raising4daughters's Comments

Marc Faber Is Conflicted About the Price of Gold

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 12:51:46 -0500

"This statement doesn't mean that he thinks it will happen, it only means that he thinks it's possible."

C'mon, Marc Faber is a heavy-hitter and doesn't use the phrase "it's possible" willy-nilly. Sure, taken literally, this phrase was used in Wayne's World when Wayne said it's possible that monkeys might fly out of his butt. In the finance world, "it's possible" means the speaker thinks there's some degree of likelihood.

On Nov 13 08:23 AM Botswana wrote:

> It's true that Faber has made two contradictory statements in the
> last days. First, he said that there could be a dollar rally which
> could bring the price of gold down to 800 $. This statement doesn't
> mean that he thinks it will happen, it only means that he thinks
> it's possible.
>
> That's why I was also surprised when he then said that gold couldn't
> go below 1000 $. My only explanation is that in the meantime he has
> heard from reliable sources that central banks are eager to buy gold
> in big quantities and they wouldn't let the price fall below 1000
> $. Maybe he has also realized that the mood among investors has changed.
> Max Keiser said that the hedge funds industry has decided to have
> 20-30 % of their money into commodities in the future.

Despite What You May Have Heard, There's Hiring Going On

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:37:39 -0500

With articles like this, Dr. Bill could work for the Obama administration and tell us all how many jobs he has saved and how many more would've been lost had we not crowned him king last fall. Sheez.

Are Stocks Making a Major Top?

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 22:12:09 -0500

SA trolls never let facts get in the way of their bearish anti-Americanism.

On Nov 13 08:28 AM David Van Knapp wrote:

> I thought technical analysis was supposed to be a way to analyze
> markets unemotionally...to discern what is happening, what is reality...without
> going "on tilt" about it.
>
> Lots of comments on SA during this 8-month rally suggest that lots
> of people are on tilt. There is a cluster of them right here: "The
> result will not be pretty." "Averge Americans have no clue about
> anything." "The notion took hold that you can buy any stock at any
> absurd price." "People are just whistling past the graveyard and
> have no idea as to what's about to hit them." And of course the conspiracy
> theories, the government is lying, CNBC is lying, etc.
>
> The author isn't lying, he has presented facts. He constructed a
> dry, emotionless, technical article, offering decent historical comparisons,
> and he gets ripped for not understanding what's really going on.
> He did make the "mistake" of offering a mild opinion on fundamentals,
> and he got ripped for that. Nobody actually disputed his arguments
> on a technical level; they just ignored them. Too bad, he did a good
> job. Doesn't mean he's right, but he did a good job.

Weekly Recap: Is the U.S. Going Bankrupt?

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 22:05:52 -0500

There were a lot of other red flags during the campaign that BHO doesn't have a clue. He's a thinly-veneered, no talent affirmative-action hire. Hopefully we'll learn from this experiment.

Full disclosure: Not a Beck/Rush follower. W was the worst or 2nd worst president in my lifetime, but BHO appears to be a contender.

On Nov 13 02:42 PM Uffda wrote:

> An economic jobs conference is only a flag that he has no clue what
> to do. Scary.

Marc Faber Is Conflicted About the Price of Gold

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:38:29 -0500

What's the difference between Marc Faber and Greta Van Susteren (FOX Newschannel)?

Greta only talks out of one side of her mouth.

Stocks Soar, Unemployment Rises, Dollar Slumps

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 00:00:06 -0500

Can't you do any better than copy-and-paste the BHO/DNC talking points?

On Nov 09 09:16 AM fjd10595 wrote:

