southbeach

Android, iPhone Ride Rising Tide

was about to comment on that 600 a month! thanks for taking care of it. always worth a re-read before publishing an article, particularly things like ARPU figures...


On Oct <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver... 11:08 PM KenC wrote:

> You wrote, "The US carriers will eventually run out of people who
> want to permanently increase their phone bills $ 600</span> a month"
>
>
> Strangely, noone so far has commented upon your math. Presumably,
> above, you meant year, but even the, you are implying that data plans
> are $<span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span> a month, which they are not. They are $<span title="Convert
> this amount" class="currency_conver... to $<span
> title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> a month.
>
> I have an iPhone <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span>G, and my data plan is $<span title="Convert this amount"
> class="currency_conver... a month. Why? I live in
> an EDGE area, with <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span>G <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span> miles away. I pay the EDGE rate even though when I'm in
> <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span>G-land, I get <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span>G speeds.
>
> So, data plans are not as outrageous as you seem to believe.

Is the Time Right for Nokia?

Sweating bullets won't cut it. No SVP or EVP fires themself, or admits the true extent of the gap between their skills and what a company needs to reinvent itself. Self deception and poised speeches skating over the evidence is far more comforting. Gerstner was an outsider...

Nokia's trend loss in high end is horrific, and they seem to be always 2-3 years too late in responding to market trends (remember the flip phone debacle...).

Thanks Keith for an interesting and thought provoking article.


On Sep 20 05:51 PM davidrdesign wrote:

> You had me all the way until this: "Nokia’s present strategy of multiple
> handset products looks flawed and dated. The key today is applications
> and services not hardware design. Developers want fewer platforms
> and I suspect so do customers. Nokia's management and the essential
> components of its strategy has barely changed over the last decade.
> It is time for a change."
>
> The inference here is that Nokia doesn't know this or is ignoring
> it. There aren't. They're just too big to make it happen fast enough.
> But I know they know. They're working on it and sweating bullets
> about it.

Buying Apple Today: Like Buying Microsoft in 1998?

"Apple has 100 million credit card-registered iTunes users who have access to one-touch purchasing. This will swell, conservatively, by 4-6 million customer per quarter as iPhone and iPod touch devices require syncing and loading. No company on earth will have what Apple has within 2 years, and that's key to the software portion of the business."

Just to add a detail to this good point. In the mobile value chain, so called 'operator billing' - where the consumer pays for items via their monthly operator/carrier phone bill - adds a massive cost to the transaction flow, which makes the proposition less appealing to content providers and application store owners. So App Store could easily be not just the largest application store in the world, but the most efficient/profitable since it reduces the excess profit grab of the operators for their billing services.


On Sep 11 06:34 AM Timeline Strategy Consulting wrote:

> I think you're wrong, and here's why.
>
> In 1998</span>, Microsoft had established a massively dominant operating
> system and business suite (Office) business, as well as leading market
> shares in database, server, and other enterprise. There was little
> that it did in which it did not lead. Thus, its growth outlook was
> capped. It's ironic that Microsoft's current dominance in operating
> systems (93.06% for Microsoft vs. 4.87% for Mac via one measurement)
> is often used as the defense of investing in MSFT or against investing
> in AAPL. Such dominance is more risk than opportunity, for the company
> and for the shareholder.
>
> Contrasted, there is no space in which Apple competes, other than
> music players (which have now declined to 18% of its revenue) where
> it holds more that 10% market share. Not desktop or laptop computers,
> and despite the success of iPhone, not mobile handsets.
>
> Here's an open question for you. How can you financially value a
> business that is:
>
> <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span>. Already massive (<span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span> million units sold worldwide for at least $<span title="Convert
> this amount" class="currency_conver... per unit,
> or $<span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span> billion)
> <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span>. Growing massively (20% year over year)
> <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span>. Technologically up for grabs
> <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span>. The next consumer-driven revolution
> <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span>. Led by hardware but followed by software
>
> This, of course, is the smartphone market, and Apple's swiftly-growing
> position here on the technical side is somewhat muted by the manner
> in which it recognizes revenue via the 2-year subscription model.
> I am admittedly biased in favor of (long) Apple, but I believe that
> they are building an unassailable position in handsets and applications
> that go with them. Simply put, the competition is confused and scrambling,
> consumers are flocking, and Apple got 95% of the ecosystem right
> at exactly the point that the terrain was unclaimed.
>
> One practical example - there is currently a 5-8 week wait time for
> iPhone <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span>GS at various T-Mobile locations in the Netherlands and at
> other carriers throughout Europe. At those same locations, you can
> obtain practically any other handset the same day, but Apple can't
> make theirs fast enough. What's next? China, of course, and perhaps
> that's even the reason why these handsets are in short supply currently.
>
>
> And here's one point that should not be overlooked - Apple has <span
> title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> million credit card-registered iTunes users who have access to one-touch
> purchasing. This will swell, conservatively, by 4-6 million customer
> per quarter as iPhone and iPod touch devices require syncing and
> loading. No company on earth will have what Apple has within <span
> title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> years, and that's key to the software portion of the business.<br/>
>
> Practically speaking, AAPL sees $<span title="Convert this amount"
> class="currency_conver... earnings in 2010, which
> at a P/E of <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span> yields a share price of $<span title="Convert this amount"
> class="currency_conver...
>
> So, in summary, Apple's potential rests upon this area in which they
> snuck in. Once there, they quickly established something simultaneously
> untouchable by competition and very appealing to consumers, and that's
> the appeal.
>
> By the way, I think that you forget the 'not' in this sentence:<br/>
>
> "Of course, if you're buying Apple, you're too terribly interested
> in the assets."

