Shabba's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/182333/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175885-consumer-driven-deflation-not-even-close?source=feed#comment-786603 786603
The actions of the federal reserve are to counter balance against this collapse in credit. Credit is basically part of the money supply.

He is right though in saying that increasing/decreasing prices are not inflation/deflation but rather a sign of it. ]]> Wed, 02 Dec 2009 12:23:27 -0500
The actions of the federal reserve are to counter balance against this collapse in credit. Credit is basically part of the money supply.

He is right though in saying that increasing/decreasing prices are not inflation/deflation but rather a sign of it. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173769-christmas-comes-early-key-retailer-cds-equity-relationships?source=feed#comment-764313 764313
It's better to look at the July file:

2008: 27,911 Million
2009: 25,413 Million

That's a drop of about 9%. It may be true that things have stabilized more in Aug-Oct (due to cash for cliunkers??), but it isn't much. The personal income taxes are in free fall, 54,859 in YTD July 08 vs 43,699 down 20%!!.

Also a big chunk of the stabilization in sales taxes is because they have increased the sales tax rate dramatically in CA. I live in the bay area and in most parts it is about 9.5% (it's a combination of state, local and county I believe). I think it is up about 1.5%-2% in the past year or so. It's ridiculous. I don't think the tax/political situation here will change until the state goes bankrupt, it's out of control.]]> Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:39:28 -0500
It's better to look at the July file:

2008: 27,911 Million
2009: 25,413 Million

That's a drop of about 9%. It may be true that things have stabilized more in Aug-Oct (due to cash for cliunkers??), but it isn't much. The personal income taxes are in free fall, 54,859 in YTD July 08 vs 43,699 down 20%!!.

Also a big chunk of the stabilization in sales taxes is because they have increased the sales tax rate dramatically in CA. I live in the bay area and in most parts it is about 9.5% (it's a combination of state, local and county I believe). I think it is up about 1.5%-2% in the past year or so. It's ridiculous. I don't think the tax/political situation here will change until the state goes bankrupt, it's out of control.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173182-amazon-sized-craziness?source=feed#comment-759407 759407
I like the company, it's a great story and they'll do well but the stock is just totally ridiculous. You have to keep things in perspective by remembering that they earned .45 a share last quarter and that was .15 more than the same quarter last year. And on than news the stock has gone up $45.00 a share on the earnings announcement and the ridiculous pump and dump upgrades that followed.]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:36:37 -0500
I like the company, it's a great story and they'll do well but the stock is just totally ridiculous. You have to keep things in perspective by remembering that they earned .45 a share last quarter and that was .15 more than the same quarter last year. And on than news the stock has gone up $45.00 a share on the earnings announcement and the ridiculous pump and dump upgrades that followed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172312-equities-update-stocks-strike-fresh-highs?source=feed#comment-754503 754503
In essence the federal government if forcing you to accept and asset devaluation and artificially low rates on your savings to bail out the idiots who created this mess. Most people would be &#$! furious if they understood this.]]> Tue, 10 Nov 2009 18:45:34 -0500
In essence the federal government if forcing you to accept and asset devaluation and artificially low rates on your savings to bail out the idiots who created this mess. Most people would be &#$! furious if they understood this.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172312-equities-update-stocks-strike-fresh-highs?source=feed#comment-753074 753074
The decrease in the dollar is good for exports from the US, but it is bad for imports to the US (it increases the price). You could also argue that the importers won't be able to raise their price because demand is so weak, and that might be true.

At any rate it is a very bad sign that stock are rising along with a falling dollar. It probably indicates mass buying of equities by foreigners. In other words, Bernanke is effectively selling off the country by keeping rates low.]]> Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:02:12 -0500
The decrease in the dollar is good for exports from the US, but it is bad for imports to the US (it increases the price). You could also argue that the importers won't be able to raise their price because demand is so weak, and that might be true.

At any rate it is a very bad sign that stock are rising along with a falling dollar. It probably indicates mass buying of equities by foreigners. In other words, Bernanke is effectively selling off the country by keeping rates low.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170729-valuing-amazon-like-the-next-wal-mart?source=feed#comment-742617 742617 Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:13:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/170729-valuing-amazon-like-the-next-wal-mart?source=feed#comment-742614 742614
It seems like with long projection models you can argue any valuation though. It seems unlikely that growth rates will be high for economic reasons and the fact that Amazon is mature and so is the internet. But it is possible I guess.

It does seem strange to me that other similar high-tech internet based companies that have similar earnings growth (apple or google for example) aren't valued nearly as richly. I guess everything isn't logical.]]> Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:11:19 -0500
It seems like with long projection models you can argue any valuation though. It seems unlikely that growth rates will be high for economic reasons and the fact that Amazon is mature and so is the internet. But it is possible I guess.

