adam axler

http://www.bigbigbet.blogspot.com

16 Comments

    • The Bank of America Bug [view article]
      Nobody can beat Citi to the bottom. The question becomes, when will it be bailout time for them. Wachovia has $30 billion in bad loans, Wells Fargo has better reserves than they do. Jun 30 01:46 PM
    • Credit Card Spending Surges, While Retailers Slump [view article]
      Bill, unlike the other box discounters you mention, Kohl's got hammered last quarter (revenue down 27%). DP makes the proper distinguishment from credit cards issued by banks and simply those that make money off merchant fees (Visa, Mastercard). Credit cards tied to actual banks like Capital One have daily increases in delinquency rates.... May 29 11:45 PM
    • Why Inflation Is Lower Than You Think [view article]
      Sounds like Mr. Leonhardt is a fed apologist who thinks "core inflation" shouldn't matter. Nevermind that the government stopped releasing M3 data so we can't track the printing press and 15%/year additional money supply. Nevermind that gas and bananas have doubled, but wages have barely increased. That sounds suspiciously like inflation, doesn't it? May 07 05:41 PM
    • The WSJ Is Wrong on the Housing Crisis [view article]
      Stu, this is the type of comment people should strive for on this site with facts to support opinions/arguments.

      Bearfund, agree with the folly of the "pent-up" demand theory for first-time buyers who will suddenly rush in and save falling prices. When are these first-time buyers converting from savings-less, maxed-out credit card users to a group who can afford a down payment on even a $100K home or condo? No time soon...       May 07 02:59 PM
    • How Long Until the Housing Market Recovers? [view article]
      There was a time not long ago that you simply could not get a loan for more than 6x your income. Combine the new lending standards with the horrible American consumer debt/refusal to save, and people can't afford a down payment on a $100K home, let alone $300 and higher. May 06 03:22 PM
    • How Much are You Willing to Pay for First Solar's Growth? [view article]
      Wow, we better watch it UC before we get kicked off of SA. There's not much room here for cohesive arguments. May 01 07:46 PM
    • The Impending Mortgage Crisis: Part Two [view article]
      Jswede, right on. Foreclosure glut and new lending standards correlated with abysmal credit scores will make it nearly impossible for most to get loans.

      Jcrash and all other Schiller index bashers, irrelevant point on small market disconnect. The truth is that almost every major metropolitan area, you know, areas where most of us live, have been hit hard and that effects the economy, not housing prices in Walla Walla.       May 01 05:29 PM
    • How Much are You Willing to Pay for First Solar's Growth? [view article]
      Thank your for some skepticism and fair disclosure on this stock. I think it's hilarious how few alt energy articles/posts came out today because the pumpers have nothing to say when FSLR goes down 10%. If they had true conviction, they would be telling us to buy on this extraordinary dip. FSLR has had a great run and you got in at an excellent time. I guess they're waiting for CNBC to tell them it's okay before the post again. May 01 05:20 PM
    • Real Estate and Financials: Sell the Rally [view article]
      Not a fan of TA, but think the argument is correct. Homebuilders have had a huge run on unfounded optimism, unless you include Bill Miller's call, who has been getting pounded for 2 years now and is trying to cover himself. RealtTrac estimates that 40% of homes on the market will soon be bank owned. How can a homebuilder sell against that environment? I think we'll also continue to see writedowns of impaired land. Look at Centex's recent sale at $.18/dollar of initial purchase and 1/3 the value listed on their books. Apr 30 12:37 PM
    • Fed Rate Decision To Shield Dollar From Horrid Housing Market [view article]
      Grace, ignore the sexist comments and expand on the facts....RealtyTrac also predicts bank-owned homes will make up 40% of the market in the future, further supporting the inability of anybody to sell a home even at auction prices. Apr 29 08:30 PM
    • Is the Sun Shining on Solar? [view article]
      Wow, you made out better than I did using 07' P/Es for your article!
      seekingalpha.com/artic...

      "Firstly, you have governmental support. Next, you have improving technology, which is reducing costs to create solar electrons. And finally, you have venture money, which is pouring into the market."

      All 3 components of a bubbling sector as per itulip.       Apr 28 11:41 AM
    • Ambac's Earnings: You Can't Make This Stuff Up [view article]
      If you're not interested in this story, then why bother commenting? Whitney, your appearance on Fast Money a few months ago was an excellent one, where you remained convinced these stocks would bottom at 0 despite Ratigan's rant of "but these stocks are up 30% in one day!" Good call. Apr 28 08:14 AM
    • American Express: False Sense of Security? [view article]
      I certainly won't. AmEx is a better business than COF, which has seen a 33% rise in shares over the last 3 months, and has much greater exposure to auto and even home loans. The American consumer is broke. I don't know why there is any optimism about the consumer to take on and pay debt. Apr 25 08:22 PM
    • Those Bubbling Solar Stocks [view article]
      Larsson, if you read my own website, 4/19, you'll see I question whether a time frame for the bubble to burst out to 2010 may not even be reasonable. I even recommend perhaps buying TAN and MOO/DBA in the short-term may provide opportunity to make money on both ends. I certainly didn't imply shorting the basket immediately. But to not include a stock such as FSLR, with its $250 gain in a year's time, I think would be negligent as well.

      Adam       Apr 25 01:31 PM
    • Further Musings on Solar Stocks [view article]
      Jack, appreciate your open analysis including potential pitfalls and overvaluing of a fledgeling industry. My article today was based much more on a momentum/sustainabilit... argument. Your technical analysis of these companies is excellent. Apr 24 10:27 PM
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