Melancholy Korean's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/182668/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/90246-gold-and-silver-turn-bearish-no-conspiracy-here?source=feed#comment-227562 227562
Don't even bother. People are going to believe what they need/want to believe. It's funny because today, with so much information out there, all one has to do is just click a button to find legitimate sources of information and data--good, hard stuff that would have been impossible even ten years ago. The playing field has never been more level. There is less reason for the usual excuses than ever, but surprise, same old crap: It's always a "conspiracy" when people start losing money.

Hey, go ahead and sit in the echo chamber and rant. Whatever. More players in the market, the better!]]> Mon, 11 Aug 2008 07:38:07 -0400
Don't even bother. People are going to believe what they need/want to believe. It's funny because today, with so much information out there, all one has to do is just click a button to find legitimate sources of information and data--good, hard stuff that would have been impossible even ten years ago. The playing field has never been more level. There is less reason for the usual excuses than ever, but surprise, same old crap: It's always a "conspiracy" when people start losing money.

Hey, go ahead and sit in the echo chamber and rant. Whatever. More players in the market, the better!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90247-contrarian-trading-tips-gold-the-dollar-energy-and-financials?source=feed#comment-227554 227554
that would be the first mistake. trying to outsmart the market is the mark of a novice or a fool--a well-capitalized and lucky fool, perhaps, but still.

Russia invading Georgia is def a big deal for oil and gold, you may get a bounce to get out of underwater long positions, but dollar strength is real. ]]> Mon, 11 Aug 2008 07:22:16 -0400
that would be the first mistake. trying to outsmart the market is the mark of a novice or a fool--a well-capitalized and lucky fool, perhaps, but still.

Russia invading Georgia is def a big deal for oil and gold, you may get a bounce to get out of underwater long positions, but dollar strength is real. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90230-what-s-next-for-the-u-s-dollar?source=feed#comment-227549 227549 Mon, 11 Aug 2008 07:17:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89455-why-gold-is-the-new-currency?source=feed#comment-224601 224601 Wed, 06 Aug 2008 22:25:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/88866-the-u-s-dollar-a-new-accord?source=feed#comment-222791 222791
Why such pleasure in Doomsday? Life not interesting enough? If everyone is a failure, then no one is?? I'll take the US economy any day over those of Russia, China, "Europe," Brazil, India, yadada. Long term, medium short, short term.

Curious why someone so intelligent would bother with this crowd, but I appreciate it! Thanks. ]]> Mon, 04 Aug 2008 22:00:59 -0400
Why such pleasure in Doomsday? Life not interesting enough? If everyone is a failure, then no one is?? I'll take the US economy any day over those of Russia, China, "Europe," Brazil, India, yadada. Long term, medium short, short term.

Curious why someone so intelligent would bother with this crowd, but I appreciate it! Thanks. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87945-will-the-fed-actually-raise-rates-next-week?source=feed#comment-218947 218947
No. ]]> Wed, 30 Jul 2008 23:11:20 -0400
No. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85669-historic-financial-collapse-underway?source=feed#comment-208545 208545
The only bankruptcy that buying puts outright is good for is the personal kind. If you want to gamble, go to Vegas. It's a hell of a lot more fun. ]]> Fri, 18 Jul 2008 09:54:02 -0400
The only bankruptcy that buying puts outright is good for is the personal kind. If you want to gamble, go to Vegas. It's a hell of a lot more fun. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85021-lehman-the-bottom-is-in?source=feed#comment-206037 206037 Tue, 15 Jul 2008 11:30:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85042-dollar-falls-to-record-low-over-fannie-and-freddie?source=feed#comment-206028 206028
Can't speak about her experience, but it's clear you don't have any.

Are you someone (not a trader, clearly) who has to be right about the market every day? Even better, you ARE right about the market every day, right? Why so bitter, then? Been buying FNM on the dips 'cause you just know it's a great company? Married to that long dollar position? ]]> Tue, 15 Jul 2008 11:27:07 -0400
Can't speak about her experience, but it's clear you don't have any.

Are you someone (not a trader, clearly) who has to be right about the market every day? Even better, you ARE right about the market every day, right? Why so bitter, then? Been buying FNM on the dips 'cause you just know it's a great company? Married to that long dollar position? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83667-major-catalysts-to-cause-euro-breakout-vs-dollar?source=feed#comment-197752 197752 Thu, 03 Jul 2008 07:35:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83494-it-is-time-to-go-long-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-197068 197068
And the timing has gotten a lot trickier since the Fed and ECB are playing games and are themselves confused about what to do. "Murky" is right.

Your article doesn't help to clarify any of the confusion. ]]> Wed, 02 Jul 2008 08:34:34 -0400
And the timing has gotten a lot trickier since the Fed and ECB are playing games and are themselves confused about what to do. "Murky" is right.

