HardToLove]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 08:06:07 -0400
HardToLove]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1866181-axion-power-concentrator-237-may-16-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013?source=feed#comment-18935181 18935181
You aren't culpable there. We are all working in ignorance. It is the presentation of all the possibilities from all the POVs and spawned by the interactions that help us navigate the darkness presented to us.

All of us will be wrong and all of us will be right, likely at various points, as we go through this process.

MHO,
HardToLove]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 07:54:34 -0400
You aren't culpable there. We are all working in ignorance. It is the presentation of all the possibilities from all the POVs and spawned by the interactions that help us navigate the darkness presented to us.

All of us will be wrong and all of us will be right, likely at various points, as we go through this process.

MHO,
HardToLove]]>