I agree with Gebby. TSL has the best fundamentals and track record (which is important in this sector) they look the cheap at current levels - relative to their peers.
The 'Problem' With Solar Companies is Not Really a Problem [View article]
GS's remarks on cashflow were linked to concerns over the continuing availability of credit to fund growth and also ability to refinance debt which in some companies will be terming out over the next 12 months. The GS analysis was based on their knowledge of the bond market and capital market funding sources which have deteriorated since the start of the credit crunch. BUT it is an oversimplification and fundamentally ignores the fact that the bank debt markets (where the brokerages are less experienced in my opinion) are eagerly stepping in to fill the void (particularly in Asia) i.e. renewable energy companies with good fundamentals are not having any difficulty accessing short term bank credit - in the current environment it is impossible to foresee a cash flow crisis in the sector!
Will Some Solar Companies Face a Cash Crunch? [View article]
Envoy: I disagree with your assessment. (1) This type of negative carry is completely normal in high growth sectors; and (2) Regarding availability of credit, although I agree that the traditional bond market is difficult (currently) I can assure you that the bank market is enthusiastically taking up the slack. The renewable sector (e.g. solar, wind, waste etc.) has become very fashionable for banks and in fact is one of the few areas of banking that is expanding since the credit crunch began a year ago - a quick review of the recruitment pages will verify this.
Disclosure: Although I work in project and energy (bank) financing however I have no dealings with any of the names mentioned in this article.
Why MBIA's Change of Plans Makes Sense [View article]
Most investors who have traditionally bought muni and public infrastructure bonds from the likes of MBIA would be insane to reward the company by once again paying away part of their return for New MBIA and for this reason it is a bad use of the $900m. I would also not downstream the cash - not until some stability returns to the market. So if waiting for a year is an option I would consider it to be more appropriate from having yet another failure.
First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim? [View article]
I agree with the general sentiment that Stephen has really thought through his arguments on the true economic cost. However I would also be shy on solar stocks (for now) as with similar sectors which depend on leverage and the availability of bank credit (directly or indirectly). Many of the big commercial schemes which buy PV product are getting stuck now because banks are suddenly tightening terms or simily pulling out deals. I imagine that a similar trend will emerge in the residential market. This negative effect caused by the credit crunch should play out over the next year, possibly longer, and at that point I will reassess my cautious position.
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The 'Problem' With Solar Companies is Not Really a Problem [View article]
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Disclosure: Although I work in project and energy (bank) financing however I have no dealings with any of the names mentioned in this article.
Why MBIA's Change of Plans Makes Sense [View article]
First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim? [View article]
First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim? [View article]