raising4daughters

Are Stocks Making a Major Top?

SA trolls never let facts get in the way of their bearish anti-Americanism.


On Nov 13 08:28 AM David Van Knapp wrote:

> I thought technical analysis was supposed to be a way to analyze
> markets unemotionally...to discern what is happening, what is reality...without
> going "on tilt" about it.
>
> Lots of comments on SA during this 8-month rally suggest that lots
> of people are on tilt. There is a cluster of them right here: "The
> result will not be pretty." "Averge Americans have no clue about
> anything." "The notion took hold that you can buy any stock at any
> absurd price." "People are just whistling past the graveyard and
> have no idea as to what's about to hit them." And of course the conspiracy
> theories, the government is lying, CNBC is lying, etc.
>
> The author isn't lying, he has presented facts. He constructed a
> dry, emotionless, technical article, offering decent historical comparisons,
> and he gets ripped for not understanding what's really going on.
> He did make the "mistake" of offering a mild opinion on fundamentals,
> and he got ripped for that. Nobody actually disputed his arguments
> on a technical level; they just ignored them. Too bad, he did a good
> job. Doesn't mean he's right, but he did a good job.

Weekly Recap: Is the U.S. Going Bankrupt?

There were a lot of other red flags during the campaign that BHO doesn't have a clue. He's a thinly-veneered, no talent affirmative-action hire. Hopefully we'll learn from this experiment.

Full disclosure: Not a Beck/Rush follower. W was the worst or 2nd worst president in my lifetime, but BHO appears to be a contender.


On Nov 13 02:42 PM Uffda wrote:


> An economic jobs conference is only a flag that he has no clue what
> to do. Scary.

Stocks Soar, Unemployment Rises, Dollar Slumps

Can't you do any better than copy-and-paste the BHO/DNC talking points?


On Nov 09 09:16 AM fjd10595 wrote:

> 1. We grossly overuse health services here- soccer moms running kids
> to the doctor at the first sneeze. I don't remember it that way even
> thirty years ago. No matter, something must be done about it. The
> true answer is 'rationing'- yes the dredded R word that both parties
> say is not in the mix. Great. The American way- give us a fix that
> costs nothing. Better yet- give me more at lower cost. In other words,
> pass the bill to children.
> 2. China won't grow 10% next year- not even close. Do you really
> believe the fake numbers? How do they get there, without Americians
> returning to their foolish ways of buying Chinese junk with abandon.
> I don't think the US consumer has the cash right now, or next year.
>
> 3. You dismiss Global Warming pretty lightly. Do you hand the bills
> for what you use to your kids? That is what we are doing with the
> environment on a massive scale- we are handing a damaged world to
> our children. We are returning to the air in a few hundred years
> all of the carbon that was removed from the air (sequestered in coal
> and oil) over tens of millions of years. When the carbon was in the
> air, the planet was a sauna. Do you understand now? The carbon cycle
> has been disrupted, massively. Read some books on the subject. <br/>Bush
> ignored all of these problems. Is that the Morici way? Cheap gasoline
> that utterly fails to account for health and environmental damage?
> Pass the bill to the next generation? I understand that we have to
> have priorities. Healthcare reform (I say rationing) and climate
> change can't wait. These problems should have been dealt with during
> the 'great expansion'. Of course they were not dealt with since politicans
> only think to the next election cycle. Pushing back against politicians
> are career civil servants, i.e. EPA, FDA, etc, who generally do better,
> until they bow to political pressure. Woe to our children. This will
> go down in the books as "the selfish generation".

Fed's Crisis Policies Will Continue to Backstop Financial Assets

Is any other better purpose for our military?


On Nov 05 05:38 PM ryanclarke wrote:

> The Fed showed their hand yesterday
> ... they have no problem with inflation getting out of hand ... and
> relying on the military to pressure the Saudis, the Russians, and
> the dictator Chavez ... to tow the line and increase production.
> Will they?

The Recession Is Far from Over

Hey, how did Omarosa work her way from the Apprentice to the White House?


On Sep 22 05:33 PM The Geoffster wrote:

> Jimmy Carter will save us. I'm sorry I meant Barack Obama. Like Mad
> Hedge, I'm showing my age.

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

Nice commentary.

Are we still allowed to say bad things about GE or Immelt? Not sure if that right was recently suspended.


On Aug 29 12:53 PM ArtfulDodger wrote:

