Vladimir Senkov

Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook

I was always wondering who makes US economy contract and Chinese economy expand. Now you finally explained this. It's JPM and GS. Wow! and i mean, WOW!
You know why i love markets? In many disciplines you can argue your entire life and never know if you were right or wrong about your hypothesis. Thankfully, market is sort of a universal "prove me wrong" machine. So i'm having a tough time understanding why one would want to continuously call Shenanigans. If one is convinced that his point of view is ultimately correct, why would one tell anybody? One would just keep it quiet and make more bets.
Let's take a look at your FRE bet. Why are you pulling out of it if you're right? If you're wrong, would you tell us how you came to understand that?
The reality is, you argue about macro stuff for the sake of the argument, it has little to do with your trading, i mean gambling. It's just smoke and mirrors. You went ahead and gambled on FRE options because your arguments empowered you to think that you have some sort of an edge against the market, that you are superior to it, that you understand something others dont. Then you either have to pull out without a good explanation (why look back anyways, sunk cost, it just became too risky) or you have to call Shenanigans or perhaps you got lucky and won. Either way this empowers you for the next round of arguments.
Is arguing improving your trades? I doubt it.
Is it entertaining? Initially. It quickly gets old, unfortunately. I think you may need more cartoons!