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  • DCF Valuation For More Than 3000 Stocks

    I have created a three-stage DCF model to value more than 3000 stocks. The valuation was done with the following assumptions:

    - Growth for the first 5 years - The lower of estimated 5-year growth rate or past 5-year sales growth rate
    - Growth for the next 5 years - Half of the above mentioned rate
    - Terminal growth rate of 2%
    - Discount rates of 8%, 10%, 12%, 14%

    The DCF valuation model is only feasible for companies with at least slightly predictable cash flow, it doesn't work well in cyclical or biotechnology sectors, or for companies undergoing rapid change. As estimating a discount rate for each company is more art than science, I have used several discount rates to show potential undervaluation/overvaluation. Only companies with a profit this year, or estimated profit next year were valued. As I used a general formula for all stocks, there might be some extremes due to their growth rates/estimated profits.

    DOWNLOAD THE VALUATION OF MORE THAN 3000 STOCKS

    Below are some notable examples with upside/downside based on various discount rates (8,10,12,14):

    Ticker Name 8% 10% 12% 14%

    AAPL
    AMZN
    BAC
    BBL
    BHP
    BP
    BRK-A
    BTI
    BUD
    C
    CHL
    CMCSA
    COP
    CSCO
    CVX
    DIS
    FB
    GE
    GILD
    GOOGL
    GSK
    HD
    HSBC
    IBM
    INTC
    JNJ
    JPM
    KO
    MRK
    MSFT
    NVS
    ORCL
    PBR
    PEP
    PFE
    PG
    PM
    PTR
    QCOM
    RIO
    RY
    SAN
    SAP
    SLB
    SNY
    T
    TM
    TOT
    TSM
    UL
    UN
    UTX
    V
    VZ
    WFC
    WMT
    XOM
    Apple Inc.
    Amazon.com Inc.
    Bank of America Corporation
    BHP Billiton plc
    BHP Billiton Limited
    BP plc
    Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
    British American Tobacco plc
    Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV
    Citigroup Inc.
    China Mobile Limited
    Comcast Corporation
    ConocoPhillips
    Cisco Systems, Inc.
    Chevron Corporation
    The Walt Disney Company
    Facebook, Inc.
    General Electric Company
    Gilead Sciences Inc.
    Google Inc.
    GlaxoSmithKline plc
    The Home Depot, Inc.
    HSBC Holdings plc
    IBM
    Intel Corporation
    Johnson & Johnson
    JPMorgan Chase & Co.
    The Coca-Cola Company
    Merck & Co. Inc.
    Microsoft Corporation
    Novartis AG
    Oracle Corporation
    Petroleo Brasileiro
    Pepsico, Inc.
    Pfizer Inc.
    The Procter & Gamble Company
    Philip Morris International, Inc.
    PetroChina Co. Ltd.
    QUALCOMM Incorporated
    Rio Tinto plc
    Royal Bank of Canada
    Banco Santander, S.A.
    SAP SE
    Schlumberger Limited
    Sanofi
    AT&T, Inc.
    Toyota Motor Corporation
    Total SA
    Taiwan Semiconductor
    Unilever plc
    Unilever NV
    United Technologies Corp.
    Visa Inc.
    Verizon Communications Inc.
    Wells Fargo & Company
    Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
    Exxon Mobil Corporation
    94%
    -34%
    35%
    9%
    24%
    44%
    20%
    14%
    21%
    53%
    -6%
    75%
    9%
    45%
    22%
    -7%
    147%
    -3%
    213%
    75%
    15%
    2%
    -26%
    44%
    37%
    -2%
    42%
    5%
    7%
    18%
    28%
    99%
    123%
    11%
    9%
    -16%
    12%
    34%
    127%
    48%
    16%
    14%
    35%
    56%
    27%
    10%
    103%
    107%
    117%
    -6%
    0%
    1%
    38%
    33%
    62%
    22%
    6%
    63%
    -46%
    16%
    -7%
    6%
    23%
    1%
    -3%
    2%
    31%
    -19%
    47%
    -7%
    24%
    4%
    -21%
    103%
    -17%
    162%
    46%
    -2%
    -13%
    -36%
    24%
    16%
    -16%
    22%
    -11%
    -9%
    0%
    9%
    68%
    90%
    -6%
    -7%
    -28%
    -4%
    15%
    91%
    27%
    -1%
    -2%
    14%
    31%
    9%
    -5%
    72%
    75%
    83%
    -20%
    -15%
    -14%
    16%
    13%
    38%
    4%
    -9%
    39%
    -55%
    0%
    -20%
    -9%
    6%
    -14%
    -17%
    -13%
    13%
    -30%
    24%
    -20%
    6%
    -10%
    -32%
    69%
    -28%
    120%
    23%
    -15%
    -25%
    -45%
    7%
    -1%
    -28%
    5%
    -24%
    -22%
    -14%
    -7%
    43%
    63%
    -20%
    -20%
    -38%
    -18%
    -1%
    61%
    10%
    -14%
    -15%
    -3%
    11%
    -7%
    -18%
    47%
    49%
    55%
    -31%
    -27%
    -25%
    -2%
    -3%
    18%
    -11%
    -21%
    18%
    -62%
    -13%
    -31%
    -21%
    -8%
    -26%
    -28%
    -25%
    -1%
    -39%
    6%
    -30%
    -8%
    -21%
    -41%
    40%
    -37%
    87%
    5%
    -26%
    -35%
    -52%
    -7%
    -15%
    -37%
    -8%
    -35%
    -33%
    -26%
    -20%
    22%
    41%
    -31%
    -30%
    -46%
    -29%
    -14%
    37%
    -5%
    -25%
    -26%
    -16%
    -5%
    -19%
    -29%
    26%
    29%
    32%
    -41%
    -37%
    -35%
    -16%
    -16%
    2%
    -23%
    -31%

