madness1089's Comments

Microsoft To Apple: 'Welcome To The Club'

Sun, 19 May 2013 11:20:28 -0400

Big mistake comparing the two. MSFT the poster child of irrational exuberance. AAPL always trading at reasonable valuation and generates 8% of MARKET CAP in profits every - enough to drive big buybacks and take shares higher.

Amazon Earnings Broadly As Expected

Sun, 28 Apr 2013 20:46:11 -0400

Congratulations Paulo. I never thought I'd see the stock sell off on poor earnings guidance. Is AMZN finally going to come to fair value? It might come down quite a bit, but likely still will have some Bezos premium.

The Crazy Thing About The 2008-2009 Stock Market Crash

Sat, 27 Apr 2013 15:06:43 -0400

It seems like most dividend stocks have been run up in the recent rally. I'm uncomfortable paying over 17x with the exception of MCD.

What are the dividend stocks on sale besides BP and AAPL

Apple (AAPL): FQ2 EPS of $10.09 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $43.6B (+11% Y/Y) beats by $1.1B. 37.4M iPhones, 19.5M iPads, just under 4M Macs. Expects FQ3 revenue of $33.5B-$35.5B, below $39.3B consensus. Buyback increased by $50B. Shares halted. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR)

Tue, 23 Apr 2013 16:40:54 -0400

They are actually borrowing that 50 B it seems like .

Apple: Is It HP All Over Again?

Mon, 22 Apr 2013 10:51:32 -0400

Whole point of this article is that margins will erode. Apple sells iMac, macbook pro at high margins, and these are old products. Don't see why 30-35%GM + going forward isnt reasonable.

Apple's March Quarter Madness

Fri, 19 Apr 2013 16:37:51 -0400

RPL: This will be the first and last quarter of negative net income growth for the foreseeable future.

No, it wont.

Apple Q2 Earnings Preview: Scrutinizing Negative Media Coverage, And Watching R&D Expenses

Mon, 08 Apr 2013 21:47:19 -0400

Great article agreed Apple has unrivaled fundamentals best of breed on the street. iTV and iWatch could send this stock flying higher when sentiment reverses and EPS growth resumes in the back half of 2013.

1) Emerging market iphone
2) China mobile
3) Dividend increase
4) iTV/iWatch/future product launch

Apple Offers Investors An Annualized Gross Return Of Between 0% And 15% Over The Next 5 Years

Sat, 06 Apr 2013 12:58:55 -0400

A doubling of the yield would bring it to 5%. This would be extraordinarily attractive to mutual fund managers as average S+P pays only 2% on avg and Apple has unrivaled financial strength. This would bring the stock up more than the 10%.

Apple Offers Investors An Annualized Gross Return Of Between 0% And 15% Over The Next 5 Years

Sat, 06 Apr 2013 10:03:47 -0400

Oppy could announce a doubling of the dividend and this whole article would be null in about 4 seconds of aftermarket trading

Apple Could Take Another Beating

Thu, 04 Apr 2013 23:00:33 -0400

Few weeks ago author was claiming the post earnings fall in Apple was not justified. Few weeks ago author was saying GOOG trades at a huge premium to AAPL despite the fact that both will grow at similar rates going foward.

Simple truth is no one knows with certainty what will happen to the share price in the near term. Long term prefer the best of breed fundies of AAPL.

My Upcoming 'Swing For The Fence' Investment

Wed, 03 Apr 2013 13:31:53 -0400

Over time AAPL could be greatest dividend paying stock of all time. Already its 10 BILLION ANNUAL DIVIDEND distribution is greater than almost all companies on S+P 500. Even with such a massive distribution company is still accumulating massive amounts of cash (170BILLION + if payout is not increased). AT <10 PE (<7 when factoring in cash) think this is a great opportunity with most pessimism baked in. Stock could trade a bit lower if guidance disappoints but overall a greater buying opportunity than VISA.

Massive Discounting Hits The Larger Kindle Fire

Mon, 01 Apr 2013 19:40:30 -0400

How long have you been short amazon? How much money have you lost? How much are you willing to lose? Would never dare short a stock the street has fallen in love with.

3 Important Lessons From Apple's Fall In Stock Price

Sat, 16 Mar 2013 19:42:46 -0400

1) A bit sexist assuming the BC subscribers were all male...

2) Long term confidence in the apple story has not been swayed by this or any other negative story on the name. Increased friendliness to shareholders through buybacks and dividend raises, a deal with china mobile, the release of an emerging market iphone, and a full fledged apple television set are the catalysts that will bring the street back to the name. Longer term we think with shareholder friendly policies this company trades at a multiple similar to other legendary consumer brand names ala PG KO MCD even if EPS declines and stabilizes at 40.

Apple: Do You Hear The Crickets?

Sat, 16 Mar 2013 19:28:24 -0400

"Apple (AAPL), which was destined to be a $1,000 stock in many minds (not mine), has fallen from its $705 high to $443.66 at Friday's close"

On Feb 15, 2012 Maurer wrote an article entitled: 5 Stocks: Who Wins The Race to 1000. Apple was mentioned first in the article.