The Case for Moving iTunes to the Cloud

or everyone could buy expensive (though admittedly very nice looking) Apple time capsules...

The Bull Run Begins This Week

wish that it were so. you should have clarified what kind of bull run you meant...maybe a BS run...?

The Bull Run Begins This Week

I believe the bulls run in Pamplona


On Jan 18 02:35 PM CautiousInvestor wrote:

> I make a habit of being as respectful as possible on this board and
> others but this article taxes my restraint.
>
> And while there may be an Obama bounce, though that is not certain
> as many earnings will be released next week, the structural aspects
> of this decline are worsening as they surface.
>
> Declining estimates of economic growth, rising foreclosures, collapsing
> industrial production, growing estimates of what is needed in the
> stimulus package, rising estimates of banking sector losses and growing
> unemployment are simply the first things that come to mind.
>
> If we face deflation and the corrective actions are not equal to
> the task, we are some ways off from the streets of Barcelona where
> the bulls run.

Can You See Apple Under $60?

Reagan, fair comment about my Apple baiting motivations (at least in part). I apologize for my slide into partiality, and giving in to the urge to tease the fan club.

I guess I've been so (profitably) bearish since October that its effected my overall sentiment about the market's appetites for stocks, even good ones, and I see 09 in general being a grizzly year. Still, maybe 40 was just a shade too far, even for a nightmare market. But I think the stock has persistent downside risk from 85, especially until the extent and duration of the US consumer recessions becomes clear. Frankly I'd be happy to see Apple irrationally back at $200, since it would mean the economy would be back on track. Until then its volatility city, only for the day traders and foolhardy.

Apple Will Be Fine!

I've said in the past that Apple's stock was due for a fall (when it was at 95), and that its had its best days (and received a few thumb's down 'votes' from the usual Apple sheep!) I posted a pretty depressing prediction that the stock could touch 60 bucks this year. Apple will be a good company for years to come, even without Jobs, who is a unique and talented character. Would I buy the stock at 60? Perhaps. But the days of $203 are over. Look elsewhere for 'insanely great' growth.

Can You See Apple Under $60?

Apple is a decent company with some good products. Still, it´s been overvalued for some time - the user/fan/Jobs premium is alive and well. Expected dividend payments from the stock in the next 5 years? $0. Mmm, nice. The market was full of amateurs (and some pros too) just imagining the logic free valuation of Apple would take it through $200 and beyond. This Bear has teeth, that's for sure, but the problem was with Apple's pumped valuation. Now the cheap money steroids have been confiscated, it could easily drift down to the low 50s. Still, it could hit 100 again in a few years (2-3). In the meantime, a lot of fairly inexperienced investors (and hey, I've taken a bath on some finance stocks too) will become seasoned investors - hard lessons though. Apple could hit $40 a at trough, and I'd say its a reasonable buy there.

What Are Some of the Best Hedge Fund Managers Doing?

very interesting. thanks for the reporting and insights.

Research in Motion's Storm: Why It Matters

RIMM makes good products. The problem is there's a pretty significant recession that started recently. This will accelerate the loss of business and finance jobs, and hit RIMM's core audience. Also, the consumer will be spending less and playing it carefully for a couple of years. Look for RIMM stock to flirt with the low 40's some time in the next 3-6 months as the reality of the recession hits investors. Is RIMM a good buy in the low 40s? Hmm, that's a tough one. If they can successfully build the consumer segments they're targeting, then I'd say probably. Same issue with Apple - likely their stock will move to the 80s. With patience in mind, I'd take out pretty significant long positions in both companies once the price points hit low 40s and low 80s respectively. The silly prices of the last year were driven by amateur have a go investors and dreamers believing their own baseless stories and outlooks. This painful recession has at least cured some of these people of their RIMM and Apple at 200 easy money visions.

Five Reasons RIMM Will Continue to Fall

ok, scratch that 53 buy level on RIMM; looks like it will fall to that today, so plenty of time to buy in at a lower level. pretty crazy to watch a decent company's stock lose 11% in an hour of trading. surely this stock can't fall to 40, or further...

Five Reasons RIMM Will Continue to Fall

Agree RIMM was crazy overvalued in the mid hundreds, but I think this valuation goes too far. I exited my entire RIMM position in the hundreds, and also closed out Apple at the same time, and the market then backed me. All that said, I may well be a buyer on RIMM at 53 or so, and Apple at 85.

Five Reasons RIMM Will Continue to Fall

good article. RIMM's a decent outfit, but the stock is overvalued. has been for a long time. I hope most of you got out at 140 as I did, then went short to monetize the flip side! anyone still holding on, I'd either liquidate now, or if you have the stomach, wait for the next suckers bounce and then get out. all the Canadian bank analysts were convinced the stock would go to 200, but they've been, and will be, proved both wrong and biased in their analysis.

Complete Web Browsing On Your Cell Phone? Not Yet

Quite right XamaX. The iPhone should be rebranded the 'godphone'. Since I got mine I've become smarter (up 721% in the markets YTD), more sexy (dumped ageing wife for hottie young millionaire chick) and quit work (since the iPhone goes to work for me dressed in my clothes, and is actually better at my job since it says "Boom" and "Wouldn't it be cool" all day and co workers caress its UI). I now live in South Beach in a 10,000 sq ft condo I bought for $100 (down from 10 mill) just flaming innocent folk on blog posts all day.