Boruma

8 Comments

    • LDK Solar: Forecasting Sunny Skies in Q2 Earnings [view article]
      What about other Chinese solars such as Trina Solar, CSIQ etc. Jul 11 04:56 PM
    • China ADRs: Severe Loss in June [view article]
      I agree with Gebby. TSL has the best fundamentals and track record (which is important in this sector) they look the cheap at current levels - relative to their peers. Jul 03 03:03 PM
    • The 'Problem' With Solar Companies is Not Really a Problem [view article]
      GS's remarks on cashflow were linked to concerns over the continuing availability of credit to fund growth and also ability to refinance debt which in some companies will be terming out over the next 12 months. The GS analysis was based on their knowledge of the bond market and capital market funding sources which have deteriorated since the start of the credit crunch. BUT it is an oversimplification and fundamentally ignores the fact that the bank debt markets (where the brokerages are less experienced in my opinion) are eagerly stepping in to fill the void (particularly in Asia) i.e. renewable energy companies with good fundamentals are not having any difficulty accessing short term bank credit - in the current environment it is impossible to foresee a cash flow crisis in the sector! Jul 03 02:46 PM
    • Will Some Solar Companies Face a Cash Crunch? [view article]
      Envoy: I disagree with your assessment. (1) This type of negative carry is completely normal in high growth sectors; and (2) Regarding availability of credit, although I agree that the traditional bond market is difficult (currently) I can assure you that the bank market is enthusiastically taking up the slack. The renewable sector (e.g. solar, wind, waste etc.) has become very fashionable for banks and in fact is one of the few areas of banking that is expanding since the credit crunch began a year ago - a quick review of the recruitment pages will verify this.

      Disclosure: Although I work in project and energy (bank) financing however I have no dealings with any of the names mentioned in this article.       Jul 02 04:01 PM
    • Why MBIA's Change of Plans Makes Sense [view article]
      Most investors who have traditionally bought muni and public infrastructure bonds from the likes of MBIA would be insane to reward the company by once again paying away part of their return for New MBIA and for this reason it is a bad use of the $900m. I would also not downstream the cash - not until some stability returns to the market. So if waiting for a year is an option I would consider it to be more appropriate from having yet another failure. Jun 12 11:58 AM
    • First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim? [view article]
      CORRECTION: meant to add the word "not" after "has" in the first line Apr 29 12:17 PM
    • First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim? [view article]
      I agree with the general sentiment that Stephen has really thought through his arguments on the true economic cost. However I would also be shy on solar stocks (for now) as with similar sectors which depend on leverage and the availability of bank credit (directly or indirectly). Many of the big commercial schemes which buy PV product are getting stuck now because banks are suddenly tightening terms or simily pulling out deals. I imagine that a similar trend will emerge in the residential market. This negative effect caused by the credit crunch should play out over the next year, possibly longer, and at that point I will reassess my cautious position. Apr 29 12:13 PM
    • General Discussion on TSL
      I believe that expanding companies such as TSL and similar enterprises which depend on the availability of cheap debt for end user projects (which ultimately buy their product) are vulnerable in the short term. The growth which has underpinned the sector over the past 3 years has been significantly helped by banks et al willing to make debt available at attractive terms and gearing for PV projects which end up purchasing their equipment. Also high growth markets such as Spain will reduce their attractive tariffs in Sep08. Whilst I concede that PV and other renewables look attractive when oil and gas prices are high and governments are increasingly promoting alternative energy, I still strongly believe that firms which are overly dependent on leverage for expansion will come under severe pressure going forward - possibly 2 years or longer.

      I do not hold any stock in TSL or any other PV company nor am I short the stocks.       Apr 22 08:40 AM
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