He certainly believed it could happen at one point, citing in the article that 1)Apple had plenty of growth in the future
2)buybacks, dividends, etc. could take it higher

Apple: Learn From Andy Zaky's Mistake

Thu, 07 Mar 2013 20:56:21 -0500

AAPL achieving solid revenue growth ultimately this reaches the bottom line with EPS growth resuming in back half of 2013 with expansion of iphone sku (emerging markets product). Longer term think AAPLs margins may stabilize at 35% but earnings growth can continued to be delivered with an increase in absolute gross margin dollars. Overall believe the weakness has been priced into shares here though fear is very powerful and anything but a stellar q2 earnings report could send shares lower.

I Took Profits On Google, Should You?

Thu, 07 Mar 2013 20:47:48 -0500

Agreed. Longer term much rather own AAPL - superior fundamentals. Herd has moved into goog and has stretched the valuation significantly. Would consider at a good discount below intrinsic value of 650- momentum very positvely in favor of GOOG at the moment. Would not be surprised if it sees 4 digits first.

I Took Profits On Google, Should You?

Thu, 07 Mar 2013 20:40:48 -0500

This is despite earnings growth of 25% with expected earnings growth of less than 16%.

Fix please.

Apple's Revenue By Region: There's More To The Company's Story

Sun, 24 Feb 2013 09:50:34 -0500

Are you maintaining your price target RPL?

Morgan Stanley's Ever-Changing Amazon.com Bullish Story

Thu, 14 Feb 2013 16:56:40 -0500

Paulo if you keep shorting amazon, eventually you wont even have a computer left to post these articles. Would never dare short a stock the street has fallen in love with no matter how far it has deviated from the fundamentals.

Apple's China Growth Not As Strong As It Appears

Tue, 29 Jan 2013 12:49:06 -0500

When Tim cook said China is apples most important market, he meant every word of it. When apple said it grew 67% YOY in China, it means that Apple grew 67% YOY in china. We dont need a faulty analysis calculating growth of the iphone 4 and 4s given that a lot of the Chinese consumers buy the latest and greatest products. Next quarter YOY growth will be very high in China given that the iphone 5 was available only for the final stretch of last quarter.

Apple Last-Minute Forecast

Wed, 23 Jan 2013 01:01:16 -0500

I do think your iphone number might be a bit low. But 650 ASP for iphones seems a bit high. Only a 9 dollar decline from last year. Data showing many people opted for iphone 4 and 4s, even in US. But I do think Apple moved 55M units.

ipad i think the mix favored ipad mini more than ipad

Google: Another Long Straddle

Mon, 21 Jan 2013 18:14:23 -0500

Excellent call on the straddle. I am predicting a huge move to the downside also.

Apple Is Not A Retirement Stock

Sat, 19 Jan 2013 13:13:13 -0500

Important to keep the faith in AAPL. Overwhelming ipad mini demand. Superb Q1 iphone sales. Margins may ultimately decline longer term as ipad gets cannabalized by mini but wall street should understand that AAPL can make this up in absolute gross margin dollars.

McDonald's: An Alternative To Yum?

Thu, 13 Dec 2012 15:51:08 -0500

If you have to pick one, MCD is a better option. But in all honesty, both are great companies

"It's not easy to make the iPhones. We are falling short of meeting the huge demand," says Foxconn (FXCOF.PK) chairman Terry Gou, suggesting iPhone 5 shortages aren't letting up. Another Foxconn exec made similar remarks last month. Analysts have reported Foxconn has enlisted a division that typically makes non-Apple (AAPL -2.8%) products to help address the shortfall.

Wed, 07 Nov 2012 14:06:42 -0500

no...they will sell more than 27 million...

Why Apple's Intrinsic Value Will Be $1000+ In 3 Years

Fri, 02 Nov 2012 10:54:36 -0400

You might be surprised richbar. You might be surprised.

Buffett Agrees - Doing Nothing Is The Path To Investment Success

Thu, 01 Nov 2012 01:47:02 -0400

Fantastic article. Of your picks I favor MCD the most.

Apples And Oranges - Is There Anything Beyond The iPhone/iPad Story?

Wed, 31 Oct 2012 16:14:47 -0400

It is very foolish to be calling the top in Apple now. You and all the other bears didn't have the guts to call it when Apple was trading at 700. You've poked your head out now that the bears have temporarily taken control of the stock. The sad thing is that Apple is near a bottom. See you in January Ed.

Apples And Oranges - Is There Anything Beyond The iPhone/iPad Story?

Wed, 31 Oct 2012 13:34:31 -0400

Where were you when Apple was at 700

Yum Brands - China Growth Comes With Double-Digit Wage Inflation

Fri, 26 Oct 2012 13:12:07 -0400

Been holding YUM for several years now. Very doubtful you could see returns of many hundred percent with options.