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    • ON: Fri Apr 25th 08:10 AM
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      MSFT should walk away at this point. YHOO declines in value each passing day and is it really worth the grief to try and integrate such differing cultures especially when their is so much animosity at YHOO.

      MSFT would be much better served by walking away and instead making TWX and offer for AOL instead. That would be a win/win. MSFT gets the foothold it is looking for and Time Warner gets to unload a boat anchor that has been dragging on it's performance and valuation.

      Honestly I don't understand why MSFT does not try to partner with a cable company or make a bid for a satellite company like DISH. There might be antitrust issues but, imagine the impact on say an MSFT, AOL, DISH combination on Google.

      Regardless at this point the bid for YHOO is just a used wipe who's time has come to be flushed.........

      What would be my bets on this? I'm thinking May $25 Put's against YHOO and May $32 calls for MSFT.
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    • ON: Wed Apr 23rd 20:57 PM
      Commented on:
      Yum! Q1 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
      Expect them not to make their Q2 numbers if the Chinese people really does go through with their American boycott starting May 2. You can thank CNN, Obama and Clinton for this one. Well at least we can thank the cowardly French for ticking them off more and drawing some disdain away.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Apr 23rd 20:43 PM
      Commented on:
      E*Trade: Primed To Turn Around?
      Not to fire everyone up again but, no matter how you slice it the loss was still twice what was anticipated. The stock should have dropped or at best stayed flat. Of course management is going to paint a rosy picture. They have to give some hope with an earnings report like that. They are losing money period. What happens when they run out of corporate assets to sell off? What happens as their mortgage portfolio faces increasing defaults and they are forced to foreclose. What many people don't seem to realize is that ALL the financial firms are hiding much more damage then they are revealing.

      The first write down comes when the mortgage becomes non performing because people stop paying. They still get to show the note as an asset even though it is not being paid back. The real pain comes after they foreclose and put the property out to auction. This is not being done yet on any reasonable scale. They are resisting initiating large scale foreclosures because they do not want to book those losses. Problem is the longer they wait the further property values decline and the greater the total loss will be.

      That is the pain that is yet to come to ETrade and everyone else. I personally know of several home owners that can no longer afford their mortgages because of rate resets. They can't sell because the value has dropped too much. All have stopped making payments for more than 10 months now. Know what the best part is? They have not even been contacted yet by the lien holders!! This is a more common occurrence than is being let on.

      Yes, ETrade might be a long term buy, but not now after this unjustified run up on worse than expected earnings. Investors are scared and desperate right now and even the slightest glimmer of hope has them throwing money in that direction. If the company had not given that glimmer of hope those earnings would have sent the stock back down to $2 or worse.

      Here is another rub for you. This was an exceptional week for the DOW. Up over 500 points. I expect a significant reversal next week. I also expect that over the weekend as their excitement wears off the stock will drop back down anyway. Get ready for the analysts to downgrade them again because of their earnings and worse than expected mortgage performance. But, hey don't worry about it. If the stock drops low enough you can either short on the bankruptcy rumors that will fly or buy on the takeover ones.
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    • ON: Wed Apr 23rd 07:36 AM
      Commented on:
      Apple Taking Notes From Disney
      You want a Disney comparison to Apple? I'll give you a perfect up/down crash and burn failed recovery with just one name! Britney Spears...

      How does her example compare with Apple? Well lets see! You have the hottest product of your corporate life and you tie yourself to one company (ATT) with a multi year exclusivity contract. Next you count on purchasers to actually activate with this company as it is critical to your earnings projections.

      How about missed opportunities? You finally move to an Intel chip platform but, make your operating system exclusive to to that chip on your hardware platform only!! Dumb move. Why? Because MSFT has released there worst O/S ever with Vista. You had the opportunity of a lifetime to gain significant market share by finally allowing your O/S to run on a standard PC. Lets face it. People that already buy your hardware will continue to do so, so why worry about that. Every residential customer I meet with Vista or XP have said they would absolutely by your O/S to put on their existing PC if priced at $200 or less. What they will not do is pay 5x that amount for hardware they don't need just to try your O/S.

      Oh and you missed the boat on China. 1.4 billion people and half of the with cell phones and you hold out for a revenue sharing contract? Are you insane? If you could sell an Iphone to every person in the USA but, with no revenue sharing contract would you turn away those sales? Well China would have been that many sales this year already. How is that ATT revenue sharing plan working out for you? What's that? More than 20% sold are not activated you say? How is that exclusivity deal working for you now?

      When you do stupid things you tend to take a fall that you can't fully recover from. Just ask Britney. Her novelty has worn off and so will the Iphone's and probably before you wake up to all the missed opportunities........
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