chartguy's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/182524/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/108271-as-bank-industry-analysts-lose-jobs-serious-blogs-take-the-forefront?source=feed#comment-316319 316319 Thu, 27 Nov 2008 13:01:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82891-intel-s-atom-chip-to-power-future-iphone?source=feed#comment-194292 194292 Fri, 27 Jun 2008 12:31:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82334-best-of-breed-business-model-a-chink-in-apples-armor?source=feed#comment-191018 191018
I am forced to run Windows to access my business. Once I realized how easy it is to run OSX and Windows - simultaneously - it was easy to replace my old laptop with a MacBookPro. It's a little odd at first seeing Mac and Windows icons coexisting on the same desktop, but the operation is seamless. Once your brain gets used to the new layout and functionality it is hard not to increase your productivity.

Am I insane? Perhaps. But it gets better. When I decided to upgrade from Tiger to Leopard - different versions of OSX like going from XP to Vista for Windows people - I didn't have to buy a new computer. I just installed the software. I didn't have to hunt down drivers for my peripherals, either. Everything worked.

The Macs might have been more expensive at the outset if I only purchased on specs. But I would have missed the increased productivity and loss of frustration over constant error messages. More importantly, I likely would have been buying new computers if I decided to go with Vista. Instead, I know that my computers won't be obsolete in 2 years. That's something that I appreciate at home and for my business.

To wrap it up, I have to agree with Roger. Encourage your competitors to use Windows. If they see you with a Mac just say it was a gift or something and that you really only run Windows on it. ]]> Mon, 23 Jun 2008 12:51:31 -0400
I am forced to run Windows to access my business. Once I realized how easy it is to run OSX and Windows - simultaneously - it was easy to replace my old laptop with a MacBookPro. It's a little odd at first seeing Mac and Windows icons coexisting on the same desktop, but the operation is seamless. Once your brain gets used to the new layout and functionality it is hard not to increase your productivity.

Am I insane? Perhaps. But it gets better. When I decided to upgrade from Tiger to Leopard - different versions of OSX like going from XP to Vista for Windows people - I didn't have to buy a new computer. I just installed the software. I didn't have to hunt down drivers for my peripherals, either. Everything worked.

The Macs might have been more expensive at the outset if I only purchased on specs. But I would have missed the increased productivity and loss of frustration over constant error messages. More importantly, I likely would have been buying new computers if I decided to go with Vista. Instead, I know that my computers won't be obsolete in 2 years. That's something that I appreciate at home and for my business.

To wrap it up, I have to agree with Roger. Encourage your competitors to use Windows. If they see you with a Mac just say it was a gift or something and that you really only run Windows on it. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82183-the-hidden-financial-impact-of-apple-s-iphone?source=feed#comment-190268 190268
As an aside, I hope you are right about the $400 ASP. I know you and Bullish Cross have historically been pretty accurate in modeling AAPLs revenue, however it appears that the company is focused very intently on gaining market share. AAPL can not yet predict the impact of Android, so seeding the market with as many iPhones as quickly as possible makes sense. To accomplish this goal, AAPL first adjusted the price of the original iPhone last fall and has now announced a significant reduction for iPhone 2.0 -- although carrier fees will largely offset the total cost of ownership.

Lastly, you have rightly ignored Apple TV. Although this product has the potential for massive market acceptance, I don't think that will happen with the current hardware configuration. My ideal product would add cable box functionality, digital recording, and 1080i support.

To wrap it up, I've changed my visual model of AAPLs business. Where I thought there was a 3-legged stool comprised of Macs, iPods and iPhones I now see something that consists of (i) traditional computers including Macs and a future tablet; (ii) handheld devices such as iPod/iPhone; (iii) home services such as Apple TV; (iv) enterprise products including servers; and (v) retail and support services including iTunes, the App Store, mobile.me and AppleCare with cloud computing at some point in the future. I don't know if this is a chair, a garden or what... but I'm reasonably confident it will generate a much higher EPS that the current product mix.]]> Sun, 22 Jun 2008 13:16:35 -0400
As an aside, I hope you are right about the $400 ASP. I know you and Bullish Cross have historically been pretty accurate in modeling AAPLs revenue, however it appears that the company is focused very intently on gaining market share. AAPL can not yet predict the impact of Android, so seeding the market with as many iPhones as quickly as possible makes sense. To accomplish this goal, AAPL first adjusted the price of the original iPhone last fall and has now announced a significant reduction for iPhone 2.0 -- although carrier fees will largely offset the total cost of ownership.

Lastly, you have rightly ignored Apple TV. Although this product has the potential for massive market acceptance, I don't think that will happen with the current hardware configuration. My ideal product would add cable box functionality, digital recording, and 1080i support.

To wrap it up, I've changed my visual model of AAPLs business. Where I thought there was a 3-legged stool comprised of Macs, iPods and iPhones I now see something that consists of (i) traditional computers including Macs and a future tablet; (ii) handheld devices such as iPod/iPhone; (iii) home services such as Apple TV; (iv) enterprise products including servers; and (v) retail and support services including iTunes, the App Store, mobile.me and AppleCare with cloud computing at some point in the future. I don't know if this is a chair, a garden or what... but I'm reasonably confident it will generate a much higher EPS that the current product mix.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82097-not-buying-it-sanford-analyst-toni-sacconaghi-s-iphone-hit-job?source=feed#comment-189479 189479
When people become aware of all the iPhone can do it seems reasonable that the "survey" results will be different. Just wait until the CEO of one company starts talking with the CEO of another company about the custom apps they are running to increase sales yield, increase inventory turns or track employee productivity in the field via GPS.

A closed mind is a dangerous thing...]]> Fri, 20 Jun 2008 18:24:09 -0400
When people become aware of all the iPhone can do it seems reasonable that the "survey" results will be different. Just wait until the CEO of one company starts talking with the CEO of another company about the custom apps they are running to increase sales yield, increase inventory turns or track employee productivity in the field via GPS.

A closed mind is a dangerous thing...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81850-is-monsanto-really-a-tech-play?source=feed#comment-187913 187913 IP) and the restrictions it puts on farmers who use its products? Thanks, in advance.]]> Wed, 18 Jun 2008 15:40:54 -0400 IP) and the restrictions it puts on farmers who use its products? Thanks, in advance.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81837-why-do-analysts-underestimate-quarterly-earnings?source=feed#comment-187908 187908
I guess if the analysts, in their collective wisdom, lower expectations far enough you can report a "beat". Instead, you should look at ACTUAL earnings on the S&P500 for 1Q08 vs. 1Q07. You'll see the exact same pattern as evidenced in 4Q07.

Now let's use our crystal ball... How do you think earnings will compare for 2Q08? Not to consensus but to 2Q07. My money says "lower". I've positioned accordingly.]]> Wed, 18 Jun 2008 15:30:19 -0400
I guess if the analysts, in their collective wisdom, lower expectations far enough you can report a "beat". Instead, you should look at ACTUAL earnings on the S&P500 for 1Q08 vs. 1Q07. You'll see the exact same pattern as evidenced in 4Q07.

Now let's use our crystal ball... How do you think earnings will compare for 2Q08? Not to consensus but to 2Q07. My money says "lower". I've positioned accordingly.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81700-investment-banks-through-a-glass-darkly?source=feed#comment-187899 187899 Wed, 18 Jun 2008 15:19:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77911-sandisk-flash-sales-soft-in-april-at-retail?source=feed#comment-170237 170237 Mon, 19 May 2008 19:31:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74097-for-microsoft-apple-is-the-elephant-in-the-os-room?source=feed#comment-156611 156611
My smallish (60 employees) company is wed to Wintel because of the software apps. Several senior managers and half the sales force are using Macs and emulating XP only to communicate with the server or to run some data analysis/graphing software. Office is run in the native OSX environment. The office staff all use Dell products.

Also, given the mobile nature of our sales force -- roughly half the employees -- the iPhone would be a natural fit. We already run a mobile platform to access our inventory and provide real-time order entry. Blackberries are the preferred device at this point, but we spent some time brainstorming ideas to exploit the iPhone's ability to run new applications. The biggest hiccup seems to be linking into our SQL database because we use Dynamics on the front end.

We may be forced to use Vista at some point in the future, just like we were forced to abandon Server 2000 when it was perfectly functional, but we're hoping there will be enough corporate pressure to continue support for XP past the June cut-off. Upgrading to Vista would be a large enough expense to warrant a full evaluation of our IT needs. Also, we do not have a dedicated IT person in-house. KISS... please.]]> Fri, 25 Apr 2008 12:06:56 -0400
My smallish (60 employees) company is wed to Wintel because of the software apps. Several senior managers and half the sales force are using Macs and emulating XP only to communicate with the server or to run some data analysis/graphing software. Office is run in the native OSX environment. The office staff all use Dell products.

Also, given the mobile nature of our sales force -- roughly half the employees -- the iPhone would be a natural fit. We already run a mobile platform to access our inventory and provide real-time order entry. Blackberries are the preferred device at this point, but we spent some time brainstorming ideas to exploit the iPhone's ability to run new applications. The biggest hiccup seems to be linking into our SQL database because we use Dynamics on the front end.

We may be forced to use Vista at some point in the future, just like we were forced to abandon Server 2000 when it was perfectly functional, but we're hoping there will be enough corporate pressure to continue support for XP past the June cut-off. Upgrading to Vista would be a large enough expense to warrant a full evaluation of our IT needs. Also, we do not have a dedicated IT person in-house. KISS... please.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73899-microsoft-s-quarter-and-outlook-are-a-mixed-bag-update-3?source=feed#comment-156148 156148
How long before MSFT decides to release Dyanamics for OSX? We can debate the point where AAPLs penetration of the enterprise market reaches the tipping point. But my question, which once would have been laughable, needs to be considered.

I have no doubt that MSFT will defend aggressively its dominant position. But at some point the good people in Redmond will not be able to ignore the fact that there are alternative operating systems. Operation Trojan Horse (aka iPhone) looks like a major success. Welcome to the wonderful world of AAPL.]]> Thu, 24 Apr 2008 17:35:04 -0400
How long before MSFT decides to release Dyanamics for OSX? We can debate the point where AAPLs penetration of the enterprise market reaches the tipping point. But my question, which once would have been laughable, needs to be considered.

I have no doubt that MSFT will defend aggressively its dominant position. But at some point the good people in Redmond will not be able to ignore the fact that there are alternative operating systems. Operation Trojan Horse (aka iPhone) looks like a major success. Welcome to the wonderful world of AAPL.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73670-apple-confirms-iphones-targets-but-will-defer-some-hardware-numbers?source=feed#comment-155565 155565 Wed, 23 Apr 2008 19:35:44 -0400