Vladimir Senkov

China: Exactly Where Japan Was in the 1980s?

On Aug 23 10:23 PM Jolly_Rancher wrote:

> Yes, you hit the main points to contradict the article. But the main
> point to contradict your comment is that the Chinese government
> is not stable. They are creating a mess and therefore in for much
> pain, just not the kind of pain Japan is going through -- somewhat
> more intense short term pain.

Mess is a relative term. What happened in USSR when it attempted to transition from a planned economy (although not well planned) to a market one, that was a real mess and still is, btw. Chinese are doing much better, in my opinion.
You have to remember it's incredibly difficult to transition from a communist police state to an open society. It can't be done overnight, it will take a long time and it won't be done perfectly. And nobody can teach the Chinese how to do it. They'll have to do it on their own and then maybe they could teach others how to do it.

There is truth to what you are saying, but let's look at our own fiscal policies. China don't look all that crazy now does it?

China: Exactly Where Japan Was in the 1980s?

Vitaly,
While I agree with several points you made and China is by no means "perfect", there are huge differences between China and Japan, so I have to disagree with your conclusions.

It's going to take a long time to compare China to Japan in any reasonable level of detail, but 50000ft view is:

Japan: imports substantially all commodities that it consumes.
China: has natural resources of its own

Japan: expensive labor
China: plenty of cheap labor

Japan: limited geographically
China: plenty of space to grow

Japan: limited militarily, must rely on the US to trade
China: has means to control seas and ports that it needs to control in order to trade

Shanghai Market Surges 9.3% on Stamp Tax Cut

can you drop an f bomb here? i guess you can :)

Book Review: Jim Rogers' "A Bull in China"

Shaun,

Sorry for double posting, i thought it hung.

Anyways, I forgot to mention that from some of your comments about motorcycle trip, etc. it seems like your understanding of Rogers is a bit dated. Have you actually read the latest book? Have you actually listened to his latest interviews? Doesn't he actually live and work in HK now?
That's not exactly "an occasional trip" now is it?

You say retail investor can't do this retail investor can't do that. I disagree. Retail investor can easily get exposure to both A/B and H via CAF or FXI. Retail investor can easily get exposure to commodities. Retail investor apparently can even get a bank account in RMB now. Retail investor can easily get exposure to the yen. I think it is a very poor excuse to say that what Rogers says isn't doable if you don't listen to what he says. He made very specific references in several interviews and he keeps saying basically the same things over and over: 1) get exposure to commodities 2) get out of USD denominated assets 3) get exposure to yen. that's about all he says and all of it is very easily doable by anyone. If you need him to tell you how to do this specifically i think you have incorrect expectations.

Book Review: Jim Rogers' "A Bull in China"

Shaun, did you listen to his recent interview where he mentioned EverBank? www.everbank.com/001Wo...
I don't know HOW they do it and IF it really works and I haven't tried it myself, but according to their website (and Rogers who also says that he hasn't used it himself) one can open an account in RMB. I would if it paid interest, but it seems like it does not.
Guys, you can say what you want about Rogers but he is not a trader nor a liar. He is a very special guy who enjoys life, travels the worls, enjoys writing books about himself and his experiences and you should all learn from him if you can. He may be right or wrong from traders' point of view, but again you have to remember that he is a self made individual and he didn't make his money by bribing policy makers. I don't know about you, but I respect that.

Book Review: Jim Rogers' "A Bull in China"

Shaun, did you listen to his recent interview where he mentioned EverBank? www.everbank.com/001Wo...
I don't know HOW they do it and IF it really works and I haven't tried it myself, but according to their website (and Rogers who also says that he hasn't used it himself) one can open an account in RMB. I would if it paid interest, but it seems like it does not.
Guys, you can say what you want about Rogers but he is not a trader nor a liar. He is a very special guy who enjoys life, travels the worls, enjoys writing books about himself and his experiences and you should all learn from him if you can. He may be right or wrong from traders' point of view, but again you have to remember that he is a self made individual and he didn't make his money by bribing policy makers. I don't know about you, but I respect that.