rsinvestor's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/182954/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/107375-what-would-lou-do?source=feed#comment-312399 312399 Sat, 22 Nov 2008 10:16:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/11818?source=feed#comment-311577 311577 Fri, 21 Nov 2008 08:54:27 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106986-widening-rich-poor-gap-spreads-contradict-global-recovery?source=feed#comment-310854 310854
And by the way, Capitalism is most assuredly not dead. The hiccups we go through every so often are a natural stepping stone to a more efficient form of capitalism. What doesn't kill it makes it stronger.]]> Thu, 20 Nov 2008 11:30:46 -0500
And by the way, Capitalism is most assuredly not dead. The hiccups we go through every so often are a natural stepping stone to a more efficient form of capitalism. What doesn't kill it makes it stronger.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106306-more-doom-ahead?source=feed#comment-307710 307710 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 08:03:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106176-ecri-economy-falling-at-fastest-pace-in-60-years?source=feed#comment-307428 307428 Sun, 16 Nov 2008 17:59:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106054-is-the-worst-over-let-s-keep-our-options-open?source=feed#comment-305898 305898 Absolutely program trading caused the 15 minute swoosh yesterday at 12:45. Everyone and their granny had stops at S&P 839 (intraday low on 10/10). Those got taken out without hesitation. Then, out of nowhere, short covering seems to be the driver for the 11% swing up. Once traders realized that the "short the support breach" wasn't working, volume continued higher on the up move.]]> Fri, 14 Nov 2008 08:38:24 -0500 Absolutely program trading caused the 15 minute swoosh yesterday at 12:45. Everyone and their granny had stops at S&P 839 (intraday low on 10/10). Those got taken out without hesitation. Then, out of nowhere, short covering seems to be the driver for the 11% swing up. Once traders realized that the "short the support breach" wasn't working, volume continued higher on the up move.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105059-five-key-quotes-from-fluor-on-energy-and-commodities?source=feed#comment-301753 301753
Trailing EPS is 3.365, and trades at a forward PE of only 11. FLR seems diversified enough to rebalance their mix of contracts to match whatever opportunities the slowing economy, world-wide, delivers.]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 09:08:46 -0500
Trailing EPS is 3.365, and trades at a forward PE of only 11. FLR seems diversified enough to rebalance their mix of contracts to match whatever opportunities the slowing economy, world-wide, delivers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105024-don-t-let-bulk-shippers-sink-your-portfolio-for-now?source=feed#comment-301670 301670
A better arguement would have been to advise against the shippers with high debt and having trouble paying back the loans. Look at DRYS who just filed to sell 25million shares, on top of the 45mil currently outstanding.]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 08:15:58 -0500
A better arguement would have been to advise against the shippers with high debt and having trouble paying back the loans. Look at DRYS who just filed to sell 25million shares, on top of the 45mil currently outstanding.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103202-the-shallowest-generation?source=feed#comment-297854 297854
Seriously, how much simpler can it be? As you point out, it is infuriating to find out that those of us who made sacrifices to live within our means must now pay for the loose-living, no-discipline lifestyles of others. I consider folks like those who bought houses/cars/TVs they can't afford to be gaming the system. They are hedonists that know the worst that will happen is that those things will be taken away. Now, our government has sent the message that we won't even take them away, we'll help you pay for it.

Crazy. And it's not just the boomers, it's also their children who learned from their parents.]]> Tue, 04 Nov 2008 07:56:34 -0500
Seriously, how much simpler can it be? As you point out, it is infuriating to find out that those of us who made sacrifices to live within our means must now pay for the loose-living, no-discipline lifestyles of others. I consider folks like those who bought houses/cars/TVs they can't afford to be gaming the system. They are hedonists that know the worst that will happen is that those things will be taken away. Now, our government has sent the message that we won't even take them away, we'll help you pay for it.

Crazy. And it's not just the boomers, it's also their children who learned from their parents.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103483-bad-news-for-housing?source=feed#comment-296785 296785 I respect your opinion, but you haven't presented a whole ton of data to back it up. Just because 20% of home mortgages may be underwater, that doesn't say much about the market's expectations for a recovery. The truth is that many of those homes are hurting because the mortgages were too big to begin with. If you only put 5% or less down on a house, and buy it at the peak or near, you can expect to be underwater at some point.