> JS and Fellow Investors:
>
> I personally don’t spend five minutes a year trying to figure out
> which way markets are going and don’t really relate to doing it.
> I don’t really care either—for the most part. Crashes such as we
> saw last year are few and far apart; as a rule they simply don’t
> come piling on top of each other.
>
> As I’ve written before on this site, I was once a very foolish boy
> (now I’m a foolish man), and back in the 1980s when the CBOT began
> futures trading on indices, I jumped in thinking I could predict
> the day to day machinations of markets. After only a few days I realized
> my vew was fallacious. I continued to trade for about four years,
> but never again grew the hubris to think I could predict market direction.
>
>
> Therefore, I don’t usually read articles that predict market direction,
> but there are so very many negative articles on this site that I
> decided to read this positive one.
>
> I will say that Mr. Schwarz’s points are valid, especially this one:
> The DOW was around 8400 when Geithner came stumbling out of the blocks
> and Obama was strafing the economy every time he wagged his tongue.
> The DOW dropped 2000 points before Geithner could find his tongue
> and Clinton told Obama to nix the negativity—this was indeed a move
> that had nothing to do with the economy or business. That 2000 point
> move was thus no more a move back to normalcy.
>
> That said, let me also say that at this point the majority of stocks
> I’ve checked out recently do not fit my criteria for buying—but I’m
> a picky, tight son-of-a-batch. So because I can’t find something
> to buy doesn’t mean there’s a crash coming.
>
> I am invested mostly in China and Brazil, with only a few US companies
> in my coop. The problem I see with most businesses in the states
> is too much debt. This came about in my view mainly because of high
> corporate taxes—which
> are not going down.
>
> Some companies are indeed working their debt down. Others, such as
> GE, have added massive amounts of new liability to their books. This
> is why GE’s boss, Jeffrey Immelt, is pushing for a bailout of sorts—urging
> the government to pass the Cap &amp; Trade Bill which will strongly
> benefit GE.
>
> Three of the US companies I own, GD, FWLT, and FLR have stable long-term
> contracts that guarantee them gracious earnings for years out from
> here. Shareholders should be well rewarded, in my view.
>
> The other two, JCOM and GRMN, have pristine balance sheets, keep
> bringing the bacon home to momma year after year, and have products
> and/or services with potential world growth.
>
> I have reasonable profits in all of these, but I’m not selling them,
> shorting them, or putting stops in on them—not matter what anyone
> says, unless there is drastic monetary or fiscal policy change.<br/>
>
> I urge investors (particularly new and young ones) to learn to search
> and find companies of this type, buy them when they’re down (or out
> of favor), and give them a chance to make you some money.
>
> You’ll be much the better off doing this than trying to pick market
> direction.
>
> Thank you for this article, JS, and your work.

Four Past Bad Bear Markets: Where Are We Now?

Larry -

In looking at the US and the hollowing out of our manufacturing base and the corruption and greed in Washington, I'm VERY inclined to agree with you.

But, that's now the consensus view, and Jim Rogers always says that it's dangerous to say "it's different this time."

My guess - the last big bear in stocks was 1966-82. My bet is that we won't hit new highs until, at best, 2015-2018. Maybe another leg down to 6500 or even 5000 on the Dow, or maybe just meandering between 7500 and 10000 for another 5-10 years.

Hard to tell, but it's hard to be optimistic, but I can't help but wonder if all the pessimism is THE reason to be optimistic.


On Jul 24 11:28 AM Larry House wrote:

> To answer the question in your title, I think we are in unchartered
> waters that are unlike any previous bear market. I don't think anything
> about the past is predictive of what is to come. I don't know how
> bad it will be; I just think it will be different and unforeseen
> by everyone.

The Most Significant Green Shoot Starts to Wilt

The new GM won't need any dealers. We proles will have turn in our existing vehicle for a Gub'mint Motors car at the BMV. The elites will be able to get a Gub'mint Motors Volga while the rest of us will get a Zaporozhet.

The Rally, When It Comes, Will Be a Doozy

After the last 12 years, it's not accurate or fair to say equities have performed well the past 26 years. That statement was accurate about 18 months ago, but we reverted to the mean and then some.


On Mar 06 04:19 PM Gross Profits wrote:

> Or all that money could flow into gold and commodities. A little
> may flow into stocks raising them 20-30%. But if we have hyperinflation
> what good is that?
> Equities performed very well for 26 years. I doubt that for the next
> 5-10 years this will also be the case.

Sorry Geithner, The Market Is Not That into You

Well said. I had high hopes for Obama's team of rivals, but his administration is starting to look more like Carter's than Lincoln's....a combination of junior-level hacks with a sprinkling of no-accomplishment, gray-haired bureaucrats.

Paulsen is actually starting to look good, and Newt looks a whole lot better than San Fran Nan who thinks saving a chipmunk is stimulus.

Out of the frying pan and into the fire.

A Look at 10-Year Market Returns

Let me see if I have this right? If the Dow goes up, investors will make more money than if the Dow goes down. Remarkable.

U.S. Real GDP Regression Analysis

Try looking at the dotted line that appears to be a best-fit regression line to the real GDP data points over time. It's a flat line. Where did YOU take stats? Harvard?


On Jan 23 10:07 AM WACG wrote:

> I did not see any "Regression Analysis" in your blog. WHAT regression
> analysis? Perhaps you do not know what regression analysis is.

Why Long Term Investors Should Consider Buying

It's different this time; it's different this time; it's different this time!

Hehehehehe

Why Paulson and Bernanke's Plans Don't Work

Obama's plan will be more debt through increased investment, er government spending. He's been talking about rebuilding roads, bridges, infrastructure and investment in green technologies for 2 years. More borrowing from future generations to fund today's greed.

Paul Krugman + Al Gore = The Way Forward

I'm not sure how cheap money and easy credit is going to solve the problem created by cheap money, easy credit, trade deficits, and fiscal deficits.