> 1. We grossly overuse health services here- soccer moms running kids
> to the doctor at the first sneeze. I don't remember it that way even
> thirty years ago. No matter, something must be done about it. The
> true answer is 'rationing'- yes the dredded R word that both parties
> say is not in the mix. Great. The American way- give us a fix that
> costs nothing. Better yet- give me more at lower cost. In other words,
> pass the bill to children.
> 2. China won't grow 10% next year- not even close. Do you really
> believe the fake numbers? How do they get there, without Americians
> returning to their foolish ways of buying Chinese junk with abandon.
> I don't think the US consumer has the cash right now, or next year.
>
> 3. You dismiss Global Warming pretty lightly. Do you hand the bills
> for what you use to your kids? That is what we are doing with the
> environment on a massive scale- we are handing a damaged world to
> our children. We are returning to the air in a few hundred years
> all of the carbon that was removed from the air (sequestered in coal
> and oil) over tens of millions of years. When the carbon was in the
> air, the planet was a sauna. Do you understand now? The carbon cycle
> has been disrupted, massively. Read some books on the subject.
Bush
> ignored all of these problems. Is that the Morici way? Cheap gasoline
> that utterly fails to account for health and environmental damage?
> Pass the bill to the next generation? I understand that we have to
> have priorities. Healthcare reform (I say rationing) and climate
> change can't wait. These problems should have been dealt with during
> the 'great expansion'. Of course they were not dealt with since politicans
> only think to the next election cycle. Pushing back against politicians
> are career civil servants, i.e. EPA, FDA, etc, who generally do better,
> until they bow to political pressure. Woe to our children. This will
> go down in the books as "the selfish generation".

Elliot Wave: The Dollar Is Set for a Major Rally

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 10:18:46 -0500

Well said.....consumers trying to fix their balance sheets, but no in-kind measures from DC.

On Nov 08 09:12 AM ZigMeister wrote:

> We are awash in debt but it seems to me that debt (at least private)
> can and is being reduced thru foreclosures, bankruptcies, write-offs,
> etc. Not so easy with all the dollars being printed. Maybe we will
> have short term rallies in the Dollar, but longer term it is going
> down.

Fed's Crisis Policies Will Continue to Backstop Financial Assets

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 22:17:27 -0500

Is any other better purpose for our military?

On Nov 05 05:38 PM ryanclarke wrote:

> The Fed showed their hand yesterday
> ... they have no problem with inflation getting out of hand ... and
> relying on the military to pressure the Saudis, the Russians, and
> the dictator Chavez ... to tow the line and increase production.
> Will they?

SAP AG Beats Consensus in Q3

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:40:36 -0500

SAP? who cares

The Recession Is Far from Over

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 22:57:11 -0400

Hey, how did Omarosa work her way from the Apprentice to the White House?

On Sep 22 05:33 PM The Geoffster wrote:

> Jimmy Carter will save us. I'm sorry I meant Barack Obama. Like Mad
> Hedge, I'm showing my age.

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

Mon, 31 Aug 2009 00:16:50 -0400

Nice commentary.

Are we still allowed to say bad things about GE or Immelt? Not sure if that right was recently suspended.

On Aug 29 12:53 PM ArtfulDodger wrote:

> JS and Fellow Investors:
>
> I personally don’t spend five minutes a year trying to figure out
> which way markets are going and don’t really relate to doing it.
> I don’t really care either—for the most part. Crashes such as we
> saw last year are few and far apart; as a rule they simply don’t
> come piling on top of each other.
>
> As I’ve written before on this site, I was once a very foolish boy
> (now I’m a foolish man), and back in the 1980s when the CBOT began
> futures trading on indices, I jumped in thinking I could predict
> the day to day machinations of markets. After only a few days I realized
> my vew was fallacious. I continued to trade for about four years,
> but never again grew the hubris to think I could predict market direction.
>
>
> Therefore, I don’t usually read articles that predict market direction,
> but there are so very many negative articles on this site that I
> decided to read this positive one.
>
> I will say that Mr. Schwarz’s points are valid, especially this one:
> The DOW was around 8400 when Geithner came stumbling out of the blocks
> and Obama was strafing the economy every time he wagged his tongue.
> The DOW dropped 2000 points before Geithner could find his tongue
> and Clinton told Obama to nix the negativity—this was indeed a move
> that had nothing to do with the economy or business. That 2000 point
> move was thus no more a move back to normalcy.
>
> That said, let me also say that at this point the majority of stocks
> I’ve checked out recently do not fit my criteria for buying—but I’m
> a picky, tight son-of-a-batch. So because I can’t find something
> to buy doesn’t mean there’s a crash coming.
>
> I am invested mostly in China and Brazil, with only a few US companies
> in my coop. The problem I see with most businesses in the states
> is too much debt. This came about in my view mainly because of high
> corporate taxes—which
> are not going down.
>
> Some companies are indeed working their debt down. Others, such as
> GE, have added massive amounts of new liability to their books. This
> is why GE’s boss, Jeffrey Immelt, is pushing for a bailout of sorts—urging
> the government to pass the Cap & Trade Bill which will strongly
> benefit GE.
>
> Three of the US companies I own, GD, FWLT, and FLR have stable long-term
> contracts that guarantee them gracious earnings for years out from
> here. Shareholders should be well rewarded, in my view.
>
> The other two, JCOM and GRMN, have pristine balance sheets, keep
> bringing the bacon home to momma year after year, and have products
> and/or services with potential world growth.
>
> I have reasonable profits in all of these, but I’m not selling them,
> shorting them, or putting stops in on them—not matter what anyone
> says, unless there is drastic monetary or fiscal policy change.

>
> I urge investors (particularly new and young ones) to learn to search
> and find companies of this type, buy them when they’re down (or out
> of favor), and give them a chance to make you some money.
>
> You’ll be much the better off doing this than trying to pick market
> direction.
>
> Thank you for this article, JS, and your work.

Did Bernanke Save the World?

Mon, 24 Aug 2009 21:59:15 -0400

You're right, but there are too many piggies at the public trough in this country that demand increases in spending by their vote, and 535 power-hungry sycophants in Congress are willing to borrow from future generations to pay for benefits of their living constituents.

Ain't gonna happen.

On Aug 24 03:54 PM market mojo wrote:

> All that is needed is a decade+ of restrained spending and/or higher taxes.

>

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall

Tue, 04 Aug 2009 17:40:24 -0400

For all of you that are CERTAIN and KNOW that a 50% retracement is coming, I wonder if you've shorted SPY.

I get the sense that you're nothing but bizarro-world equivalents of the CNBC cheerleaders. One side is pump, pump, pump while the other is dump, dump, dump.

I lightened the US equity portion of my portfolio this week, but am still 40% US equities. When we go back down to S&P 700-800, I'll sell some treasuries and corporates to buy more US equities.

It's really not that hard.

The New Reality for Higher Education

Fri, 24 Jul 2009 13:35:45 -0400

The problem is that Americans have been placing TOO MUCH value on all degrees. Higher education is in the same boat as real estate....buyers leveraged themselves to hilt to buy the product (home or degree) and then realized they couldn't pay the note.

In 1972, a private school grad could easily get a starting salary equal to all 4 years of tuition, and that starting salary would buy a luxury car.

In 2009, that same grad (if s/he can get a job) will have a salary equal to the cost of a luxury car (say $30-40k), but that only buys 1 year of tuition at the same private school.

The greedy bankers, the ever greedier public sector, and "no price is too high" NPOs in healthcare and education are squeezing every last nickel from Joe Lunchbucket and Sally Bookkeeper, and that's why we're in such a mess. Throw in a couple wasteful wars and the treasure chest in gone, kaput.

On Jul 24 10:31 AM ChickenLips wrote:

> It's unfortunate that America doesn't value a broad based education
> in the arts & sciences any longer.

Four Past Bad Bear Markets: Where Are We Now?

Fri, 24 Jul 2009 12:31:12 -0400

Larry -

In looking at the US and the hollowing out of our manufacturing base and the corruption and greed in Washington, I'm VERY inclined to agree with you.

But, that's now the consensus view, and Jim Rogers always says that it's dangerous to say "it's different this time."

My guess - the last big bear in stocks was 1966-82. My bet is that we won't hit new highs until, at best, 2015-2018. Maybe another leg down to 6500 or even 5000 on the Dow, or maybe just meandering between 7500 and 10000 for another 5-10 years.

Hard to tell, but it's hard to be optimistic, but I can't help but wonder if all the pessimism is THE reason to be optimistic.

On Jul 24 11:28 AM Larry House wrote:

> To answer the question in your title, I think we are in unchartered
> waters that are unlike any previous bear market. I don't think anything
> about the past is predictive of what is to come. I don't know how
> bad it will be; I just think it will be different and unforeseen
> by everyone.

Goldman's Success: Put Down Those Pitchforks

Sun, 19 Jul 2009 22:43:24 -0400

Fifth. The unlawful Federal Reserve is the fourth.

On Jul 19 10:24 AM HERO1957 wrote:

> Goldman Sachs is the fourth branch of government.

20 years of hell for the U.S. economy: Art Laffer thinks we're screwed (video, 6 min.).

Thu, 25 Jun 2009 22:04:32 -0400

Art Laffer is still trying to make himself relevant after Peter Schiff handed him a verbal beatdown last year.

Why Isn't Microsoft's Strategy Working Anymore?

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 16:50:24 -0400

Who's Microsoft?

TIPtoeing Toward Inflation

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 23:29:29 -0400

Inflation can occur even if inflation rises to 25%. Yes, I know there's normally an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation and I know it's dangerous to say "this time it's different." But, with the printing presses running on OT and the fed actually purchasing government debt, our leaders are debasing our currency. For domestic goods, that doesn't mean inflation since suppliers and consumers are affected equally. But.........for those of us that use oil, sneakers, TVs, toys, home electronics, and other imported goods, inflation can and will occur regardless of our domestic unemployment rate.

On Jun 03 09:24 PM Larry House wrote:

> I own a TIPS fund, but I don't see inflation flaring up in a great
> way for another couple of years. It will come, but it will come when
> the economy picks up. It is hard to have much inflation with 500,000
> per month losing jobs. Another possibility is that if the recovery
> is muted, as Bill Gross and others believe, inflation may not be
> a problem for even longer. I know it makes nice headlines to shout
> about inflation, but it is not yet at our door.

Dollar Chart Tells a Much Different Story than Pundits Do

Sat, 23 May 2009 11:26:21 -0400

Thanks for the upbeat post. No doubt this country is in great trouble and, perhaps, we're witnessing the downfall of the US.

Our history seems to indicate otherwise. While everyone says "it's different this time", one thing that's not different (I hope) is the great contribution that immigrants make to this country. First it was the western europeans. Heck, we wouldn't have NASA if not for German and Italian immigrants.

In recent decades, this country has been blessed with massive (and under-reported and under-appreciated) contributions from Asia Pacific immigrants as well as those from the Middle East and greater India region. This story continues to be untold by the press.

We've got 535 incompetent boobs in Congress and thousands more in bureaucratic positions that are sucking the lifeblood from productive citizens, but I'm hoping our history and immigrant-friendly policies will overcome the political class.

On May 21 05:17 PM User 353732 wrote:

> You have ably described our continuing descent into a dark canyon.
> I agree that we are not yet at the bottom ,or even close to the bottom,
> of the canyon. However, in my view, it is not a Box Canyon: there
> is a long, slow, way out of the canyon onto the other side.
> We have 6 great national strategic assets that the governing elites
> will not be able to destroy. They are:
> 1. A population of over 300 million people and growing. People are
> an asset(when properly led and motivated). Our national demographic
> profile is greatly superior to Europe, Japan, Russia or China
> 2. Vast arable land(and excellent ,if poorly managed, water resources)
> to feed a world that wants more and better food
> 3. A tremendous endowment of natural resources, esp. energy resources
> ( no nation matches the diversity, quality and sheer quantity of
> America's energy resources.)
> 4. A depth and diversity of technolgical skills unmatched by any
> nation in history and well ahead of our competitors
> 5. A physical infrastructure of communications, logistics, housing
> and basic education that none of our Asian rivals come close to possessing:
> the fact we do not use this infrastructure well is,of course, a liability
> but that is the fault of the governing classes, not a flaw in the
> infrastructure.
> 6. Millions of entrepreneurs and potential entrpreneurs, capable
> of astonishing achievement when allowed to perform
> I suggest that after we very painfully reach bottom, whenever that
> is ,these 6 great national assets under new national, state and local
> leadership will form the basis for not just renewal but true greatness.

GM: Cuts and Outsourcing

Sat, 16 May 2009 18:10:50 -0400

I've been buying American brands (mainly Chrysler) for 20 years to help support the local economy and to show support for neighbors employed by GM, Ford, and Chrysler.

If GM begins making cars in China and importing them into the US, doesn't that make Honda's statement that the Ohio-made Accord is more American than many of the domestics?

You'd think with the UAW owning, what, 55% of GM that they'd actually want to make cars here. Even the UAW appears to be selling out.

Why QAD Is Mispriced

Fri, 15 May 2009 19:21:22 -0400

Pump and dump.

QAD is a big supplier of software to automotive and automotive parts suppliers. Not going to be much in new account growth, and a lot of their customers could be going out of business.

The Most Significant Green Shoot Starts to Wilt

Thu, 14 May 2009 22:51:51 -0400

The new GM won't need any dealers. We proles will have turn in our existing vehicle for a Gub'mint Motors car at the BMV. The elites will be able to get a Gub'mint Motors Volga while the rest of us will get a Zaporozhet.

Don't Be Fooled, We've Been Here Before

Wed, 06 May 2009 00:16:42 -0400

Great article, especially if you've never read a history book. I suppose Joe "When the stock market crashed, FDR got on TV" Biden co-authored this thing. Hoover was President, there was no TV, and Biden is a fool.

Author's opinion? Maybe right, maybe wrong. Who knows?

But, a re-write of history was used to support the author's claims. I hope most reader's realize that FDR didn't take office until early 1933, a period off the author's chart ends.

The article would've been more interesting if the chart used 1933 as the first period in the chart.

Acting CFO of Freddie Mac (FRE) David Kellerman was found dead at his home this morning in what appears to be a suicide.

Wed, 22 Apr 2009 11:21:39 -0400

Of course, many are expressing the obvious, the need for sympathy for this man's family.

However, let us not use his suicide as a reason to forgive the unscrupulous behavior of Wall Street, K Street, and Congress.

From the looks of this man's plush estate, I don't think his checks were bouncing. Many Americans are suffering due to the greed in NYC and DC, but these are "the forgotten men" in Depression-Era terms.

Let's face it, while this man's family and CNBC will miss him terribly, 299.9 million Americans aren't going to miss a banker.

Investment Outlook: Lessons from Jim Abbott and the Wall of Worry

Sat, 18 Apr 2009 21:37:56 -0400

Not to disagree with everything you've said, but haven't we already had a lost decade. The S&P 500 was at 1300-1400 10 years ago.

On Apr 17 03:08 AM Fighting Yoda wrote:

> The whole system is rigged, with FASB 157 rigging was made official.
> Phony stress tests, Helicopter Ben knows no limits to printing money.
>
>
> The Govt. is desperately trying to prop up a failed system, it is
> not going to work.
>
> The rally has outlived itself, the most bullish are surprised by
> the rally. Thin volumes, no new money coming in - are signs of poor
> quality rally.
> It is going to end very badly - likely to have a lost decade - deflationary
> recession.

Buy and Hold is Dead

Sat, 04 Apr 2009 16:54:50 -0400

Thanks for another statement on the death of buy-and-hold investing. Were you around to write the "Death of Stock" headline for Business Week in 1982 as well?

Market timing (in any market, not just stocks) is the fool's game.

I'll stick with my 45% US equities, 15% foreign equities, 15% US bonds, 5% foreign bonds, 10% commodities and real estate, and 10% cash portfolio for long-term money. It's been rough since early 2007, but I've been buying a lot of bargains since then.

Twenty years from now, I expect to be able to retire with a big pile, even without SSI.

Has the Market Actually Bottomed?

Sat, 04 Apr 2009 16:46:04 -0400

"If it can successfully make it through the thick red line, we may be looking at a sustained uptrend!"

Gutsy call. I agree that if we make it through the thick red line, we MAY be looking at a sustained uptrend. Then again, if we make it through the thick red line, we may not.

Added Debt Won't Rescue the Great American Ponzi Scheme

Mon, 23 Mar 2009 12:47:44 -0400

Eventually? If the gub'mint ran a $100B surplus every year (over and above interest payments) for 100 years, it could pay down a national debt of $10T. Surplus of $100B? Not likely any time soon. 100 years? Our unborn great-grandchildren will still be paying.

On Mar 23 06:47 AM etbob wrote:

> The economy will eventually recover. Growth will be slower than in
> the past, as debt needs to be paid down, by both gov't and individuals.
> This should lead to a sustained, gradual, recovery.

2009 Depression Will Be Nothing Like 1929

Fri, 06 Mar 2009 22:52:01 -0500

Won't the joke be on the Japanese and Chinese that hold trillions of our debt? We can pay off the bonds and they can buy a 12-pack with the principal.

On Mar 06 10:37 PM The Geoffster wrote:

> "Let's call a spade a spade?" Hmm, Let's just call it a frigging
> shovel. We're all going to need one to load up the wheel barrow with
> cash to buy a bag of groceries. The jokes on all the Obama supporters
> who thought they were safe because they'd never make more that $250,000.
> Withe the coming hyperinflation, that will be minimum wage in no
> time.