archman82011

83 Comments

    • Why Thornburg Mortgage Will Survive [view article]
      The author writes:
      "The tender requirement has been met and Thornburg will now have the assets and capital to resume business operations"

      Yes, but for how long? As usual, most people seem to think that this housing/credit/debt bubble is somehow going to be done with over the next 6 months. Of course we have been hearing that for the past 16 months already.

      As someone who is based in NY, involved for the past 20 years in the housing industry, and with contacts all over the US, I can state with authority the housing mess (the real root problem that exposed how corrupt and leveraged our financial system really is) is far from over.

      I hope your long position in TMA is not to large. They are going bankrupt and will be gone within the next 12 months.

      Note- I hold no short position, in any market, with respect to TMA.

      Good luck.       Aug 21 09:48 AM
    • SEC Considering 'Market-Wide' Short Sale Rule [view article]
      Naked shorting is a problem and yes it should be dealt with.
      However, lets get to the "real" reason the SEC wants a "broad" short sale rule.

      Behind closed doors they are being told by our corrupt government and our FED to reign in "all" short selling in order to keep the markets afloat. Period. We are in an election year. We cant have the nation being to miserable thanks to the criminals on Wall Street and the greedy bankers who helped to bankrupt the system.

      Anyone who thinks that the SEC is acting in the "best" interest of investors, or acting as if they are trying to do "the right thing" needs to wake up and remember what Wall Street is. A Ponzi, marketing scheme, where once you understand what Wall Street is about, you can do quite well.

      Anything they do that affects the true free market system of our markets is only going to undermine the integrity of those markets and make people less willing to invest in markets they know are corrupt and manipulated.       Aug 20 05:01 PM
    • Sequoia Fund Reopens After 26 Years: A Look Inside [view article]
      archchanceII:

      Nope. I am not about to tone back the cynicism and take a more measured approach.
      The majority of mutual fund managers are criminals who can only make money in bull markets and who do nothing to preserve a fund holders money in bear markets. There is no excuse as to why these overpaid, educated, MBA types, who all claim to be experts in the field, should lose even close to what the S & P 500 loses in a bear market.

      I do not think I am smarter than anyone, Not you, not anyone. I am just a simple, self employed family man. No MBA, and I do not manage money for a living. I invest only in stocks.
      My 15 yr annualized portfolio return: +20%
      My only losing year: 2002, down -4%
      My YTD return: +5%.

      Why is it "a nobody" like me, can manage my money, and have the sort of returns that 99.9% of fund managers cannot even come close to attaining? Because I have a true vested interest in managing my money and I do not get paid for it, regardless of how the returns are.

      Just ask all the fund holders of the "legendary" Bill Miller how they are feeling today. His fund is exactly where it was back in 1998. I am sure, as he is sailing around in his yacht, counting his hundreds of millions in the bank, he is thinking of all his fund holders...LOL.

      Not.       Aug 18 05:42 PM
    • Sequoia Fund Reopens After 26 Years: A Look Inside [view article]
      I agree with the above poster.
      But lets get to the "real" reason the fund is re-opening.
      The fund has had big outflow net redemptions over the past few years and the greedy "asset gathering" management does not like to see their paychecks shrinking.
      So what they do is say to the public "We see so many opportunities out there, we want more cash to make buys in the market"

      LOL. What a crock.

      These people, like all mutual fund managers are asset gatherers who make money on the amount of assets they manage, not on their returns.

      Mutual funds are the worst possible investments out there and if someone does not have time to manage a portfolio, they should be invested in extremely low cost ETF's and that's it.       Aug 18 12:14 PM
    • Market Outlook: It's Still All About Housing [view article]
      Here is the problem with JasonC's information.

      While all that household net worth and disposable income sounds great, those of us who follow the real details know that all that net worth and disposable income belong to the top 10% of this country that control 90% of all that net worth.

      If everyone was so well off, flush with cash, and so wealthy, the country would not be in the situation it is today. Also, consumer credit card debt owed, is now just a hair under a trillion dollars and as reported just this week, is expanding at an even faster pace, due to the lack of real disposable income that the "average" american has at their disposal.

