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  • Autoliv: Its Business Is All About Safety, But The Same Can't Be Said For Its Stock [View article]
    Nice analysis. I was wondering if you had a feel for the impacts of currency/FX on ALV's revenues. The recent strengthening of the USD would make it seem that ALV would get a nice boost from this. With the Euro foreseen as being low for quite some time, doesn't that put ALV in a better position than in 2014?
    Mar 12, 2015. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders Are Buying AuRico Gold [View article]
    Thanks for the write-up. I came to own AUQ via the NXG acquisition. I would have been far better off if I sold prior to the acquisition but now I see I have a chance to average down along with the insiders!
    Oct 12, 2013. 01:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TransAct Your Way To Some Great Returns With This Company [View article]
    I have never seen such in-depth coverage of what recently was a micro-cap stock! I have owned TACT for years through the dark days of the recession, but unfortunately did not average down then. While the outlook seems rosy, and they have diversified from the core gaming printers, I have always been dismayed that Bart Shuldman and other execs do not participate in insider buys (a big reason why I did not average down).
    Oct 3, 2013. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy-Side Analyst Expects AutoZone To Deliver Strong Numbers [View article]
    Will be interesting to see what numbers they turn out. But I would think AutoNation, more than AutoZone, would benefit from the same trends seen in F and KMX. The propaganda I've seen regarding AZO's revenue increases are that consumers are holding onto vehicles longer, leading to replacement parts purchases by both end consumers and repair shops that use AZO as a supplier. So increasing sales of new cars should not benefit AZO as much, unless these new car buyers really are stopping at AZO or to buy fuzzy dice and aftermarket floor mats.
    Sep 24, 2013. 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long Case For Yadkin Valley Financial [View article]
    Nice write-up. I have YAVY (now YDKN) back from a merger arbitrage from buying ACBA shares and the stock has recovered nicely at this point.
    Aug 22, 2013. 02:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Attractive Arbitrage Opportunity In Supervalu [View article]
    I've been burned on such arbitrage situations before. SunPower common stock used to be dual classed, with a large spread between the Class A and B shares. When Total S.A. came with a 60% buyout offer, the tender offer was oversubscribed, and I was left holding many converted shares, instead of cash. The stock went down after the deal and has since been dragged to near nothing due to the larger solar sector issues.
    Jan 23, 2013. 02:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Crowning The Buyback King [View article]
    You might want to overlay AZO's long-term debt, AP, and inventory onto these charts.

    Now, AZO could successfully take themselves private in a few years. But it would be essentially the same as an debt-laden LBO.
    Aug 21, 2012. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equus Announces Second Quarter Net Asset Value [View article]
    Sounds like mgmt is winding down operations in order to liquidate. I'll be here waiting for the payout.
    Aug 16, 2012. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Autozone: Weak Consumer Spending Doesn't Hold Back This Stock [View article]

    I agree with the consumer-side trend you have presented. However, have you taken a look at the balance sheet and financials? AZO can continue to grow EPS by shrinking the float, but they are not simply using FCF, they are borrowing in order to shrink the float. Inventory and AP don't look that great either.
    Jul 24, 2012. 03:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Following David Einhorn Into Seagate [View article]
    Good points. It is a leap of faith that many value or "cigar butt" investors have to live with. Most of the stocks that meet the Dogs of the Dow or Magic Formula criteria usually fall into this category.

    To STX and WDC specifically, the enterprise market pays a much higher cost for business-critical disks. A 15K RPM SCSI SAS drive costs $250+ for each disk. In a SAN cabinet, you need many such disks. It's possible that cloud players like Google use consumer-grade disks strung together cheaply for Google Drive, Gmail, Docs. Still, it's a ton of storage. The price-per-byte has always spiraled downwards since HDDs came about.
    Jun 15, 2012. 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Following David Einhorn Into Seagate [View article]
    STX has traded for single-digit P/Es since well before the Thai floods.
    Jun 13, 2012. 06:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Following David Einhorn Into Seagate [View article]
    While it is true that SSD costs have been dropping steadily to the consumer's benefit, businesses such as large enterprise and cloud providers need tons of space. High-end, reliable platter drives are still the bread-and-butter. You cannot build out a petabyte SAN with SSDs anytime soon. If so.. I will eat my shorts.
    Jun 13, 2012. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Earnings Beat And Intel Deal, Cray Remains Undervalued [View article]
    Very good! I have held CRAY for 5+ years, though I had sold out of much of my position before the Intel pop. :( The stock shows up frequently on the Magic Formula screener.
    May 25, 2012. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amtech Trades Like It's Broke [View article]

    Nice writeup. I bought ASYS when it showed up in the Magic Formula screen and I subsequently saw the CFO make an open market purchase. I agree the market is discounting the stock a bit too far; EV/EBITDA ratio as calculated by Yahoo is a mind-boggling 0.86. A company like GE could acquire the company on the cheap and benefit during the next solar run-up.

    I have a few other similar solar/PV deep-value/value trap type stocks also from the screen: GTAT, PWER, VECO.
    Feb 14, 2012. 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Joel Greenblatt's Top Magic Formula Stocks [View article]
    Greenblatt's "Magic Formula" is a ranking system based on earnings yield and ROIC - there's no need for "good" ideas. :)
    Nov 25, 2011. 02:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment