Troutbum

How to Spend $700B and Actually Solve the Problem

Look folks- The gov't makes money here; Mark-to-Market is part of the problem- value longterm assests on a shortterm fluctuating basis is wrong. This will eventually be corrected.

But right now the gov't is going to pick or "real" assest that; becuase they can hold and have a longer term horizon- WILL re-flate and appreciate.

This whole issue at the moment is about crisis of confidence not the $$$$$ - and the irresponsible polititicians who do not understand this are dealing with more than fire - they are dealing with "china syndrom" financial meltdown -

That is why the deal will get done with appropriate "CEO pay" window dressing and LONG XLF is the right position to be in.


On Sep 25 10:18 AM TheBookkeepe r wrote:

> This makes sense, and it approaches the solution used in the Great
> Depression, when commercial banks were formed. They could only lend
> county-wide. Banks became a service the citizenry that were restricted
> from gambling with the citizen's money that was on deposit..

Playing for a Bounce?

I'm on board; good to see all the naysayers here another sign of irrational panic and capitulation. Anyone who thinks 30% moves in Goldamn or Morgan are justified do not have a clue.

Just how far do you think governments (all governments) will let this panic go?

Re: the short selling- layoff the guy. Naked Short selling has not been illegal- coupled with the no uptick rule has lead to the markets moving too fast...well beyond fundamentals and the abiliyt of institutions to react.

So bottom line; once governments step in, slow down the action, bring a little rationality and stability back...money will flow back in and there will be an updraft...significant updraft as we are way oversold.

I'm not talking raging bull only more than a dead cat bounce...and I am in for the ride baby.

The Impending Mortgage Crisis

Another Chicken Little; There is litte evidence that the subprime crisis has been nothing more than a banking/balance sheet paper excercise. "OH REALLY- WHAT ABOUT BEAR STEARN...QUITE A WORKOUT" you say. Bottom line is that bear stearns did not need to fail it was allowed to fail. AND...wait to you experience the balance sheet WRITE -UPs from all of the overshot bad loan provisions. Yes alot of paper value has gone up in smoke...but with the exception of a couple of hot market such as FLA and VEGAS the home default/home value deflation crisis is simply not occuring. Markets are adjusting, sales are happening, people are renting v. purchasing, banks can refi., they are not motivated sellers - smart lenders want people to stay in the homes...and while I'm ranting I refinance twice over the past 5 years with both an ARM and a fixed...the lecture I had to recieve when closing on the ARM about the adjustments, risk to my home ownership, etc...let no-one say that lenders were unscrupulous (for the most part-there are always shady operators) the risks of all ARM options were clearly spelled out to mortgagees...