Your article doesn't help to clarify any of the confusion. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83314-why-i-avoid-the-euro-zone?source=feed#comment-196512 196512 Tue, 01 Jul 2008 10:06:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83309-weekly-market-outlook-june-30th-july-4th?source=feed#comment-196373 196373
Hmm... I wonder what the absolute top is gonna be. 200? Not 250. No way.

Uh, right?]]> Tue, 01 Jul 2008 04:50:38 -0400
Hmm... I wonder what the absolute top is gonna be. 200? Not 250. No way.

Uh, right?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83253-euro-rallies-to-three-week-high-vs-dollar?source=feed#comment-196155 196155 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 16:44:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83245-end-of-quarter-dollar-assessment?source=feed#comment-196152 196152 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 16:41:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83240-critique-of-dollar-policy?source=feed#comment-196137 196137 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 16:05:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82968-the-budget-deficit-and-declining-dollar?source=feed#comment-194051 194051
Look, I'm a Republican too, but that's a cheap shot. Half our budget goes toward the military. Where was our party, or at least the fiscal conservatives, as opposed to the "neoconservatives" (neo-Trotskyites) on the Iraq war? Talk about a truly idiotic use of our funds. And the Laffer curve? That was pushed hard by Ronald "Reagan" (or did you meant Don Regan)? In any case, both of 'em.

Not that the Dems have any answers. The housing bailout bill is only going to prolong the adjustment in prices that needs to take place. Whether it happens in four quarters or four years or forty years, eventually, prices will have to fall back to reasonable levels. ]]> Fri, 27 Jun 2008 09:36:39 -0400
Look, I'm a Republican too, but that's a cheap shot. Half our budget goes toward the military. Where was our party, or at least the fiscal conservatives, as opposed to the "neoconservatives" (neo-Trotskyites) on the Iraq war? Talk about a truly idiotic use of our funds. And the Laffer curve? That was pushed hard by Ronald "Reagan" (or did you meant Don Regan)? In any case, both of 'em.

Not that the Dems have any answers. The housing bailout bill is only going to prolong the adjustment in prices that needs to take place. Whether it happens in four quarters or four years or forty years, eventually, prices will have to fall back to reasonable levels. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82976-my-take-on-the-ecb-head-fake?source=feed#comment-194041 194041
I'd like to buy far out of the money options, like 5 delta, on the euro going away in five years. ]]> Fri, 27 Jun 2008 09:27:53 -0400
I'd like to buy far out of the money options, like 5 delta, on the euro going away in five years. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82688-is-the-fed-being-hawkish-enough?source=feed#comment-192943 192943
1.3 trillion in mortgage losses? Whatever. As Michael Milken said at the Global Conference, we've had trillion dollar losses before; hell, we've had at least three of 'em in the past twenty years (Texas real estate, SNL crisis, dot com). The history of American capitalism is made up of booms and busts. As long as we let the system take the losses, as long as the we let the players adjust without trying to cushion the pain through regulation and artificial props (can you say Dodd housing bill?), the faster we will get out of the coming recession.

"However in the longer term, the US dollar has bottomed out alongside US interest rates and it will only a matter of time before it begins to trend higher once again." Absolutely agree. Of course, it's all in the timing!]]> Wed, 25 Jun 2008 22:51:13 -0400
1.3 trillion in mortgage losses? Whatever. As Michael Milken said at the Global Conference, we've had trillion dollar losses before; hell, we've had at least three of 'em in the past twenty years (Texas real estate, SNL crisis, dot com). The history of American capitalism is made up of booms and busts. As long as we let the system take the losses, as long as the we let the players adjust without trying to cushion the pain through regulation and artificial props (can you say Dodd housing bill?), the faster we will get out of the coming recession.

"However in the longer term, the US dollar has bottomed out alongside US interest rates and it will only a matter of time before it begins to trend higher once again." Absolutely agree. Of course, it's all in the timing!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81497-opec-s-move-to-devalue-the-euro?source=feed#comment-186787 186787 Mon, 16 Jun 2008 20:54:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81216-will-the-dollar-recovery-launch-a-bank-rally?source=feed#comment-184737 184737 Fri, 13 Jun 2008 06:41:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81070-dollar-krone-relationship-a-sign-of-peak-oil?source=feed#comment-184050 184050 Thu, 12 Jun 2008 09:18:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80772-the-push-for-a-stronger-dollar?source=feed#comment-182906 182906
Thanks, Bernanke and company. You're gonna save us from that smelly French man, after all!]]> Tue, 10 Jun 2008 20:01:00 -0400
Thanks, Bernanke and company. You're gonna save us from that smelly French man, after all!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80746-bernanke-hoping-increased-dollar-will-ease-inflation?source=feed#comment-182905 182905 Tue, 10 Jun 2008 19:58:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80695-ecb-avalanche-may-bury-inflation-concerns-in-a-recession?source=feed#comment-182351 182351
"But oil and energy prices are one of the main drivers of European and worldwide inflation. The price of crude had fallen to below $122.00. On Friday it closed at $138.54. The dollar lost 2.6% against the euro on Thursday and Friday; the price of oil rose more than 8.4% on Friday alone. The Thursday and Friday rise in oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was a record for the exchange.