It does seem strange to me that other similar high-tech internet based companies that have similar earnings growth (apple or google for example) aren't valued nearly as richly. I guess everything isn't logical.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170193-stocks-to-watch-as-market-leadership-changes-hands?source=feed#comment-737161 737161 Fri, 30 Oct 2009 12:34:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163213-ten-reasons-for-an-imminent-stock-market-crash?source=feed#comment-700587 700587 A: Highly unlikely, how would this work? Helicopter Benanke cutting rates to 0% only has a direct effect on what banks can borrow. If banks believe they will not get paid back they will not loan out their cheap money. There is no reason to believe they will get paid back because according to just about everyrhing you can measure the average American is swamped in debt and unable to pay his bills. The reason this dynamic is so important is that the economy over the last few years was based on CREDIT, not money. What is going to replace all of that credit?

Focus on earnings, stock are just a reflection of the current value of a business and future earnings potential. Everyone makes things so complicated. And yes, I believe the market is waaaaaaaay overvalued.

The question of whether it will crash is a different story though. Stock will drop once a broad enough group of people figure out that business won't be earning near what they use to. It's as simple as that. When will that happen? Who knows?
]]> Fri, 02 Oct 2009 15:25:58 -0400 A: Highly unlikely, how would this work? Helicopter Benanke cutting rates to 0% only has a direct effect on what banks can borrow. If banks believe they will not get paid back they will not loan out their cheap money. There is no reason to believe they will get paid back because according to just about everyrhing you can measure the average American is swamped in debt and unable to pay his bills. The reason this dynamic is so important is that the economy over the last few years was based on CREDIT, not money. What is going to replace all of that credit?

Focus on earnings, stock are just a reflection of the current value of a business and future earnings potential. Everyone makes things so complicated. And yes, I believe the market is waaaaaaaay overvalued.

The question of whether it will crash is a different story though. Stock will drop once a broad enough group of people figure out that business won't be earning near what they use to. It's as simple as that. When will that happen? Who knows?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163213-ten-reasons-for-an-imminent-stock-market-crash?source=feed#comment-700576 700576 A: Earnings in the last few quarters have been absolutely terrible, along with the rest of the economy.]]> Fri, 02 Oct 2009 15:18:25 -0400 A: Earnings in the last few quarters have been absolutely terrible, along with the rest of the economy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156991-citigroup-looks-overpriced?source=feed#comment-638130 638130
I think the stock drew more fire during the crisis because of all the ridiculous media coverage. People were afraid to go near it. It is still priced like it is completely bankrupt (liquidation value) eventhough the federal gov. has said that will never happen. This stock has nowhere to go but up, even in a horrible economy which I think we'll see over the next couple of years.]]> Thu, 20 Aug 2009 11:42:53 -0400
I think the stock drew more fire during the crisis because of all the ridiculous media coverage. People were afraid to go near it. It is still priced like it is completely bankrupt (liquidation value) eventhough the federal gov. has said that will never happen. This stock has nowhere to go but up, even in a horrible economy which I think we'll see over the next couple of years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150515-wells-fargo-don-t-take-earnings-at-face-value?source=feed#comment-599956 599956 Thu, 23 Jul 2009 16:22:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130111-understanding-triple-leveraged-etfs?source=feed#comment-463207 463207 Tue, 14 Apr 2009 15:33:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130111-understanding-triple-leveraged-etfs?source=feed#comment-462077 462077
For example suppose the underlying basket of stocks increases by 5% that the ETF represents in one day, is there some type of mechanism to ensure the ETF goes up 5% (assuming it isn't one of the levered ETFs)?

It doesn't seem like there is anything to force this, and you can't redeem your shares directly from the ETF for the individual stocks so there isn't an arbitrage opportunity. It seems like ETFs are promoted as representing a basket of stocks when in reality their performance is different because you have essentially created a new security by combining everything and not forcing the ETF to actually represent the underlying stocks. Or am I wrong about this? ]]> Mon, 13 Apr 2009 18:18:41 -0400
For example suppose the underlying basket of stocks increases by 5% that the ETF represents in one day, is there some type of mechanism to ensure the ETF goes up 5% (assuming it isn't one of the levered ETFs)?