    Disclosure: The author is long BIDU, PANW, KORS.

    Jul 23 8:46 AM | Link | Comment!
  • My Current Portfolio - 7 Stocks For The Next Year

    1. Ambarella Inc (NASDAQ:AMBA)
    Ambarella is a leading developer of low-power, high-definition video compression and image processing semiconductors. Their products are used in high definition (NYSE:HD) cameras including security IP-cameras, wearable sports cameras, digital still cameras, and automotive video recorders. Ambarella technology is also used in television broadcasting infrastructure systems. The advancements in display technology have caused a tremendous growth in video content worldwide, estimated to have an average CAGR of 90% for 2011-2016. Their main competitive strength is high performance and low power and storage requirements, 75% of their workforce is in R&D. The company has a net cash position of 120 million, I have estimated their forward P/E at 15 with a growth rate near 20%.

    (click to enlarge)AMBA chart 2. Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG)

    Celgene Corporation discovers, develops, and commercializes therapies for cancer and immune-inflammatory related diseases in the United States and Europe. It's flagship drugs are Thalomid, Revlimid, Abraxane, Vidaza. Celgene is a leader in it's field, with many more products on the way. The company announced Q3 results recently, beating analyst estimates on revenue but coming short of EPS expectations and slightly increasing their yearly outlook. Insiders have been heavy buyers of the stock in the past 2 years.

    (click to enlarge)

    CELG chart

    3. Interactive Intelligence (NASDAQ:ININ)
    Interactive Intelligence Group, Inc. provides contact center and business communications solutions. It offers Interactive Intelligence Customer Interaction Center (CIC), a solution for voice, data, and process automation. The company provides its solutions for use in teleservices, insurance, banking, accounts receivable management, utilities, healthcare, retail, technology, government, and business services industries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. They are widely recognized as a leader in contact center solutions. I have written a more comprehensive article on my web for ININ.

