I actually think it is underpriced. I understand the approach, but the stock price you're projecting here is completely a function of what earnings you ASSUME the bank will have. Is it reasonable to assume that Citi will earn that much less than it's peers given that it is doing substantially the same things as the other banks? I don't think so, but it is debatable.
I think the stock drew more fire during the crisis because of all the ridiculous media coverage. People were afraid to go near it. It is still priced like it is completely bankrupt (liquidation value) eventhough the federal gov. has said that will never happen. This stock has nowhere to go but up, even in a horrible economy which I think we'll see over the next couple of years.
The SEC's 'Sacred Cow' List: Where Are WaMu and Wachovia? [View article]
I think your data is wrong. It doesn't make any sense for the finanicals to have a lower short interest than the S&P 500. In fact it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, and I gotta say that your data must be wrong. These stocks have been decimated. I wonder if this includes "naked shorts". How are they measuring this, is it the average short interest at the end of the day, or what? I've seen a lot of these companies exchange 20+% of their total shares in one day. This has to be massive short selling.
Why Wall St. Needed Credit Default Swaps [View article]
WOW, great article. I think this is the best article I have ever read on SA. Maybe one of the best financial articles I have read ever. I'm serious. I have a much better understanding how this situation could spiral out of control. It looks probable that it will, in my opinion.
Citigroup Looks Overpriced [View article]
I think the stock drew more fire during the crisis because of all the ridiculous media coverage. People were afraid to go near it. It is still priced like it is completely bankrupt (liquidation value) eventhough the federal gov. has said that will never happen. This stock has nowhere to go but up, even in a horrible economy which I think we'll see over the next couple of years.
The SEC's 'Sacred Cow' List: Where Are WaMu and Wachovia? [View article]
Why Wall St. Needed Credit Default Swaps [View article]