"The ECB has damaged its own case against inflation. What will generate higher inflationary expectations more than a sharp hike in gasoline prices? Would not a sustained 15% or 20 % drop in the price of oil do more to counter inflation in Europe than threatening to push a rate increase on a slipping European economy? Will not higher energy prices further undermine European GDP and fracture consumer spending?"]]> Tue, 10 Jun 2008 08:37:42 -0400
"But oil and energy prices are one of the main drivers of European and worldwide inflation. The price of crude had fallen to below $122.00. On Friday it closed at $138.54. The dollar lost 2.6% against the euro on Thursday and Friday; the price of oil rose more than 8.4% on Friday alone. The Thursday and Friday rise in oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was a record for the exchange.

"The ECB has damaged its own case against inflation. What will generate higher inflationary expectations more than a sharp hike in gasoline prices? Would not a sustained 15% or 20 % drop in the price of oil do more to counter inflation in Europe than threatening to push a rate increase on a slipping European economy? Will not higher energy prices further undermine European GDP and fracture consumer spending?"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80647-nationalizing-oil-well-intentioned-but-wrong?source=feed#comment-182278 182278
Of course, and I don't mean to get off on a tangent here, but who should we blame for awakening the untamed beast of populism? I think the Idiot Son and the war in Iraq is probably a good place to start, but maybe also Slick shares some blame, especially his move to eliminate welfare.

The consequences of a real "worker's revolution" in America would be dramatic and severe (the probability is small, I grant) so I just want to ask all the traders out there, don't you think a decent, or even minimal, social safety net a great hedge against this kind of political risk?

Why sell that downside put? Is the extra premium from saving money on the safety net worth the (small) chance that hoards of angry, hungry, desperate people will march in the streets? That people who have just lost their homes and jobs, who have lost their retirement savings because of the deflating of the tech or housing bubble, who have nowhere to go and no one to turn to, aren't you worried they might vote for dramatic change? Or worse? ]]> Tue, 10 Jun 2008 05:58:13 -0400
Of course, and I don't mean to get off on a tangent here, but who should we blame for awakening the untamed beast of populism? I think the Idiot Son and the war in Iraq is probably a good place to start, but maybe also Slick shares some blame, especially his move to eliminate welfare.

The consequences of a real "worker's revolution" in America would be dramatic and severe (the probability is small, I grant) so I just want to ask all the traders out there, don't you think a decent, or even minimal, social safety net a great hedge against this kind of political risk?

Why sell that downside put? Is the extra premium from saving money on the safety net worth the (small) chance that hoards of angry, hungry, desperate people will march in the streets? That people who have just lost their homes and jobs, who have lost their retirement savings because of the deflating of the tech or housing bubble, who have nowhere to go and no one to turn to, aren't you worried they might vote for dramatic change? Or worse? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80563-bernanke-s-backfire-now-what?source=feed#comment-182121 182121
Great article. Painted into corner is right on. Raising US rates now would be suicidal, not raising rates devastating, letting the ECB lead the way depressing (literally).

Two questions:
(a) did the probability of Euro going away tick up ever so slightly this past week?
(b) why is monetary policy always cast in moral terms? Strong medicine, "toughness," etc etc. ]]> Mon, 09 Jun 2008 19:04:59 -0400
Great article. Painted into corner is right on. Raising US rates now would be suicidal, not raising rates devastating, letting the ECB lead the way depressing (literally).

Two questions:
(a) did the probability of Euro going away tick up ever so slightly this past week?
(b) why is monetary policy always cast in moral terms? Strong medicine, "toughness," etc etc. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80555-inflation-triangle-dilemma-dollar-oil-euro?source=feed#comment-181728 181728
Anyway, nice article. Triangle is exactly right. Why Tricky can't hold steady and let the differential tighten, or at least stay constant, is beyond me. I'm sure Bernanke would love to raise rates to catch up and is looking for any sign of strength to do so, but the frog wants to play tough guy, I guess. ]]> Mon, 09 Jun 2008 05:25:53 -0400
Anyway, nice article. Triangle is exactly right. Why Tricky can't hold steady and let the differential tighten, or at least stay constant, is beyond me. I'm sure Bernanke would love to raise rates to catch up and is looking for any sign of strength to do so, but the frog wants to play tough guy, I guess. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80543-ecb-move-an-opportunity-to-trim-international-exposure?source=feed#comment-181538 181538
Good luck to our European allies with the higher rates (weaker dollar, higher oil prices). Strong medicine sure tastes good. It's almost as addicting as moral indignation. ]]> Sun, 08 Jun 2008 19:16:20 -0400
Good luck to our European allies with the higher rates (weaker dollar, higher oil prices). Strong medicine sure tastes good. It's almost as addicting as moral indignation. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80385-trichet-ecb-missing-the-point-with-crude?source=feed#comment-180646 180646 Fri, 06 Jun 2008 19:21:27 -0400