mlyn

Ultra Short Treasury ETF: Have Patience, Money Will Eventually Flow Again

But one cannot compare the Japanese deflationary period to the U.S. dollar when the latter is the international reserve currency for trading, prices commodities, sophisticated Wall St markets and SEC regulation and so forth.
That's why treasuries are so overbought. It's truly another "Mad-off"-with- the-money scam.

But when the U.S. dollar becomes suspect as a true "safe haven," where will investors go if they begin to suspect all fiat currencies?

As a separate issue, I agree that the quantitative easing might make TBT a problematic shorting strategy for now. The U.S. dollar is going to sink, but no one can predict the timing.


On Dec 23 08:36 PM Dan Weiss wrote:

> In the short-term Treasuries could actually continue to rally. Economic
> conditions will remain poor through at least much of next year and
> the Federal Reserve's new policy is quantitative easing through the
> purchase of these bonds which would be shorted in these instruments.
> Keep in mind in Japan that the 10-year rates fell below 1% so anything
> is possible. Long term, I agree with the author 100% that Treasuries
> are overvalued but they can be propped up for a long time by the
> Government.