It doesn't seem like there is anything to force this, and you can't redeem your shares directly from the ETF for the individual stocks so there isn't an arbitrage opportunity. It seems like ETFs are promoted as representing a basket of stocks when in reality their performance is different because you have essentially created a new security by combining everything and not forcing the ETF to actually represent the underlying stocks. Or am I wrong about this? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124104-nationalization-makes-strange-bedfellows?source=feed#comment-413296 413296
I'm just assuming that nationalization has to do with a company's inability to honor its committments, and the "too big to fail" idea.]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 16:40:10 -0500
I'm just assuming that nationalization has to do with a company's inability to honor its committments, and the "too big to fail" idea.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121694-eight-reasons-bank-of-america-is-going-to-20?source=feed#comment-403033 403033 Wed, 25 Feb 2009 11:10:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119353-dryships-the-time-to-buy-is-now?source=feed#comment-384572 384572 Wed, 11 Feb 2009 16:38:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119353-dryships-the-time-to-buy-is-now?source=feed#comment-384110 384110 Wed, 11 Feb 2009 12:26:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119353-dryships-the-time-to-buy-is-now?source=feed#comment-383007 383007 Tue, 10 Feb 2009 18:14:32 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119353-dryships-the-time-to-buy-is-now?source=feed#comment-382989 382989 Tue, 10 Feb 2009 18:08:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/118410-bofa-s-merrill-purchase-good-for-america-bad-for-them?source=feed#comment-377290 377290
Short sellers are taking advantage of wide spread fear and uncertainty and creating even more problems by crushing stocks. If you're going to write something as damaging about BofA as this at least use some facts about the financial condition of the company.]]> Thu, 05 Feb 2009 14:13:12 -0500
Short sellers are taking advantage of wide spread fear and uncertainty and creating even more problems by crushing stocks. If you're going to write something as damaging about BofA as this at least use some facts about the financial condition of the company.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118163-opportunity-in-medium-term-call-options-for-dryships?source=feed#comment-376189 376189
What is FFA?]]> Wed, 04 Feb 2009 18:25:33 -0500
What is FFA?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116673-dryships-looks-good-even-without-its-dividends?source=feed#comment-369224 369224 Wed, 28 Jan 2009 18:25:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112450-2009-expecting-a-massive-rally?source=feed#comment-341910 341910
It'll be a bad recession, but not a depression and nothing like the 30s. The unemployment rate in the 30s was 20%+, and GDP decrease by double digits. You can rule out that scenario just based on the fact that the FED has bailed everyone out. I think the economy has been good for so long people have lost perspective on what a recession is like. ]]> Tue, 30 Dec 2008 19:06:22 -0500
It'll be a bad recession, but not a depression and nothing like the 30s. The unemployment rate in the 30s was 20%+, and GDP decrease by double digits. You can rule out that scenario just based on the fact that the FED has bailed everyone out. I think the economy has been good for so long people have lost perspective on what a recession is like. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110327-earnings-estimates-collapse-for-goldman-and-morgan?source=feed#comment-326742 326742 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 17:17:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/107592-battling-the-doomsday-machine?source=feed#comment-314066 314066 Mon, 24 Nov 2008 17:51:32 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/104521-digging-into-shipping?source=feed#comment-300298 300298 Fri, 07 Nov 2008 14:21:18 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/104521-digging-into-shipping?source=feed#comment-300177 300177
It's just a big game for the players in the market, let's see how low we can drive shares, cover our shorts, and then hopefully time the bottom correclty. It seems the entire market has completely stopped trading on fundamentals. It's all a mass panic.]]> Fri, 07 Nov 2008 11:37:09 -0500
It's just a big game for the players in the market, let's see how low we can drive shares, cover our shorts, and then hopefully time the bottom correclty. It seems the entire market has completely stopped trading on fundamentals. It's all a mass panic.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85999-the-sec-s-sacred-cow-list-where-are-wamu-and-wachovia?source=feed#comment-211140 211140 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:25:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85083-the-sec-panics?source=feed#comment-206426 206426
I think if you're trading with a mainstream broker you're fine. If not I would just give them a call. I think it's impossible to know where exactly the shares come from.

And selling short has IMMENSE value to it. If you can't sell short, the only position you could take in equities (excluding options, etc. I'm just talking purely equities) is that they will appreciate. Equities are mispriced all the time, and causing people to only be able to make one-sided bets will cause them to be even more mispriced. It would really screw up the pricing and cause even worse bubbles than what we see now. It's naked shorting that is ridiculous and should have been banned a long time ago.]]> Tue, 15 Jul 2008 18:43:09 -0400
I think if you're trading with a mainstream broker you're fine. If not I would just give them a call. I think it's impossible to know where exactly the shares come from.

And selling short has IMMENSE value to it. If you can't sell short, the only position you could take in equities (excluding options, etc. I'm just talking purely equities) is that they will appreciate. Equities are mispriced all the time, and causing people to only be able to make one-sided bets will cause them to be even more mispriced. It would really screw up the pricing and cause even worse bubbles than what we see now. It's naked shorting that is ridiculous and should have been banned a long time ago.]]>