Melancholy Korean

Contrarian Trading Tips: Gold, the Dollar, Energy and Financials

"but I believe buying low and selling high is the objective"

that would be the first mistake. trying to outsmart the market is the mark of a novice or a fool--a well-capitalized and lucky fool, perhaps, but still.

Russia invading Georgia is def a big deal for oil and gold, you may get a bounce to get out of underwater long positions, but dollar strength is real.

What's Next for the U.S. Dollar?

nice article. the US may be in a bad spot, but in a relative game, it's how we are doing versus, say, Europe, that matters. and they're behind the curve with rates. as you note, "cold commodities" reinforce dollar strength. and if the carry trade starts getting unwound...

Weekly Market Outlook: June 30th - July 4th

"we finally got a surprise build in oil inventories and even with that, prices were able to move higher. Generally when bearish news is ignored and prices trade higher it should tell you that prices are moving north."

Hmm... I wonder what the absolute top is gonna be. 200? Not 250. No way.

Uh, right?

Euro Rallies to Three-Week High Vs. Dollar

US dollar. sigh. why so weak and sickly, babe?

OPEC's Move to Devalue the Euro

gonna be a bumpy ride, especially with Tricky playing his stupid power games, but I think you're right. Dollar's still got room to strengthen, oil is overvalued, but shorting euro - dollar is a safer way to play than shorting oil. oil is now in stupid bubble territory. explosive upside moves, even to ridiculous levels like 200 or 250--that Russian oil minister think he's Henry Blodget?--are no longer off the table. but eventually, oil (tulips, corn, wheat, silver, gold, tech, housing, energy stocks, Nifty Fifty, South Sea Trading, railroads) will come crashing down.

ECB Avalanche May Bury Inflation Concerns in a Recession

Finally, finally. Thank you. Ultimately, the moral indignation that Europeans feel at the thought that the US might be pissed by Tricky's comments this past week miss the point. It's not some great pissing contest (which, of course, the Europeans would lose, since we have a bigger army and the willingness to use it.) It's about a sensible policy for the Europeans themselves.

"But oil and energy prices are one of the main drivers of European and worldwide inflation. The price of crude had fallen to below $122.00. On Friday it closed at $138.54. The dollar lost 2.6% against the euro on Thursday and Friday; the price of oil rose more than 8.4% on Friday alone. The Thursday and Friday rise in oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was a record for the exchange.

"The ECB has damaged its own case against inflation. What will generate higher inflationary expectations more than a sharp hike in gasoline prices? Would not a sustained 15% or 20 % drop in the price of oil do more to counter inflation in Europe than threatening to push a rate increase on a slipping European economy? Will not higher energy prices further undermine European GDP and fracture consumer spending?"

Trichet, ECB Missing the Point with Crude

ECB

Trichet, ECB Missing the Point with Crude

Wrong. The Euro's over-valued vs. the dollar. It's not about the ECM playing second fiddle to the Fed, it's about global financial stability. The Fed's done with rate cuts. Fine. Good. Everyone and their grandmother is now a freakin' expert in macroeconomics. Inflation is a problem. Got it.

But Tricky raising rates here doesn't "protect" the Europeans if the dollar gets screwed. Everyone suffers in that environment. Oh, wait, you believe in decoupling. Right.

Buy Low, Sell High: Right Time for the Former

wonderful!