southbeach

Are We Poised for Another Great Bull Market?

JG, not sure if you're going Long on provocation just fishing for responses, but it's working! Anyway, though I agree this is likely a Government sponsored "bull" market bought at high cost by our future tax contributions, I'd be wary of betting on an imminent tide turn. Lots of sideline money missed the March steroid rally, and this is providing upside support in the face of fairly non convincing evidence of imminent recovery. I think the lows are in for the year, and we may not see any significant correction before EOY (though of course we're all looking for the sign to double short the market, and then plow profits into buying the next rise...)

Does anyone know of any good studies on the effect on equity valuation of massive aggregated fund pools which our pension and investment fund create? Seems to me there's a constant upward pressure on multiples from more and more capital chasing equity exposure/upside. Wondering if it's leading to a somewhat permanent shift to equities becoming too expensive on a risk adjusted basis?

On Sep 30 08:33 AM JG Savoldi wrote:

> Our model says that we're about to get the answer to the question
> very soon. We're expecting a 22% crash into October 13th as the
> SPX kicks-off a larger degree decline toward 529</span> later this
> year/early 2010.
>
> The BAM Model is not based on Elliott Wave Theory, but I'm also seeing
> a potential structure that would fit very nicely with our forecast.
>
>
> I'll elaborate more on this thought on our blog later this week and
> post a few charts etc. but if you look at the SPX 11-21-08 low as
> a point of origin, and observe the <span title="Convert this amount"
> class="currency_conver... Fibonacci relationship
> between what could be interpreted as an A.B,C structure into the
> recent highs, that potential large 4th wave expanding triangle pattern
> would project down to SPX <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span> in a "D" wave.
>
> My interest in this pattern is that my model is calling for a 50%
> crash over the next 2-5 months (target <span title="Convert this
> amount" class="currency_conver... as I said) but
> it's then predicting what appears to be a melt-up to SPX <span title="Convert
> this amount" class="currency_conver... before a
> further collapse into 2012-2014.
>
> That would fit very, very nicely with this idea of a large degree
> Elliott wave expanding triangle 4th.
>
> Regardless of structure, we're short here and expecting the crash
> to start accelerating to the downside later today as we enter the
> first of three crash zones contained in October.
>
> 9/30--10/2
>
> 10/13--10/14
>
> Follow us on Twitter for the rest of the details!
>
> bit.ly/l3hv8

Cramer: Dow Could Drop Another 14%, Oil's Going to $50

Neither Obama or McCain would do a great job with a very difficult economy. I'd bet though that if you add up the cost of the current presidency to American taxpayers (mainly war related costs and associated excessive oil price), it would still be cheaper to have a democrat managing the budget. At least with tax and spend, you'd get some services as a result, instead of a vast sunk cost and a new Vietnam to slink away from.