Melancholy Korean

The U.S. Dollar: A New Accord

Great article. Predictable that so many are now so bearish on the US, whether the economy, the dollar, Fed policy (everyone is an expert on monetary policy, except for the real experts--right, right) and bullish on gold and those "hot commodities," which are growing colder by the day. (Rogers got long ten years ago.)

Why such pleasure in Doomsday? Life not interesting enough? If everyone is a failure, then no one is?? I'll take the US economy any day over those of Russia, China, "Europe," Brazil, India, yadada. Long term, medium short, short term.

Curious why someone so intelligent would bother with this crowd, but I appreciate it! Thanks.

Will the Fed Actually Raise Rates Next Week?

Will the Fed raise rates next week?

No.

Historic Financial Collapse Underway?

If you want to play the bankruptcy game and buy puts, let's see, the 10 delta put in FNM for September expiry, the 5 strike, looks like it's trading for .80 cents, which works out to an implied vol of 230. It's low delta, not much gamma to trade, even if the stock's realized vol the last few days has been up at crazy levels. It's more of a binary option on the equity going to zero, ok, I get that, so maybe you don't care the break-even is 4.20, but do you really want to gamble on the timing like this?

The only bankruptcy that buying puts outright is good for is the personal kind. If you want to gamble, go to Vegas. It's a hell of a lot more fun.