User 182177

A Missed Opportunity in Canadian Solar

asaf:

You wrote and I quote: "up more than 300% since I first bought it". Good for you. I also did not know that you had written a research article that mentioned CSIQ too.

I bought CSIQ after reading Dr. Yetiv's article, and I also bought TSL after reading his article as well.

As it turned out that CSIQ is a real gem, while TSL is a lemon, so far at least. One has to look at the future, so I decided to get rid of the weak one (TSL) and then use that money to beef up the strong one (CSIQ).

I might add that I have made far more money from CSIQ than the money I lost on TSL.

A Missed Opportunity in Canadian Solar

Shawnette:

CSIQ is your only solar stock, good for you.

I sold my TSL today, and beefed up on CSIQ -- choosing to hang my hat on STRENGTH. I see CSIQ is a real gem which was uncovered by Dr. Yetiv.

True, CSIQ was down big today (6-26-08), closed at 42.89 down 2.35 (or 5.19%). Over a one-year period, CSIQ still out-performs any other solar stock.

Confessions of a Shallow Solar Trader

I see nothing of value but "self aggrandizement".

Confessions of a Shallow Solar Trader

Steve Pluvia wrote and I quote: "I wasted 43 seconds reading this pointless scribble."
======================...

Steve: You are luckier than me. I am a slow reader, it wasted me twice as much time.

I see nothing of value but "self-aggrandizement".

A Missed Opportunity in Canadian Solar

After you have done below with the "BigChart"

Time is set to: 1 year
Frequency is set to: Daily
SMA (simple moving average) is set to: 200

*** You can change ticker to TSL or any other stock symbol.
*** Except FSLR, no other solar stock could stay above its 200-day MAVG early this year when solars had a sharp sell-off.

bigcharts.marketwatch....=

A Missed Opportunity in Canadian Solar

Notes of "user 182177" chart on CSIQ. (I just discovered this.)

If your "BigChart" already has default settings, your chart may display MAVG other than 200-day MAVG. Now do the following:

Time is set to: 1 year
Frequency is set to: Daily
SMA (simple moving average) is set to: 200

bigcharts.marketwatch....

A Missed Opportunity in Canadian Solar

Dr. Jack Yetiv's comment:

"One day does not make a pattern, of course, but CSIQ gave up 10% today and TSL held up nicely."

This comment made on 6-19-08 is interesting and true (but misleading, in a way, intended by the author): CSIQ was down 3.77. while TSL was up 0.38 on 6-19-08.
======================...

A bit of history here: (Following appeared as a comment on another article "Further Thoughts on Trina Solar …")

6-14-08 10:01 PM
An interesting observation by Aquaculture:

06-13-08 close.
CSIQ: 39.00 - TSL: 38.99
Its a neck-and-neck race Jack.
Have a great weekend.
----------------------...

But the closing prices on 6-19-08 were:

CSIQ --- 47.23 --- down 3.77
TSL ---- 39.36 --- up 0.38

The closing price certainly gives a better picture as to which horse is pulling ahead, rather than the changes in just one day (CSIQ down 3.77, TSL up 0.38).
======================...

Even with drastically different starting points, CSIQ was able to reach parity with TSL at 39 on 6-13-08 -- that was a tremendous display of strength on CSIQ's part already. Since then and until today, CSIQ continues to pull ahead and leaving TSL in the dust. CSIQ is the strongest stock in the strongest and the most promising sector - solar. It is my believe, CSIQ will continue to out-perform TSL for a long time to come.
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Final note: Dr. Jack Yetiv worked very hard and very diligently and for very long to uncover this gem (CSIQ), long before its meteoric rise to become the King of Performance and dethroned FSLR some weeks ago. CSIQ was Dr. Yetiv's top choice for a long time -- until TSL came along. Even so, he still considers that CSIQ is a better stock than any other stock in the solar sector, except TSL, of course.

When a stock's fundamental picture and technical picture agrees with one another, the chance for investor's success will be very much improved. However, if they disagree - be very cautious.

CSIQ has never been a weak stock. During the sharp sell-off of solars early this year, only two solars were able to stay above their 200-day MAVG -- CSIQ & FSLR.

CSIQ: Red line is its 200-day MAVG:
bigcharts.marketwatch....=

Relative performance: CSIQ vs TSL (along with FSLR & STP)
stockcharts.com/charts...

