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Nouriel Roubini worries the sudden liquidity-driven rise in commodity prices will turn this emerging V-shaped recovery into a W.

Wall street may look like a W.

Main street will look like a continued cliff diver.

The only real decoupling is Wall street and Main street.

Unemployment Data: Are We Really Seeing an Improvement?

Independent contractors (hair stylist, programers on contract) for example), temp workers, out of business - business owners and some part time workers do not qualify for benifits at all. They are never counted.

Cryptogon.com does an amazing job of connecting this week's bond fraud (I, II) to previous debacles. Believe it or not, $134B isn't even close to being the biggest such forgery; in 2005 a similar scam produced $3T in fake bank notes.

HH, I agree.

As to the stolen, forged, whatever bonds: if they were forged why were the men smuggling them not arrested? That is a crime and the Italian cops let them go.

The failed promise of innovation: There's growing evidence that an innovation shortfall may have contributed to today's financial crisis.

The banks and insurance co were plenty "innovative", thank you very much.

Economic Ramifications of Skyrocketing Long-Term Unemployment

It is what it is. It will be what it will be.

No amount of looking, studing, wishing, manipulating will make things as they are not.

None of us are in a position to fix, help or hurt at this point. I recommend we each follow a path in our own best interest from our current individual situations. We can watch the show, but we aren't on the stage.

10 Reasons to Buy Wal-Mart

The new normal: Walmart is upscale shopping.

Nice for Wall Street, not so good for main street.

Stabilization in the foreclosure market? Not in California.

Not in Arizona either.

Big banks are placing an increasing number of trades internally, using so-called "dark pools," luring the most active traders away from traditional exchanges. The trend will likely continue, absent any new legislation, a blow to price transparency and exchange profit margins.

"off the books" "toxic assets" "dark pools"

And they wonder why no one trusts the banks.

If I did that with my business, I would be in jail.

Whitney Tilson's Updated Housing Analysis

I know several people with "interest only" type loans. They are all underwater as well. No they will not keep the homes.

As an aside. Went to Ulta, shelves are 1/4 empty. Stock is spread out thinly. 3 customers in the entire place.

Went to Sears, at the mall, we were the only 2 customers in the place. We looked at dishwashier (ours died), bought one from a small independent for much less.

Went to Home Depot. Employees asked me if I needed help. Someone was waiting at the registar and I checked out with no line.

Went to the casino. The place was really empty.

No jobs, no spending. No spending, no jobs. The downward cycle is in full swing.

Phil Davis on this morning's personal spending figure: "It’s a seriously flawed metric when you can jam up the cost of necessities that people have to buy and then point to the increased spending on necessities as signs of a recovery."

Gas UP
Food UP
Pet food UP INSANLY
Electirc bill UP 15%


Yep we are spending more. All my credit cards are at 0. Now I can save?

Is There Any Limit to Bank Arrogance?

When the MSM says "recovery" they mean the banks. When peoplel talk about "less bad" they mean the banks. They forget to mention that it is the tax payers trillions of dollars insuring the banks live to see another day.

However, main street is not recovering. Main street is getting worse. Main street will be living in the street if that is what it takes to keep the bankers afloat.

Is Program Trading - Especially SLP - Affecting Trade in the Stock Market?

it is really simple. GS is backed by gov money. The gov wants people to think things are better, your 401K is better now. Gov tells GS to buy and prop up the market.
Gov tells GS to sell when they want us to think the market disagrees with a policy statement that the gov dislikes, or to keep us to afraid to stop the gov from continuing with a progarm that only benifits the bankers.

Mind Games, just mind games. And it is working. Until too many people see that it is a game.

The market isn't setting value. The gov is setting up the market though GS.

Get used to sub-2% GDP growth, Pimco's El-Erian says. "We are transitioning to what we call at Pimco a new normal." Outspoken analyst David Rosenberg agrees: "This is going to be a new era of frugality. This isn't some flashy two- or three-quarter deal. This is a secular change in household attitudes."

Sure the confidence numbers are up. People feel better after they pay down the credit card, start to save and cut spending on things they don't need.

It also means that spending is down, that more layoffs are on the way, more retail / office space is vacant, more loans go bad, more stocks are worth less. When the layoffs start hitting these people the numbers will go down again.

California doesn't need to go bankrupt - it just needs a break up, into four individual states. BreakingViews makes the case for splitting California into pieces. (previously I, II)

Too big to fail.

the American Motto of 2009.

They could draw and quarter Arnold?????

The government "is now the sole reliable and sufficient source of federal student-loan capital," Obama tells lawmakers, and private lenders should be curtailed in the federal student-loan program.

Fed = Lender of Last Resort = for all debt.

Next will be auto loans, as soon as the gov owns GM.
Then will come home loans, only FHA will lend to buyers.

The world is changing.