    (click to enlarge) 4. Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (NYSE:KORS)

    Michael Kors Holdings Limited engages in the design, marketing, distribution, and retailing of branded women's apparel and accessories, and men's apparel. The company operates in three segments: Retail, Wholesale, and Licensing. As of March 30, 2013, it had 231 retail stores, including concessions in North America; and 73 international retail stores, including concessions in Europe and Japan. The company reported a 49 per cent jump in net income in Q£, beating Wall Street forecasts. Also, It now expects earning per share of $2.77 to $2.81 on revenue of $2.9bn to $3bn. It had previously raised its guidance in August, then expecting per-share earnings of $2.67 to $2.69 on comparable revenue. The brand has gained incredible momentum in the past couple of years, outgrowing many of it's rivals. There is still considerable potential, given that North America represents nearly 80% of sales, while they are gaining foothold in Asia and Europe, world's premier luxury goods markets. Despite it's high valuation, I still see a big profit potential in the stock, and I am not alone. Top investors like Mario Gabelli, Steve Mandel and Andreas Halvorsen hold it too.

    (click to enlarge)

    5. Maximus Inc (NYSE:MMS)
    MAXIMUS, Inc. provides business process services to various government health and human services agencies in the United States, Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom. It's expertise lies in administering government-sponsored programs, such as Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), health care reform, welfare-to-work, Medicare, child support enforcement, and other government programs. The company is a leading administrator of Medicaid and CHIP services in the United States, the premier provider of workforce-centered services in the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia. A pioneer of welfare reform, placing approximately 500,000 individuals into unsubsidized employment. Their main markets are exactly countries, which will in my opinion undergo significant budget restructurings and social program reforms. Maximus is in my opinion in the perfect spot to profit from these trends.

    (click to enlarge)

    6. Ulta Salon Cosmetics and Fragrance Inc
    The company operates specialty retail stores in the United States. Its stores offer over 20 000 3rd party as well as private branded cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, and skincare products, as well as related accessories and services.
    As of August 3, 2013 the Company operates 609 retail stores across 46 states and also distributes its products through their web. The competitive strength is apparent, it is the largest cosmetic chain in the US, offering the most comprehensive service to it's customers. Cosmetics is a high margin and stable business, and they have clearly a dominant position. Their latest results showed 25% sales growth, increased gross margins to 35.3% and it's loyalty program expanding at a 19% to a record 12 million members.(click to enlarge)

    7. United Therapeutics Corporation (NASDAQ:UTHR)United Therapeutics Corporation is a biotechnology company focused on the development and commercialization of drugs fighting cardiovascular, infectious diseases and cancer. The lead product, Remodulin, is approved in the U.S. and various countries around the world for both continuous subcutaneous and continuous intravenous infusion for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension (NYSE:PAH). In addition to Remodulin, the company has 8 products in it's pipeline in various stages of trials. There are very low expectations regarding their future, the stock is trading at a forward P/E of only 13. Yet my analysis indicates, they will be able to grow at least 15-20% in the near future, as was demonstrated in their last quarterly results. The biggest surprise was the growth for drug Tyvaso, which reached sales of 120 million USD (up 36% YoY). High growth/Low P/E stocks are very rare, the markets seem to underestimate this company and it's management. I believe they will continue to grow at this pace in the future, once wall street recognizes that, both it's price and earnings multiples will expand at a rapid pace.

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I am long AMBA, CELG, KORS, ININ, ULTA, UTHR, MMS.

    Tags: AMBA, CELG, KORS, ININ, ULTA, UTHR, MMS
    Nov 11 10:27 AM | Link | Comment!
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  • DCF Valuation For More Than 3000 Stocks $AAPL, $FB, $C http://seekingalpha.com/p/1u6px
    Jul 23, 2014
  • Haier, SJM Holdings, Shanghai-Fudan and Sun Art Retial among the best Hong Kong stocks $FXI
    Nov 8, 2013
  • $CELG and $KORS among the top stocks in $SPX $SPY
    Nov 8, 2013
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