adenovir

Spectrum: FDA News on Zevalin Equals an Approval

The only question is how long will it take for the approval to happen. 6 months, 60 days, or something much quicker?

The Limits of Economic Policy

When Obama took office he talked down the economy for some time because the didn't want to be held responsible for the severe credit recession that he inherited. Right wing blowhards like Larry Kudlow bloviated that he was too negative and that he should stop being so pessimistic.

After a while, Obama started to be a bit more optimistic to avoid being labeled a doom'er and gloom'er by the Kudlows of the world.

Obviously, our economy remains in the toilet. Obama knows it but also knows that a little hope can go a long way. The only recovery that we've seen is a bit of stimulus, massive govt guarantees on credit to keep things moving a bit and a maxing out of the rate of decline (terminal velocity).

Biden, with his chronic foot-in-mouth disease was trying his best to explain the strategy that they have pursued.

Bottom line: there has a been a lot of talk, a little action and we continue to slide. Nothing anyone can do will make a huge difference at this point, the only hope is to spin it so that the blame doesn't get pinned on you.


On Jul 06 07:08 AM Michael Young wrote:

> "Vice President, Biden, misread the economy". Too true but also,
> I misread how intelligent the kings of Wall Street were. I knew the
> box-tickers in government were pretty stupid, That's a given. But
> I thought there was enough intellectual substance in Wall Street
> (and London etc) to avoid a systematic collapse in the financial
> and banking sector.
>
> I am as guilty as Joe Biden. He knew the economy as well as I understood
> Wall Street's level of intelligence - not well enough.
>
> I humbly suggest I am not alone.

FDA Calendar: 18 Hot Summer Trades

Good list. So far, this has been one of the best years for FDA investing. Buying in advance of the date and selling before the decision into the run-up has worked quite well. You've got to get out before the co. does a secondary offering, though.

Bill Gross on Staying Rich as U.S. Fortunes Decline

Bill Gross is talking his book again. Is that his high school picture?

Extending Medicare: Medical and National Suicide

Simon Says "First, basic common sense would tell us that if facing a funding problem so huge it can destroy the economy, it would be best to make sure it is brought back under control before adding fuel to the fire."

Do you think that all the "charity care" currently being provided by hospitals and doctors to the uninsured/underinsured is free? Who do you think is paying for that?

We are all paying for it indirectly through higher fees when we seek care. Wonder why it costs a quarter of million for a hip replacement? You are paying for your hip and the hip of someone else who is uninsured.

We need mandatory basic coverage for all Americans. Let's get the hidden costs of charity care on the table. That's the only way we're going to control health care costs.

We already do the same thing with auto insurance. Why should health care be any different. If someone "saves" money by not getting health insurance, they are stealing your money when they go the ER for care and don't pay.

Protectionism by Any Other Name

We will all inflate our currencies because inflation is much more palatable politically than deflation.

Orwellian Finance: Is 1984 Happening in 2009?

While many of the facts in the article ring true, the part about "The Party" seems to be a stretch. The real power is held by the entities (financial firms) that have become too big to fail and their ally the Federal Reserve. The government allowed these entities to grow to their current size, but now is helpless to do much about them. Neither party has the answer to these problems.

Obama's Windfall Profits Proposal Is Dangerous

I completely agree that any tax on "windfall profits" is a mistake and I hope the American people see it for what it is, a bribe. Neither party has the answers to our economic problems. The hard choices that we face will continue to be put off until the future due to political pressures on both sides.

The only tax policy that will help our energy problem is to raise taxes that the consumer pays for energy. This will reduce use and encourage conservation. Of course, no politician who wants to keep their job will propose this.

buyitcheap - where did you find that tax proposal for taxing dividends in an IRA/401K?

Oil Bubble Breaking? Barron's Outlines the Case, But the Argument is Weak

Mr. Levy outlines 10 reasons why he would like the price of oil to be cheaper. Wouldn't we all?

What if we forced oil companies to sell gas at prices reflecting $40-$80/barrel oil as he suggests?

They would shut their doors and then we would see shortages like we've never seen before. Why would they want to pay $100+/barrel and sell at less than cost. They would open up stores in China and India and sell there instead.

In fact, that's what's happening. Even without price controls, Exxon-Mobil has decided that selling gas in this country is not a worthwhile endeavor. They are in the process of closing their stations.

People are always looking for a scapegoat when things aren't going well. Why not blame the "evil speculators"?

Every crude oil futures contract that is bought by a speculator will expire. When it expires, someone will have to pay cash and take delivery of the oil the contract controls. I don't know of any speculators that have been hoarding oil in their basement that they bought with a futures contract. The only parties taking delivery are the refiners who can actually use the stuff. If they went on a buying strike, that would drive the price down, but since we (as a country and the world) continue to demand their refined products at ever increasing rates, they will continue to pay whatever they need to pay to get their crude oil.

The bottom line is that we are producing oil as fast as we can and demand is pushing the limits of the supply, driving up prices. The price may fluctuate in the short term due to traders, but the only way to get a real reduction in the price of oil is to increase supply or reduce demand.

Discovery Labs: Panic at the DSCO

I'd like to correct one error in your article...the meeting with the FDA is on June 18th, not the 15th. Still prior to options expiration, but much closer. That could keep the implied volatility up until then.

As far as the drug goes, I think it's very unlikely that anything significant will happen until after options expiration in June. Most likely we will get a class 1 review from the FDA which gives them 60 days to make their decision. That puts it somewhere in August.

This drug will get approved. The efficacy data is convincing, safety issues have been resolved, and manufacturing issues are the last thing to go. Whether DSCO does it on their own, with a partner, or gets bought out is still an open question.

Full disclosure: Long DSCO stock.

Implied Volatility Suggests Financials Risk Is At Six-Month Low

I always thought that when volatility was low, it meant that market participants were complacent. Doesn't that seem like a better setup for a high than a low? It's peaks in the volatility that tend to mark bottoms, not valleys.