lo maximo

Market Outlook: Not Calling Tops and Bottoms Based on Ego Alone

September and October of 2007 were sooooooooooo profitable on the long side! Portfolios grew unbelievably fast...it was beautiful. Did I worry? No, I was happy. I had all the shippers. IBD rated my shippers 99 99 A A A... life was good. Going over the cliff in November felt temporary. After all, those high IBD ratings of 99 99 A A A held up for weeks and months. Then found another service had called them a HOLD early November and called them a SELL late November. Too late for me. I love IBD for finding stocks but don't count on them to ring the bell at the top. I like this guy's article because I think a lot of us have not believed this rally could last...it seems so phony...so manufactured. After all, give me 43 billion and I'll be profitable too. They are throwing so much cash into the system it's like they are buying a good economy for political reasons. But can you make money shorting this phony market? I don't think so. The market will do what the market will do, not what it SHOULD do. You have to climb on board.

Investors Fled out of Leveraged ETFs at Exactly the Wrong Time

Brokers discourage the use of leveraged ETF's...they l advise to get out... How many times have I promised myself I'd never again get conned into selling UYG...and then sold, only to see it go up again. The fact that it is not marginable is another problem. It's as though no one wants the retail investor to make a living. For some reason, I
have a very good feeling about Michael Johnson....he makes so much sense...his advise is excellent in my view.

Fixing the Leveraged ETF Mess

Many happy users of leveraged ETF's out-number the worried author. At recent Trader's Expo in Pasadena, men at Direxion booth carefully explained their product is to be used DAILY...it is NOT for holding over-night. But traders are clearly experimenting......One holds for three days, another for a week. One big trader keeps TNA in his account at all times, along with TZA, as two parts of a pair....
One chap holds FAZ.... sometimes adding FAS for a day or so.

Strange Inconsistencies in the $134.5 Billion Bearer Bond Mystery

What we have here is an exciting mystery film with many plot twists, a variety of suspicious characters, and an amazing surprise ending...I can almost see the credits running....No one will suspect the final
reveal. I see Angelina Jolie on that train....

Bullish on America

The author was right in what he said, but all of that was about the past. Things have changed. Financial institutions have cut credit lines down to the amount already owed. There is no credit available. Banks got billions in bail out funds. Did those banks cut balances of card holders? No. Did they lower fees and rates?
No. They cranked up interest rates to insure than no one will ever get out of debt. Take a look at your credit card statement. You thought you were paying 5% or 7%? No, it's been raised to 27%! They say 70% of economic growth comes out of consumption.
With six million un-employed, companies in chapter ll, millions of homes in foreclosure or short sale, are you sure there are enough
people with cash or credit to buy? How? Banks are hoarding the billions they got.

All Original 3x ETFs Are Down Over Last Six Months

Why would anyone want to short (Bull) FAS? Just buy (Bear)FAZ. Forget about tracking how the 3x Bulls and Bears do over long periods of time. I bought calls on the FAZ.... FAYEI...the May 9's....for $1.85 and sold them 2 days later for $4. It's a short term directional bet. They are not designed for Buy and Hold. I sold them at $4 because that was all I expected to get. Glad I did. They fell back the next morning. Pick your spots.
Don't anticipate, guess or hope. Buy as you see the (Bull) FAS and XLF falling...and (Bear) FAZ heading up.....And don't let the sun set on the trade unless you see financials are weak. If financials are perking up, dump your BEAR calls. You'll get another chance.

Gendell's Tontine Associates Doing Some Serious Unwinding

Two surprises for me: He added SKF and reduced UYG just as the financials are making their come-back. Or are they?

Leveraged ETFs: Intraday Pricing Trends

I'm not troubled by the slight miss. I'd like to hear your views on whether it's better to sell every night or whether it's best to hold some ETF's in your account through the ups and downs because it's so difficult to get in and out quickly enough. If you decide to get out of the SKF at 200, for example, it's 189 before your finger hits the sell key.