Vladimir Senkov

$59 Billion Dubai Debt Default Could Have Much Wider Implications

>Investor perception of stock market risk has just hit a five-year low in the United States

Peter,
I'd love to know how you figured this out.
VIX certainly isn't at a five year low. It's not even at the two year low.
Dubai isn't news. If anything, it's an excuse. A lot of folks have been expecting a correction and some who clearly missed the rally even warned to expect march lows again.
This type of sentiment is what real contrarians shoulw be picking up on I don't believe it is subsiding just yet. There are still a lot of bears out there. Before any real crash is to come, they need to first be converted into bulls, just like they were converted into bears at the end of last year on in march this year. Until then we may see a few down days here and there and probably sideways to slightly down market for the rest of the year, but come January i'm expecting another run. Why? Because many managers and traders are done with this years' quotas, plans, etc and are sitting on the sidelines for now, but come next year they'll need to make next years quotas and the easiest way to do that is: don't fight the fed and go with the flow. It's not their money anyway so why should they stick their neck out? They're much more likely to go with the program.

So Much for the Decoupling...

"rate cuts work" will be another one of those soon.