From a technical standpoint, I think the home builders are at the bottom, and should be bought. During the last housing downturn, the residential construction stocks peaked 20 months before the S&P 500 (1998 vs. 2000). This time, the difference is 27 months, between mid-2005 and October 2007.

In 2000, the home builders bottomed and stabilized just as the general market was peaking. In 2007, the same group bottomed near the market peak, and has pretty much traded sideways since then, vs. a market down over 40%.

I don't know if we are allowed to post links here, but I did analysis on this group twice already this year:

www.rsinvestor.com/Hom...
www.rsinvestor.com/Hom...

Good luck,
RSInvestor
]]> Sun, 02 Nov 2008 22:52:32 -0500 I respect your opinion, but you haven't presented a whole ton of data to back it up. Just because 20% of home mortgages may be underwater, that doesn't say much about the market's expectations for a recovery. The truth is that many of those homes are hurting because the mortgages were too big to begin with. If you only put 5% or less down on a house, and buy it at the peak or near, you can expect to be underwater at some point.

From a technical standpoint, I think the home builders are at the bottom, and should be bought. During the last housing downturn, the residential construction stocks peaked 20 months before the S&P 500 (1998 vs. 2000). This time, the difference is 27 months, between mid-2005 and October 2007.

In 2000, the home builders bottomed and stabilized just as the general market was peaking. In 2007, the same group bottomed near the market peak, and has pretty much traded sideways since then, vs. a market down over 40%.

I don't know if we are allowed to post links here, but I did analysis on this group twice already this year:

www.rsinvestor.com/Hom...
www.rsinvestor.com/Hom...

Good luck,
RSInvestor
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103347-things-could-be-worse?source=feed#comment-296064 296064
I think inflation is a foregone conclusion. Just how bad it will be is anyone's guess. ]]> Sun, 02 Nov 2008 02:17:26 -0500
I think inflation is a foregone conclusion. Just how bad it will be is anyone's guess. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103347-things-could-be-worse?source=feed#comment-295584 295584
During the Great Depression, protectionism was mandated from the highest levels of government by tariffs to protect local producers. We have nothing like that now. In fact, major economies are coordinating efforts to avoid just that scenario. Give us credit for learning from some of the mistakes of the past.

This is a global contraction, nothing more. Just today the US produced it's first negative GDP figure of this cycle, yet the media have been screaming "recession" for over a year now. China is still growing at almost 10%, Brazil at 6%. The world ecomomies are slowing, but not dissappearing. Bubbles burst, but life goes on. The world still needs goods and services, and the US is still best prepared to provide them.

Dan]]> Sat, 01 Nov 2008 00:44:19 -0400
During the Great Depression, protectionism was mandated from the highest levels of government by tariffs to protect local producers. We have nothing like that now. In fact, major economies are coordinating efforts to avoid just that scenario. Give us credit for learning from some of the mistakes of the past.

This is a global contraction, nothing more. Just today the US produced it's first negative GDP figure of this cycle, yet the media have been screaming "recession" for over a year now. China is still growing at almost 10%, Brazil at 6%. The world ecomomies are slowing, but not dissappearing. Bubbles burst, but life goes on. The world still needs goods and services, and the US is still best prepared to provide them.

Dan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98933-mosaic-misses-earnings-and-brings-down-the-sector?source=feed#comment-276427 276427 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 22:50:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/73724-u-s-sector-p-e-ratios?source=feed#comment-156033 156033
My thesis is based on the fact that their cost of money, Federal Funds rate and bond rates, are very low. Meanwhile, consumer interest rates have not dropped at all. A 30 year mortgage is the same today as it was 12 months ago, when the Funds rate was 300 basis points higher. This has to widen margins for banks still lending money.

On a price/book basis, the financials are attractive. I do agree, though, that strictly looking at earnings, financials are toxic.]]> Thu, 24 Apr 2008 14:15:48 -0400
My thesis is based on the fact that their cost of money, Federal Funds rate and bond rates, are very low. Meanwhile, consumer interest rates have not dropped at all. A 30 year mortgage is the same today as it was 12 months ago, when the Funds rate was 300 basis points higher. This has to widen margins for banks still lending money.

On a price/book basis, the financials are attractive. I do agree, though, that strictly looking at earnings, financials are toxic.]]>