Further Thoughts on Trina Solar and the Solar Space

Atticvs Research's comment posted here earlier has caught my eyes. While wishing to remain silent, but his view is so foreign to me, I have no choice but to present the other side of the coin.

His statement, and I quote:
"It seems to me that with such a lot of extra product hitting the market that selling prices across the board for solar companies are in danger of softening as we get into 2009 and a growing awareness of this should act as a headwind for most solar stocks in later 2008."
======================...

For solar industry to parallel the rise of the semiconductor industry since early 1970s, the ASP of PV cells/modules/panels must continue to decline, the conversion efficiency (light to electricity) must keep improving, and the cost of making PV products must steadily reducing - either through the improvement of manufacturing efficiency or via economy of scale.

The market's size is not static, it responds dramatically to the ASP. As ASP declines, the market size (or demand for PV products) could experience an exponential rise - creating some big winners in the solar sector (similar to that during the rise of the semiconductor sector spanning 2 to 3 decades created dozens of 100- or more baggers.).

While 'Atticvs Research' considered that the decline in ASP as a "headwind" -- I, for one, happen to consider that to be the "tailwind" for solars.

Here comes the inherent problem with the fundamental analysis: When two people look at the same facts and same data, and agreed on both - and, yet reach two completely opposite conclusions. To me, for solar sector is to have any future, the ASP must decline.

Good or bad, when the ASP does decline? For a young industry, in the early stage of its mega-trend (like solar), the ASP decline is good -- because there is far more room for the market size to expand and far more room for manufacturing efficiency to improve. But, for a matured industry, in the late stage of its long life (like semiconductor), the ASP decline is bad -- because there is only a limited room for the market size to expand and only a very limited room for manufacturing efficiency to improve.

Conclusion:

The ASP's decline, if it is occurring in the early stage and continues to occur during its long-term rapidly growing phase of a new megatrend is GOOD -- it is this perfect condition of the incubator that many big-winners are born and then nurtured.

The ASP's decline, if it is occurring in the late stage and continues to occur during its aging life with limited growth prospects ahead is BAD -- it is exactly this condition that caused many once-great
stocks to go nowhere, or worse, suffered significant losses in their stock values.

For fundamental analysis, different people look at the identical fact and identical data, and agree on them -- yet, can reach entirely opposite conclusions. This is the problem inherent therein.

======================...

Footnote: About the neck-and-neck race between CSIQ and TSL, I would say that one-day's change is insignificant, because the next day the role could be reversed. In the early going, conceivably, they may very well take turns to take the lead. However, over a somewhat longer time span, like 6 months to a year, the divergence in their performances should become apparent.

Further Thoughts on Trina Solar and the Solar Space

An interesting observation by Aquaculture:

06-13-08 close.
CSIQ: 39.00 - TSL: 38.99
Its a neck-and-neck race Jack.
Have a great weekend.
======================

A bit of history here:

73.06: Was TSL's all-time-high (before the sharp sell-off of solars early this year.)
31.44: Was CSIQ's previous (12-26-2007) all-time-high (before the sharp sell-off of solars early this year.)

It WAS NOT a neck-and-neck, but it is now.

Now, place your bets which horse will pull ahead 6 months or a year from today.

TSL chart:
bigcharts.marketwatch....=

CSIQ chart:
bigcharts.marketwatch....=

Further Thoughts on Trina Solar and the Solar Space

(1) During the sharp sell-off of solars early this year:
CSIQ and FSLR are the only two solars that could stay above 200-day MAVG.

(2) During the recovery phase of solars from March to mid-May:
CSIQ, FSLR, and JASO are the only three solars that could take out Dec. 07 high.

(3) During current sharp sell-off of solars since mid-May to now:
CSIQ is the only solar that can stay above its 50-day MAVG.

Discussion: Of the three periods considered, CSIQ is the only solar that appears in ALL three.
There may be something special about CSIQ that the Market sees and many of us don't.

bigcharts.marketwatch....=

Which Solar Stocks Will Continue To Shine?

These are 6-month performance charts.
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The chart needs 6 months of data, thus SOL is not included.
All other stocks in Dr. Yetiv's article are in the charts.

Dr. Yetiv's favorite stock, CSIQ, is included in both charts, comparing to the rest. (CSIQ is a real gem.)


stockcharts.com/charts...


stockcharts.com/charts...

Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space

Table now OK, text below that needs to be updated.

Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space

As a new user, I had to sign up. When I came back, a guy already beat me to the punch.

JASO had a 3 for 1 split on 2-7-2008.
You did not take that into account.