southbeach

Own Gold? Time to Fold

Alan, I was a little skeptical about this article when you first published it on SA 11 months ago. Just wanted to comment that it's stuck in my mind ever since! Given the price history of gold since then (and this is not an 'i told you so' comment), do you have any thoughts on 'what went wrong'? Was it the analysis or the timing which was at fault? I'm no gold bug, and frankly am more focused on the potential oscillation timing between deflation and inflation, and how to trade that (more to protect real value of assets versus inflation or sub-market returns than SA). One thing is clear - the gold market, and what drives pricing, is a complex set of issues. Now I've heard that the big dealers are short the metal, so maybe it (nearly) is "time to fold".

Dennis Gartman on Gold, Oil, Government and the Economy

interesting reading. while I don't buy some of the stuff (nuclear power our saviour, peak oil a nonsense), I'd back him vs. Mr. "if you own gold, its time to fold" on the forecast that gold will likely appreciate decently this year. In the few weeks since that now infamous "time to fold" article, gold has jumped from 725 to 903. Also agree that physical gold is a big expense to pay for the (hopefully) low % risk of really bad scenarios vs ETF.

What Are Some of the Best Hedge Fund Managers Doing?

very interesting. thanks for the reporting and insights.