raising4daughters

Elliot Wave: The Dollar Is Set for a Major Rally

Well said.....consumers trying to fix their balance sheets, but no in-kind measures from DC.


On Nov 08 09:12 AM ZigMeister wrote:

> We are awash in debt but it seems to me that debt (at least private)
> can and is being reduced thru foreclosures, bankruptcies, write-offs,
> etc. Not so easy with all the dollars being printed. Maybe we will
> have short term rallies in the Dollar, but longer term it is going
> down.

Fed's Crisis Policies Will Continue to Backstop Financial Assets

Is any other better purpose for our military?


On Nov 05 05:38 PM ryanclarke wrote:

> The Fed showed their hand yesterday
> ... they have no problem with inflation getting out of hand ... and
> relying on the military to pressure the Saudis, the Russians, and
> the dictator Chavez ... to tow the line and increase production.
> Will they?

SAP AG Beats Consensus in Q3

SAP? who cares

The Recession Is Far from Over

Hey, how did Omarosa work her way from the Apprentice to the White House?


On Sep 22 05:33 PM The Geoffster wrote:

> Jimmy Carter will save us. I'm sorry I meant Barack Obama. Like Mad
> Hedge, I'm showing my age.

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

Nice commentary.

Are we still allowed to say bad things about GE or Immelt? Not sure if that right was recently suspended.


On Aug 29 12:53 PM ArtfulDodger wrote:

> JS and Fellow Investors:
>
> I personally don’t spend five minutes a year trying to figure out
> which way markets are going and don’t really relate to doing it.
> I don’t really care either—for the most part. Crashes such as we
> saw last year are few and far apart; as a rule they simply don’t
> come piling on top of each other.
>
> As I’ve written before on this site, I was once a very foolish boy
> (now I’m a foolish man), and back in the 1980s when the CBOT began
> futures trading on indices, I jumped in thinking I could predict
> the day to day machinations of markets. After only a few days I realized
> my vew was fallacious. I continued to trade for about four years,
> but never again grew the hubris to think I could predict market direction.
>
>
> Therefore, I don’t usually read articles that predict market direction,
> but there are so very many negative articles on this site that I
> decided to read this positive one.
>
> I will say that Mr. Schwarz’s points are valid, especially this one:
> The DOW was around 8400 when Geithner came stumbling out of the blocks
> and Obama was strafing the economy every time he wagged his tongue.
> The DOW dropped 2000 points before Geithner could find his tongue
> and Clinton told Obama to nix the negativity—this was indeed a move
> that had nothing to do with the economy or business. That 2000 point
> move was thus no more a move back to normalcy.
>
> That said, let me also say that at this point the majority of stocks
> I’ve checked out recently do not fit my criteria for buying—but I’m
> a picky, tight son-of-a-batch. So because I can’t find something
> to buy doesn’t mean there’s a crash coming.
>
> I am invested mostly in China and Brazil, with only a few US companies
> in my coop. The problem I see with most businesses in the states
> is too much debt. This came about in my view mainly because of high
> corporate taxes—which
> are not going down.
>
> Some companies are indeed working their debt down. Others, such as
> GE, have added massive amounts of new liability to their books. This
> is why GE’s boss, Jeffrey Immelt, is pushing for a bailout of sorts—urging
> the government to pass the Cap & Trade Bill which will strongly
> benefit GE.
>
> Three of the US companies I own, GD, FWLT, and FLR have stable long-term
> contracts that guarantee them gracious earnings for years out from
> here. Shareholders should be well rewarded, in my view.
>
> The other two, JCOM and GRMN, have pristine balance sheets, keep
> bringing the bacon home to momma year after year, and have products
> and/or services with potential world growth.
>
> I have reasonable profits in all of these, but I’m not selling them,
> shorting them, or putting stops in on them—not matter what anyone
> says, unless there is drastic monetary or fiscal policy change.<br/>
>
> I urge investors (particularly new and young ones) to learn to search
> and find companies of this type, buy them when they’re down (or out
> of favor), and give them a chance to make you some money.
>
> You’ll be much the better off doing this than trying to pick market
> direction.
>
> Thank you for this article, JS, and your work.

Did Bernanke Save the World?

You're right, but there are too many piggies at the public trough in this country that demand increases in spending by their vote, and 535 power-hungry sycophants in Congress are willing to borrow from future generations to pay for benefits of their living constituents.

Ain't gonna happen.


On Aug 24 03:54 PM market mojo wrote:

> All that is needed is a decade+ of restrained spending and/or higher taxes.<br/>
>

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall

For all of you that are CERTAIN and KNOW that a 50% retracement is coming, I wonder if you've shorted SPY.

I get the sense that you're nothing but bizarro-world equivalents of the CNBC cheerleaders. One side is pump, pump, pump while the other is dump, dump, dump.

I lightened the US equity portion of my portfolio this week, but am still 40% US equities. When we go back down to S&P 700-800, I'll sell some treasuries and corporates to buy more US equities.

It's really not that hard.

The New Reality for Higher Education

The problem is that Americans have been placing TOO MUCH value on all degrees. Higher education is in the same boat as real estate....buyers leveraged themselves to hilt to buy the product (home or degree) and then realized they couldn't pay the note.

In 1972, a private school grad could easily get a starting salary equal to all 4 years of tuition, and that starting salary would buy a luxury car.

In 2009, that same grad (if s/he can get a job) will have a salary equal to the cost of a luxury car (say $30-40k), but that only buys 1 year of tuition at the same private school.

