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Fractalshift

Fractalshift
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  • Regression To Trend: A Perspective On Long-Term Market Performance [View article]
    You neglect to take into consideration that over half the population of the world is still agrarian. There is still tremendous room for growth.
    Dec 3, 2013. 07:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unconventional ETF Profit Extraction: In 2 Years UDOW +134%, S&P Is Riskier And Only +43% [View article]
    Do you think that the entrance and exit points could be determined by using a Double Standard Deviation channel to monitor the expected price range? (bollinger bands)
    Oct 27, 2013. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Very Large Tree Is Falling In The Stock Market Forest [View article]
    But we may have factored out "real estate as an economic driver" as a the prime economic cause celeb....the economy started to recover (jobs, demographic shifts, growth of confidence,etc...) before, and therefore it seems that homebuilding has become a lagging indicator predicated on the confidence level.
    Jun 1, 2013. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Worth Holding Cash And Being Patient? [View article]
    My own opinion: I agree with you that the dividend growth model can be rather boring....but it works! I keep a few dollars out for some small trades...I am primarily a dividend investor too but have kept about 3 to 5 % of my portfolio in cash to take advantage of the occasional ST trade, and so far so good! I also feel confident knowing that the other 95% is focused on income and growth... but just wanted to say, I hear ya. There is no crime in keeping a few dollars liquid to play with, just keep it small and stay disciplined and maybe you will enjoy investing just a little bit more!
    May 7, 2013. 09:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Will You Be When The Party's Over? [View article]
    I have to question the logic of entrusting 70% to fixed income securities. When the music stops, and everyone scrambles for a seat, aren't the bonds going to be the most vulnerable to large scale and long term devaluation? Am I the only one who remembers the 1997 bond crash? It seems to be forgotten now but it was very painful at the time.
    Apr 14, 2013. 08:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Bond Funds Riskier Than Bonds? [View article]
    The purpose of a fund is to switch risk from a single holding to a diversified basket of similar securities. Certainly for smaller investors this makes good sense. For those managing larger amounts of capital, say 100K or more, owning individual bonds is not that much harder and could (for the reasons above) provide better peace of mind. The investor is in control, not the fund manager. The bond may still mature to a full return (of principal). It's that peace of mind factor that has me on the side of bonds rather than funds. But, to each his own...in this environment it is wise to treat cautiously. Risk is in everything and everywhere, even in the stodgy old bond market! As always Caveat Emptor is the lesson of the day...today and every day!
    Nov 9, 2012. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Bond Funds Riskier Than Bonds? [View article]
    The issue I have with this article is that the present value of future cash flows is not the same thing as the NAV of the mutual fund on any given day. While the math works out the practical trading does not add up. When a bond fund loses value (the underlying asset loses value which is reflected in declining NAV) there are additional factors which are effected. Factors not accounted for (because they are hard to measure) in the calculation above. Sentiment and ratings (such as ValueLine or Morningstar ratings, or plain investor sentiment) will be affected by the change in NAV and the change taking place in the bond market (suddenly going from Bullish to Bearish) and this has additional effects on the price (even more so when dealing with an ETF or closed ended fund).
    This removes the linearity of the equation and demands the calculation include these non-linear variables. Simple math, when applied to complex problems, obscures the deeper issues and fails to account for more complex market variables.
    Nov 9, 2012. 01:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AT&T (T) is requesting the Department of Labor allow it to use $9.5B in preferred equity interest in its wireless division to help cover a pension shortfall that totaled $10.2B at the end of 2011. The contribution, which AT&T hopes will be approved by the end of 2013, will entitle cash distributions of $560M/year. AT&T would have the right to buy back the preferred interest after 5 years. (Verizon/Prudential[View news story]
    No it does not. One thing has nothing to do with the other. The assets in the retirement plan were debased by the market crash but outflows from the retirement plan continued to retirees. Now there is a shortfall.
    Oct 23, 2012. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mom-and-pop mortgage holders aren't the only ones who like to take advantage of low rates by refinancing. The month isn't over yet, but corporations have issued about $120B in debt, the busiest August since Dealogic began compiling records in 1995. The question is whether corporate treasurers (often good at timing) are signalling a bottom in interest rates. [View news story]
    Lower cost of capital increases ROE, ROI, and virtually every other measure. When we consider the serious downside to second stock issues (high cost and lower market perceptions, not to mention dilution) buy backs may become fashionable!
    Aug 29, 2012. 09:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Moved My Dollar? [View article]
    Interesting analysis, the question I am left with is: What could happen at that point in the future when the supported ratio between the US Dollar and the Chinese Yuan finally cracks?
    Jul 30, 2008. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Better Off Now Than 5 Years Ago? [View article]
    The problem with America is the old saw: I went to sleep without a care in the world, and while I slept I had this dream that I was rich living on the beach in Fiji...then I woke up, and while I liked my life before I went to sleep... now I feel lousy!
    Americans have gotten fat and lazy on a steady dose of cheap credit, ever rising assets and low inflation...sometimes you're the windshield sometimes you're the bug...
    Apr 22, 2008. 11:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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