You can add as an impetus to sales (if approved whether ARNA or VVUS), doctors who would rather treat obesity first rather than, cholesterol, high blood pressure, diabetes and any other of a host of ailments that are currently driving up health care costs as a result of the large and growing obesity problem in health care. The FDA and the medical profession (& congress who last year told the FDA to report back to them this past March on progress towards an obesity drug) all view obesity as a much larger and growing problem in healthcare than they have in the past, so interest and support for getting drugs like Lorc & Qnexa to market is much higher now than it has been in the past.
Looking at eTrade, the latest figures they show are institutional ownership at 67%. Not clear if those are March or June numbers, my recollection was the March numbers were 70, so this could be more current than March. W/ that level of ownership, it's the institutions who will have to decide they want out in order to have the largest impact on the stock. The often considered polarizing AdamF noted in a tweet that there is nothing new in the CItron report. A search on - Vivus Shank patent - shows that this has been discussed on the record at investor conferences for some time. It came up this past April at a Needham conference, a Yahoo posting today has JP Morgan analyst saying nothing new and reiterating Market Outperform, a Yahoo posting from back in 2010 before the 1st rejection had JMP Securities saying they weren't concerned w/ the Plank patent based on what their IP consultant told them, it was also addressed in a May 2006 analyst day briefing by Vivus and this is just what I found, so I woudn't be surprised that it has been talked about at more investor conferences where the institutions were present. And knowing about the Plank patent, institutions which are in a position to get independent opinions from their own IP consultants and attorneys still hold a high percentage of VVUS.
JNJ is in the business to make money, I haven't seen anything that says they are or look to be a direct competitor in this segment w/ Vivus. Even w/ their deep pockets, they would have to decide why they would want to try to pursue anything based on the Plank patent. The only motivation I can think of is if they believed Vivus could generate a significant revenue stream and they wanted some of it, whether that would be an exclusive topiramax supplier agreement to Vivus, a stronger position to buy Vivus, or a royalty agreement, none of which would warrant all out IP litigation to try to damage or destroy Vivus (as you would a direct competitor), but rather a negotiation from a leveraged position, a dead goose won't continue to lay Golden Eggs and give an ROI on your IP litigation investment.
As this plays out we'll see if the institutional holders throw in the towel or stick w/ it, and if JNJ comes at Vivus guns blazing or does nothing or something in between.
As for MDs prescribing off-label doses of topiramate and phentermine, or insurance payors intervening, the discussions I'm seeing (like in the Vivus conf call) are that while that will likely happen to an extent, anyone doing that is now shouldering any liability themselves and as opposed to having a drug company as a co-defendant or a primary target in the case of patient litigation, and some insurance companies may restrict MDs they cover from engaging in this practice. When a Dr's liability is on the line, there isn't much motivation for the Dr to prescribe a lower cost off-label alternative to their patient.
Arena Gets Highly Anticipated DEA Scheduling Decision [View article]
The problem of big government is not limited to being oversize and expensive, it is also burdensome regulations and poor regulatory processes. There are any number of better ways to do this process. One would be to start the 75day scheduling at FDA approval and give the DEA the abillity to over rule later. As it is all they did was agree w/ the classification that has some pretty clear classification guidelines. As a result, the DEA has taken away 6 months of potential revenues from Arena w/ this delay. Which also means, during this time Arena would have frozen certain hiring reqs until they can get thru scheduling. Now multiply that across all the regulations in the government and all the private sector businesses that are effected and the impact to the economy in costs and jobs at a time when the Fed will soon have bought $4T in bonds to keep interest rates low in spite of the US Gov flooding the bond market. So the Fed ends up fighting our own government in an attempt to keep interst rates low, and fighting regulatory agencies in an attempt to grow the economy and reduce unemployment. Tell us again how great this 6mo delay by the DEA was again, after all they were doing their job, that's swell.
Vivus Still Needs The Help Of A Big Pharma Partner, Say Cowen's Analysts [View article]
Those are monthly growth rates of 44% and 67% respectively. If it can maintain a 50% monthly growth rate for 12 months, and that is a ridiculously optimistic IF I'll concede, 50% monthly growth to the 12th power is a multiplier of 130. The point is we are in a rapid growth stage and the numbers can grow pretty quickly, so now we wait to see how far and how fast before growth rates slow.
Vivus (VVUS) -6.2% premarket after Jefferies downgrades shares to Underperform, citing generic competition. While investors have been concerned about patents for the weight-loss drug Qsymia, the firm thinks doctors may choose to prescribe generics since branded Qsymia is unlikely to be covered by payors and the two generics will be more affordable for patients. [View news story]
Another question would be how are the Drs insurance policies T's & C's written, would doing what is described by Jefferies invalidate the policy coverage or in anyway transfer any amount of the liability from the insurance company back to the Dr.
SBUX is certainly richly valued. There are multiple positives in it's business (greater minds than mine can determine if rich value is justified). They raised prices when coffee prices went up, and are benefiting from the drop in coffee prices (haven't seen any announcements of SBUX cutting prices and don't expect any), it will be interesting to see if their single serve espresso/latte machine (Verismo) will be a hot seller for it's Xmas season release, they are moving more aggressively into India w/ the changes that country has recently made making its retail oultets market more open to foreign companies, and growth in China is also a big part of their strategy.
