br1756

5 Comments

    • Is the Long Commute Still Worth It? [view article]
      James Howard Kunstler sounds to me like a strident nihilist, but I think he made the right call when he called exurban development the single largest misallocation of resources in the 20th century. High oil prices will highlight the folly of driving 60 miles to work. Jun 12 08:26 AM
    • 1,238 Billion Barrels of Oil Reserves: Is This an Oil Price Bubble? [view article]
      Let's do the math:

      85 million barrels per day times 365 days = 31.025 billion barrels/year

      So 1238 billion barrels = 40 years oil at current consumption rates

      If you up consumption to 100 million barrels per day, that works out to 34 years worth of oil.

      I don't know about you -- I am more than 34 years old. The idea that the lifeblood of the world economy could run out within the lifespan of a young adult is bone-chilling. I should think the warning bell has been sounded loud and clear with the latest rise in the price of oil.

      Incidentally, my take on peak oil is that the oil will not run out in 34 years, because there is no way we will achieve 100mbpd production. Rather, production shortfalls will force us to figure out how to get by on 60mbpd, and eventually 40mpbd. The story will be all about how we can weather the supply shocks while still trying to find technological alternatives to oil.       Jun 12 07:52 AM
    • Odds Favor Short-Term Slip in Crude Prices [view article]
      Of all the statistical arguments about the price of oil, this one seems easier to swallow than the ones which compare the price of oil to the price of gold -- oil is consumed, while gold is recycled. As we approach permanent oil shortages I think it's very reasonable to consider ways to think about the oil price in terms of itself (or in terms of as-yet-nonexistent oil substitutes). May 15 09:40 AM
    • Gold and Oil Price Limits [view article]
      A quick reality check on the above comments.

      At 85 million barrels per day, 85x365 = 31,000 or 31 billion barrels.

      So a "huge find" of 33 billion barrels represents approximately one year's global consumption at today's rates.

      What will limit us in the end will be the rate of extraction long before all the oil is gone, and by this measure it looks like it will be well before 30 years are up before we are down to say, 40 million barrels per day. Simply look up the rate of production from the world's major producers, and apply some of the depletion curves which have already occurred in Mexico, the North Sea, the USA, etc.


       May 14 10:21 PM
    • Emerging Markets' Oil Appetite to Exceed U.S. This Year [view article]
      There are no suitable replacements for oil in too many parts of our economy, most notably transportation, which is 95% oil-based. (Presumably the 5% represents electric propulsion -- trains and trolley busses, and perhaps LNG.)

      See:

      www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oi...

      So there is no lid at $200, unless people stop driving, which at some point they will be forced to do. (If not at $200 oil then at $300 oil or $500 oil.)

       Apr 22 08:04 PM
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