The greedy bankers, the ever greedier public sector, and "no price is too high" NPOs in healthcare and education are squeezing every last nickel from Joe Lunchbucket and Sally Bookkeeper, and that's why we're in such a mess. Throw in a couple wasteful wars and the treasure chest in gone, kaput.




On Jul 24 10:31 AM ChickenLips wrote:

> It's unfortunate that America doesn't value a broad based education
> in the arts &amp; sciences any longer.

Four Past Bad Bear Markets: Where Are We Now?

Larry -

In looking at the US and the hollowing out of our manufacturing base and the corruption and greed in Washington, I'm VERY inclined to agree with you.

But, that's now the consensus view, and Jim Rogers always says that it's dangerous to say "it's different this time."

My guess - the last big bear in stocks was 1966-82. My bet is that we won't hit new highs until, at best, 2015-2018. Maybe another leg down to 6500 or even 5000 on the Dow, or maybe just meandering between 7500 and 10000 for another 5-10 years.

Hard to tell, but it's hard to be optimistic, but I can't help but wonder if all the pessimism is THE reason to be optimistic.


On Jul 24 11:28 AM Larry House wrote:

> To answer the question in your title, I think we are in unchartered
> waters that are unlike any previous bear market. I don't think anything
> about the past is predictive of what is to come. I don't know how
> bad it will be; I just think it will be different and unforeseen
> by everyone.

Goldman's Success: Put Down Those Pitchforks

Fifth. The unlawful Federal Reserve is the fourth.


On Jul 19 10:24 AM HERO1957 wrote:

> Goldman Sachs is the fourth branch of government.

20 years of hell for the U.S. economy: Art Laffer thinks we're screwed (video, 6 min.).

Art Laffer is still trying to make himself relevant after Peter Schiff handed him a verbal beatdown last year.

Why Isn't Microsoft's Strategy Working Anymore?

Who's Microsoft?

TIPtoeing Toward Inflation

Inflation can occur even if inflation rises to 25%. Yes, I know there's normally an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation and I know it's dangerous to say "this time it's different." But, with the printing presses running on OT and the fed actually purchasing government debt, our leaders are debasing our currency. For domestic goods, that doesn't mean inflation since suppliers and consumers are affected equally. But.........for those of us that use oil, sneakers, TVs, toys, home electronics, and other imported goods, inflation can and will occur regardless of our domestic unemployment rate.


On Jun 03 09:24 PM Larry House wrote:

> I own a TIPS fund, but I don't see inflation flaring up in a great
> way for another couple of years. It will come, but it will come when
> the economy picks up. It is hard to have much inflation with 500,000
> per month losing jobs. Another possibility is that if the recovery
> is muted, as Bill Gross and others believe, inflation may not be
> a problem for even longer. I know it makes nice headlines to shout
> about inflation, but it is not yet at our door.

Dollar Chart Tells a Much Different Story than Pundits Do

Thanks for the upbeat post. No doubt this country is in great trouble and, perhaps, we're witnessing the downfall of the US.

Our history seems to indicate otherwise. While everyone says "it's different this time", one thing that's not different (I hope) is the great contribution that immigrants make to this country. First it was the western europeans. Heck, we wouldn't have NASA if not for German and Italian immigrants.

In recent decades, this country has been blessed with massive (and under-reported and under-appreciated) contributions from Asia Pacific immigrants as well as those from the Middle East and greater India region. This story continues to be untold by the press.

We've got 535 incompetent boobs in Congress and thousands more in bureaucratic positions that are sucking the lifeblood from productive citizens, but I'm hoping our history and immigrant-friendly policies will overcome the political class.





On May 21 05:17 PM User 353732 wrote:

> You have ably described our continuing descent into a dark canyon.
> I agree that we are not yet at the bottom ,or even close to the bottom,
> of the canyon. However, in my view, it is not a Box Canyon: there
> is a long, slow, way out of the canyon onto the other side.
> We have 6 great national strategic assets that the governing elites
> will not be able to destroy. They are:
> 1. A population of over 300 million people and growing. People are
> an asset(when properly led and motivated). Our national demographic
> profile is greatly superior to Europe, Japan, Russia or China
> 2. Vast arable land(and excellent ,if poorly managed, water resources)
> to feed a world that wants more and better food
> 3. A tremendous endowment of natural resources, esp. energy resources
> ( no nation matches the diversity, quality and sheer quantity of
> America's energy resources.)
> 4. A depth and diversity of technolgical skills unmatched by any
> nation in history and well ahead of our competitors
> 5. A physical infrastructure of communications, logistics, housing
> and basic education that none of our Asian rivals come close to possessing:
> the fact we do not use this infrastructure well is,of course, a liability
> but that is the fault of the governing classes, not a flaw in the
> infrastructure.
> 6. Millions of entrepreneurs and potential entrpreneurs, capable
> of astonishing achievement when allowed to perform
> I suggest that after we very painfully reach bottom, whenever that
> is ,these 6 great national assets under new national, state and local
> leadership will form the basis for not just renewal but true greatness.

GM: Cuts and Outsourcing

I've been buying American brands (mainly Chrysler) for 20 years to help support the local economy and to show support for neighbors employed by GM, Ford, and Chrysler.

If GM begins making cars in China and importing them into the US, doesn't that make Honda's statement that the Ohio-made Accord is more American than many of the domestics?

You'd think with the UAW owning, what, 55% of GM that they'd actually want to make cars here. Even the UAW appears to be selling out.