Arena Pharmaceutical (ARNA +1.4%) trades in the green today after earlier disclosing the price for a 60-day supply of Belviq 10-mg tablets at $199.50. This compares with Vivus' (VVUS +1%) Qsymia, which retails for $160 per month at a medium dose and $220 per month for the higher dose. Analysts note the success of Belviq will largely depend on lower co-payments and broader insurance coverage, which could come in the next two years. [View news story]
Just for clarification, if you read the 8-k, $199.50 is the price that Esai will pay to Arena. Esai will then re-sell it to the pharmacy who will in turn resell it to the patient.
What's Really Moving Arena Pharmaceutical And What You Should Pay For It Right Now [View article]
The CNBC 2010 top 10 link was especially helpful for sanity checking future revenue estimates and what-ifs calculated based on total available market penetration.
Sell Arena Pharmaceuticals And Step To The Sidelines [View article]
Don't forget taxes. The problem w/ taking profits just to try to buy back in at a lower level is unless the price falls below what the taxes take you to, you've just churned your account and not improved your position. Especially tough to do if the capital gains are short term and your tax bracket is 20% or even 30%plus. It wasn't that long ago this stock was below $2/share, thats alot of short term cap gain and alot of taxes.
Though I'm not real big on the federal gov't getting into things that the private sector should be handling, in this case we have a significant national security issue. Unfortunately, we are enriching the Middle East, and along w/ their oil they are also exporting their societal problems by way of terrorism. I have to believe the mothers (and dads) here in the US, while proud to have their adult children serve in the military, do not want to see them go die on the battlefields of the Middle East while we fund our side w/ taxes and also fund our enemies from the gas pump. Unfortunately, unrest in that part of the world causes economic problems for the rest of the world. And while Afghanistan is not an oil producing country, the money to pay for Al-Quaida largely came from citizens of oil producing countries, as do many of Al-Quaida's members.
Look at the genocide that happened in Rwanda in the '90s. While it was a horrific humanitarian event, it had no impact on the US or world economy. Wouldn't it be nice for a change if unrest in the Middle East also had no impact on the US or world economy.
Today's Market News To Trade On: Markets Marching Higher [View article]
According to the TWER 2011 annual report filed this month, TWER had 1200 nodes (WiFi antennas) in operation as of 12/31/11. On the call the CEO talked about adding 3000 more nodes over the next 12 months w/ locations being guided by future large carrier customers.
Today's Market News To Trade On: Markets Marching Higher [View article]
You missed the real news on Towerstream (TWER). The move had nothing to do w/ earnings. On the call the CEO said they are anticipating closing multiple long awaited deals w/ big carriers and cable companies sooner rather than later. The first announcements coming in weeks and possibly days.
Arena: Bears Have It All Wrong [View article]
Vivus Vs. Citron, Buy Vivus [View article]
JNJ is in the business to make money, I haven't seen anything that says they are or look to be a direct competitor in this segment w/ Vivus. Even w/ their deep pockets, they would have to decide why they would want to try to pursue anything based on the Plank patent. The only motivation I can think of is if they believed Vivus could generate a significant revenue stream and they wanted some of it, whether that would be an exclusive topiramax supplier agreement to Vivus, a stronger position to buy Vivus, or a royalty agreement, none of which would warrant all out IP litigation to try to damage or destroy Vivus (as you would a direct competitor), but rather a negotiation from a leveraged position, a dead goose won't continue to lay Golden Eggs and give an ROI on your IP litigation investment.
As this plays out we'll see if the institutional holders throw in the towel or stick w/ it, and if JNJ comes at Vivus guns blazing or does nothing or something in between.
As for MDs prescribing off-label doses of topiramate and phentermine, or insurance payors intervening, the discussions I'm seeing (like in the Vivus conf call) are that while that will likely happen to an extent, anyone doing that is now shouldering any liability themselves and as opposed to having a drug company as a co-defendant or a primary target in the case of patient litigation, and some insurance companies may restrict MDs they cover from engaging in this practice. When a Dr's liability is on the line, there isn't much motivation for the Dr to prescribe a lower cost off-label alternative to their patient.
Arena Gets Highly Anticipated DEA Scheduling Decision [View article]
Vivus Still Needs The Help Of A Big Pharma Partner, Say Cowen's Analysts [View article]
Vivus (VVUS) -6.2% premarket after Jefferies downgrades shares to Underperform, citing generic competition. While investors have been concerned about patents for the weight-loss drug Qsymia, the firm thinks doctors may choose to prescribe generics since branded Qsymia is unlikely to be covered by payors and the two generics will be more affordable for patients. [View news story]
Valuation-Based Contrarian Picks [View article]
Arena Pharmaceutical (ARNA +1.4%) trades in the green today after earlier disclosing the price for a 60-day supply of Belviq 10-mg tablets at $199.50. This compares with Vivus' (VVUS +1%) Qsymia, which retails for $160 per month at a medium dose and $220 per month for the higher dose. Analysts note the success of Belviq will largely depend on lower co-payments and broader insurance coverage, which could come in the next two years. [View news story]
Use Options To Manage Risk/Reward In Arena Ahead Of Today's FDA Decision [View article]
What's Really Moving Arena Pharmaceutical And What You Should Pay For It Right Now [View article]
Sell Arena Pharmaceuticals And Step To The Sidelines [View article]
FDA Obesity Drug Decisions On June 27 And July 17 Will Affect These Stocks [View article]
Another Setback For Natural Gas? [View article]
Look at the genocide that happened in Rwanda in the '90s. While it was a horrific humanitarian event, it had no impact on the US or world economy. Wouldn't it be nice for a change if unrest in the Middle East also had no impact on the US or world economy.
Today's Market News To Trade On: Markets Marching Higher [View article]
Today's Market News To Trade On: Markets Marching Higher [View article]