mudslinger

Will XM Shares Still Exist on Monday?

I love these stocks! Bad news they go down! No news they go down! Good news they go WAY down! Price targets out there of $4, 4.50 etc. and nobody is interested in buying these stocks on great news and what seems to me to be a pretty positive earnings release...revenues up 25%, subs up, loss down. Any theories? Is this buy the rumor sell the news? Is this fear of dilutive refinancing? Are the Merrill Lynch, Citi and other bullish analysts just considered to be ignorant fools with no credibility? Are these companies closer to bankruptcy than we think? IS THERE ANYTHING THAT CAN MAKE THESE STOCKS MOVE UP?

Why Did Adelstein Reverse His Position on the SIRI-XM Merger?

It really is frustrating that upgrades have absolutely no impact and downgrades accelerate the stocks decline. This wasn't even a terrible downgrade...it was to hold from buy...wasn't a sell rating like GS. How low will we go? Back to 1.85? Is there ANYTHING that can move these stocks higher?

FCC Commissioner Copps Votes "No" to Radio Merger: No Surprise

Stocks have moved up...arb spread STILL at 20%??!! WTF?!

FCC Commissioner Copps Votes "No" to Radio Merger: No Surprise

163888...I hear you, so people can't actually make the Short Siri/Long XM true arb play, but wouldn't people at least be bidding up the price of xm to close the gap? That 14% gap would seem to indicate that there's still a lot of doubt about this deal going through on favorable terms...Adelstein's statement removed that doubt for me. You?

FCC Commissioner Copps Votes "No" to Radio Merger: No Surprise

Maybe I really am wearing rose-colored glasses, but it seems to me:

1. Fines and an oversight committee....no problem.
2. Open access....no problem.
3. I see 10% to 12% max on the spectrum set asides...no problem
4. 3 year price cap, no problem....maybe 4 to make Deb look strong...not thrilled about 4 but it's not THAT big a deal

This would be consistent with the "window dressing" Adelturd is complaining about. Given these conditions, this looks like a favorable outcome. I can't believe the companies would have let Adelturd go if they weren't sure they could get a favorable outcome from Tate...so again, this deal is a virtual lock right?

So I'm surprised we aren't seeing better price action...

FCC Commissioner Copps Votes "No" to Radio Merger: No Surprise

Why is the arb spread still 14%? The quote from Adelstein and 163888's "common sense" tells me this deal is a virtual lock. Why is Siri DOWN .08? Killer...with xm still 14% below the deal price I would think now is the time to buy more xm if you intend to.

XM's Pre-Announced Q2 Results May Hold Merger Clues

So Copps has voted no...does anyone remember if this third vote starts the 10 day clock (it would actually start next Monday)...or does it have to be 3 votes on the same side (i.e. 3 yes's or 3 no's) to start the clock?

Sirius-XM Merger Decision Delay Is Unacceptable

Dave, that is almost unanswerable at present. The answer will depend on what the business model and financial metrics are perceived to look like after this merger is approved or denied. I think there is little doubt that there will be several changes necessary to any DCF model including new revenue streams, new subscriber acquisition and churn metrics, new ARPU models, expected expense synergies etc. That is the reason people continue to hold this stock...they believe in the POTENTIAL offered by a merged company to dramatically alter the financial model within a few years that would give you a drastically different answer then you would get using the information at hand today.

Georgetown Partners' Latest Radio Proposal Raises Many Questions

shure46....Your 11:52 post shows a dangerous lack of awareness on your part (dangerous to you). And before I go into detail, note that I am also long both siri and xm. While your position MIGHT be true with respect to well-diversified investments in the broad equity markets over a long time horizon, it is certainly NOT TRUE with respect to ANY individual stock over ANY time horizon, much less an investment in these speculative companies. There is a very real possibility that these stocks may never recover their past market caps. Bankruptcy (and therefore a $0 value) is a real possibility (see Bear Stearns, although it was actually bought out on the cheap to prevent bankruptcy)....another possibility is that their stock prices stay roughly where they are now for years...in that case while you "think" you would be avoiding making your loss real your brokerage statement will show you the "real" value of your investments; further, you will probably miss many other/better investment opportunities while you wait which costs you even more money.

