Melancholy Korean

Contrarian Trading Tips: Gold, the Dollar, Energy and Financials

"but I believe buying low and selling high is the objective"

that would be the first mistake. trying to outsmart the market is the mark of a novice or a fool--a well-capitalized and lucky fool, perhaps, but still.

Russia invading Georgia is def a big deal for oil and gold, you may get a bounce to get out of underwater long positions, but dollar strength is real.

Weekly Market Outlook: June 30th - July 4th

"we finally got a surprise build in oil inventories and even with that, prices were able to move higher. Generally when bearish news is ignored and prices trade higher it should tell you that prices are moving north."

Hmm... I wonder what the absolute top is gonna be. 200? Not 250. No way.

Uh, right?

OPEC's Move to Devalue the Euro

gonna be a bumpy ride, especially with Tricky playing his stupid power games, but I think you're right. Dollar's still got room to strengthen, oil is overvalued, but shorting euro - dollar is a safer way to play than shorting oil. oil is now in stupid bubble territory. explosive upside moves, even to ridiculous levels like 200 or 250--that Russian oil minister think he's Henry Blodget?--are no longer off the table. but eventually, oil (tulips, corn, wheat, silver, gold, tech, housing, energy stocks, Nifty Fifty, South Sea Trading, railroads) will come crashing down.

Inflation Triangle Dilemma: Dollar / Oil / Euro

I'm sensing a new contrary indicator--moronic commentators. Oil must be nearing its high and the dollar close to bottoming, if this is your new demographic.

Anyway, nice article. Triangle is exactly right. Why Tricky can't hold steady and let the differential tighten, or at least stay constant, is beyond me. I'm sure Bernanke would love to raise rates to catch up and is looking for any sign of strength to do so, but the frog wants to play tough guy, I guess.

Trichet, ECB Missing the Point with Crude

ECB

Trichet, ECB Missing the Point with Crude

Wrong. The Euro's over-valued vs. the dollar. It's not about the ECM playing second fiddle to the Fed, it's about global financial stability. The Fed's done with rate cuts. Fine. Good. Everyone and their grandmother is now a freakin' expert in macroeconomics. Inflation is a problem. Got it.

But Tricky raising rates here doesn't "protect" the Europeans if the dollar gets screwed. Everyone suffers in that environment. Oh, wait, you believe in decoupling. Right.