      If we are such a wealthy nation, how come people just dont pay off all that credit card debt? Why do they happily pay 15,20,25% and more in annual interest when they cannot even get those returns in the stock market?
      I'll tell you why...they cant.
      They cant because the majority of americans are broke, living paycheck to paycheck while the top 10% (like me..sorry to sound so arrogant) control 90% of the wealth.
      I think JasonC has been brainwashed by the govt which does its best to convince everyone that we are all equal and everything is right with the world.

      Wake up pal. It is not. Trust me, I know. When you are not like everyone else, and are not part of the system you know exactly how things are.       Aug 12 05:45 PM
    • Financials: Bottoms Happen When Everyone's Convinced They Won't [view article]
      Tom:

      If only you were a good money manager, one who makes money in bull markets, then preserves wealth during bear markets.

      Then we wouldnt have to be subjected to what has been almost twice weekly for 5 weeks now, a slew of articles trying to convince everyone that now is the time to buy.

      Then there are those of us, who even though we are simple people, with no MBA, no formal training in finance, who have managed to guide their self directed portfolios to 15 year annualized returns of 20%, and who currently are up about 5% for the year thus far VS all the crappy returns for the major averages.

      Dont worry Tom, I am sure with some luck, within 2 years or so, you will make all your clients money back, then you can start collecting your performance fees again. If not, you can always go on CNBC and collect some appearance fees to pass the time.       Aug 10 03:13 PM
    • Seven Reasons To Avoid Gold - And Why You Should Ignore Them [view article]
      I do not own Gold. nor have I ever for that matter.
      I agree with every single one of your points though.

      The dynamics of the US and its economy have changed.

      You have a government that outright lies to it's citizens, and they stand for it because they care who wins Dancing with the Stars, more than their own future well being.

      Then you have a Fed and Treasury that has essentially asked for, and gotten a blank check, to bail out all the wealthy elitists who played irresponsibly with their play money. That blank check comes with all americans names signed at the bottom, and again, americans stand for it.

      We will eventually wake from our stupor, long after it is too late, and as with most American self inflicted situations, look to blame everyone but ourselves.

      We are a joke nation now and deserve everything we have coming to us.       Aug 07 01:34 PM
    • Dow Jones 300+ Point Moves and Bear Markets [view article]
      RE: my above post:

      I mean to say the correction in 1998 was part of the 20 year "bull" market.       Aug 06 08:44 PM
    • Dow Jones 300+ Point Moves and Bear Markets [view article]
      Way to funny. The arguments presented cancelled themselves out based on the charts provided. 1998 was not a bear market to begin with. It was a correction during the last phase of the great 20 year bear market.
      In 2002 we did have those 300 point plus days, however you were still able to buy the market close to the lows in early 2003, which really marked the start of the last mini bull market.
      What is quite comical is that we had a bear market as technically defined as a bear market for about 2 days this spring when the S & P finally was down 20% from the high.
      Comical.
      The second we got there we were already hearing talk of "bottom" et al, and the media were using words such as "horrific" to describe the market. HA. Horrific my a*s. Talk to me if the market was down 40%. Now thats horrific.

      There has been no improvement whatsoever (other that what the media defines as "good news") in any area of the economy. Housing is still a disaster, the credit crisis is far from over, and consumers are still flat broke and in debt up to their eyeballs.

      See, if you are an "investor", like me, and don't rely on "Fast or Mad money" to create wealth, you are up 6% for the year as I am and have the luxury of sitting back and watching all the arm flapping bulls as they "hope and pray" the market recovers.

      Things take time to work themselves out, and the ongoing credit crisis, and economic slump is far from over.       Aug 06 05:49 PM
    • Merrill's Muddled Analysis: Another Reason I'm Bullish on Financials [view article]
      Ok. So lets see, this must be at least article number 5 from Tom Brown in the past month as he attempts to pump the financials. I mean then again he does run a long only financials hedge fund.
      Maybe Tom should have waited until FRE reported this morning.
      They again confirm, what will continue to be confirmed for the foreseeable future. A long chain of interlocked losses:

      Homeowners are in debt up their eyeballs and keep defaulting.
      Businesses in turn are suffering.
      The insurance, derivatives, MBS instruments and everything else associated with those contracts keep getting destroyed in value.
      Companies cant raise cash fast enough to match the declines.
      The leverage of 20:1 in some cases makes everything that much worse.
      All this coupled with an economy that has been slow and getting slower (regardless of the manipulated govt data we see- and yes folks we all know its manipulated).