Bottom line: The price of a stock when you are considering buying it IS important. Buying too high will hurt you just as much as selling too low. And further, when evaluating the merits of a stock you currently hold, the price that you bought it is IRRELEVANT (except for tax considerations). Either you believe the stock has a high probability of appreciation (and a good risk/reward ratio) or you don't...the price you paid for that stock has NO BEARING on that analysis.

Sorry to be negative, but I think accepting these facts will help you in the long run.

Now...let's get back to waiting on the FCC...I'm sure the vote will come any minute now....yeah right.

Sirius: Post-Merger Guidance

No updates to the fcc list of record documents since last Thursday after daily updates all of June? Sirius issues guidance on a post merger company after not saying a word for 16 months? Yes Vicar, I am biased and possibly delusional but I don't believe Sirius would suddenly issue guidance just for the hell of it. And I also don't believe they decided to try to appease anyone after 16 months of not doing so. I think they know something...I think they have the votes....and I think we are just waiting on the 1 or 2 dissenting votes to be cast. Call me a dreamer...

Where’s the Bottom for Satellite Radio Stocks?

Shouldn't this qualify as good news? The market doesn't seem to care. Was this part of the "putable" debt they need to refi? The article indicates the interest rate was 1.75% and will now be 10%...is that right?

Where’s the Bottom for Satellite Radio Stocks?

Vicar...do you not allow for the fact that there is a (difficult to quantify) value attributable to the POTENTIAL of a merged company? That given its position in the market and a technology that most users love along with expense and revenue synergies that they could significantly alter the look of your current DCF? Or perhaps look attractive to a MSFT, AAPL or GOOG as some have speculated? Asking seriously...

Where’s the Bottom for Satellite Radio Stocks?

Agreed Bradley...not sure about the $1.50 but I agree with the rest. The long hoped for merger pop will not happen...merger is already expected and therefore mostly priced in. I think there will be a small move followed by selling from disappointed shareholders that had been hoping for more. Do you realize even $2.50 would equal a 35% gain from where we are now... I think even that is too optimistic. Would love to be wrong.

Cowen Slams Goldman on Radio Stocks Analysis

163888...Thanks for the response. I've been around, lurking in the background taking all this in. Dave from Barron's is a tool...and I think 202507 is Patrick Rodgers from Orbitcast threads (if not, those two should get together and party).

I agree that the concessions Martin has recommended indicates that he truly is in favor of this deal....BUT: I still believe he shares in the blame for this taking so long. It's outrageous that it has taken this long and he is the one who ultimately controls the process. While approval would be great, the delay he has fostered has cost these companies (and our investments) tremendously.

Finally, I laughed too when I saw Killer's note above (not making fun of you Killer, just the situation)....think we can get to 2.50? 2.25? Was it just a month ago people thought we'd see $4 to $5 on approval? The wind is definitely out of my short-term sails...while I hope I'm wrong, I can't imagine anything higher than $2.50 until late this year as the positive effects of the merger begin to materialize. It's incredible that the GS analysis seems to have had so much influence, but the other bullish analyst opinions had no impact whatsoever.

202507...on the one hand I feel your pain, this whole thing has been incredibly frustrating and financially destructive...on the other hand if you bought because you THOUGHT Tyler had a sizable long position, then you have nobody but yourself to blame. Any research of Tyler's articles and website would have told you the same things he disclosed above...not to mention buying because you think a blogger has a large position is ridiculous.

Tyler...add me to the long list of people who appreciate the articles you've written and the information you've put out there for us.

Cowen Slams Goldman on Radio Stocks Analysis

Tyler? Anyone? If Tate and McDowell vote to approve (and yes, I realize that is still an IF), will we hear their votes immediately or will we have to wait 10 days for the other two votes to be cast as well?