Investor612

Barron's Banks on $100 Oil

A quote from the Barrons' article:

"In the next decade, oil indeed may hit $200 a barrel. But prices could fall to $100 a barrel by the end of this year if Saudi Arabia makes good on its pledge to increase production; global demand eases; the Federal Reserve begins lifting short-term interest rates; the dollar rallies, and investors stop pouring money into the oil market. China raised prices on retail gasoline and diesel fuel by 18% Thursday, in a move that is expected to curb demand."

Hmmm.

IF Saudi Arabia increases production.
IF global demand eases
IF the FED raises rates
IF the dollar rallies
IF investor bullishness on oil cools

That's a lot of "IF's" to making predictions on.

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

A very superficial and frankly silly analysis. Yes, lots of new reserves have been found. Reserves have actually grown. The flaw in making a simplistic conclusion on that increase is the different nature of the reserves. The recent finds are deeper and/or require more complex and costly measures to exploit. This increases the time it takes to produce from the new found reserves and decreases the rate of production once they come online.

America's Energy Policy: Coming to Terms with Reality

The article itself is spot on, some of the comments it inspired are not.
1. Panskeptic uses the exceptions to discredit the whole regarding the free market.
2. GlobalWarmingExaminer writes that "spending one trillion in Iraq is destroying our economy." I note that the US military estimates it has killed between 30 to 35 thousand foreign fighters in Iraq-people who have come from outside that country to attack US troops. Perhaps GlobalWarmingExaminer believes those jihadist nutjobs would be sitting around camel dung fires in the desert, holding hands, and singing "Kumbaya" if we abandoned Iraq. It's more logical to assume a great many of them would be attacking US, Western interests elsewhere. One wonders what that would cost in light of the huge drag on the economy and extra expense created by 9/11?
3.barnburner writes that Exxon hasn't cleaned up the mess from the Exxon Valdez spill (he ignores how much they've spent cleaning it up) and that these "idiots," referring to the oil industry, shouldn't be trusted in ANWR. One wonders why barnburner thinks shipping in oil from elsewhere is safer and that we regulate the oil industry so that it behaves responsibly in literally hundreds of other locations.
4. last we come to jjason, the man with all the answers. he wrotes that "OPEC must be broken up, making it illegal." Really? And just how does jjason propose to do that short of a military effort on the scale of WWII?