      Tom will be right at "some point". From his point of view he has to be for his sake. He needs to be right. Again when your a hedge fund manager of a long only financial hedge fund you better be right sooner than later.

       Aug 06 07:43 AM
    • FOMC Meeting: Fed Talks Tough on Inflation [view article]
      Give me a break.
      The Fed is talking tough on d*ck.

      Their statement was a joke. It was a statement that was meant to pacify every single person's view on the economy and the market. Wether bull or bear.

      Things take a lot of time to work themselves out. The housing crisis is far from over and banks et al, still have a few hundred billion to go on write downs. (just wait for the BAC write downs, and if think they aren't coming then you deserve to lose your money)

      Consumer debt is just a hair under 1 trillion dollars (thats not mortgages or HELOC's) but pure credit card debt.

      Though some news has been rationalized as good news, there has yet to be any real good news out there, other than what Wall Street spins.

      You can thank the Fed and their daily lending to IB's for the rally and thank the shorts who are covering hand over fist.

      Next Fed move is lower, count on it.       Aug 05 06:33 PM
    • FOMC Statements: Let's Ban the Boilerplate [view article]
      The Fed did everything it could today, to touch on just about every subject to pacify both bull. and bear alike.

      Comical to say the least.

      If anything, it made them sound as if they have no idea what the future might bring and are completely on the fence in terms of Fed policy.

      The Fed statements are made out to be some sort of holy statement by CNBC, but in actuality it is a joke.       Aug 05 06:11 PM
    • The Dog Days of Betwixt and Between [view article]
      Well I for one have no idea where the market might be headed.
      One thing I do know: The Fed and our govt has mad it perfectly clear that they will do whatever is necessary to prop up and manipulate stocks, financials, etc. The intermediate game means that stocks can go up based on nothing more than the govt pumping money into the market, oh and they have been, day after day.

      For the average american:
      They will, at some point (though i dont know how far in the future it will occur) pay the price in a huge way for the Fed and our govt, bailing out their buddies on Wall Street and keeping the elitists who really own our country happy as pie.

      Dow 20000 and Nasdaq 7000? Hardly. Things "take time" to occur and work themselves out, and though some "news" has been rationalized as good news, I have yet to see any "real" good news out there that says the housing crisis is "over", that consumers are flush with cash and have reduced their debt levels to 1980 levels, that people are using cash to pay for things, not credit, that consumer credit starts going down from its current 950 Billion dollar level, etc.

      For those that might think I am a perma bear, well I am not. I am just not excited about investing in a market that is completely manipulated by its govt and where the govt has decided that they can do as they please with taxpayer money.

      That is probably why I am up 6% for the year thus far and the only US listed stock I own is PM.       Aug 05 06:05 PM
    • Americans' Savings and Tax: 1959 vs. Today [view article]
      Here is an interesting tidbit.

      Isn't interesting, that even though the country has always had credit creation as a means to increase the overall economy, look at the first chart shown.

      When did credit (not mortgages) really start to become available to mainstream americans and when did the use of credit in financial markets really start to take off ??

      In the early 1980's, just as the chart shows, where American's savings rates peaked and began their long slide to zero.

      << The problem is the general stupidification and laziness that come with increased availability to live beyond one's means. Why work and then buy a tv when you can do it the other way around and write some IOUs in exchange to willing 'trade partners'?>>

      The above poster's statement is correct. We are a nation of "flash over substance" where people have convinced themselves that if they "look" wealthy, then they must be wealthy.
      The dumbing down of america and this "hip-hop nation lifestyle" has helped to enrich a select few, while using everyone else to help them attain that wealth. I have never seen so many white trash morons who put more effort into deciding what tattoo, or piercing to receive, than actually making adult life changing decisions.

      But thats why the top 10% of the country controls 90% of its net worth, and by the time these dummies figure it out, it will be to late.

       Aug 04 11:23 AM
    • Has Garmin Lost Its Direction? [view article]
      The products that Garmin makes fit into the "fad" department.
      As usual, weak minded americans "get convinced" that they have to have the latest piece of junk if they want to be "in" or "a part of it".

      Friggin morons. Just another thing for americans to waste their money on when they should be trying to get the savings rate above 0 % for a change.

      That is why the top 10% of this country still controls 90% of it's net worth. People still have no idea what real assets are.       Jul 31 02:10 PM
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