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  • Free Cash Flow Isn't Always so Free [View article]
    United Rentals is an interesting story. While you make good points as to their poor capital allocation, it is well reflected in the stock price. The current stock price assumes a high probability they don't survive. In any normal environment, they are capable of earning GAAP $1.75-$2.00 per share. So the question now becomes, can they survive, and if they can, is it so cheap that one can overlook their poor decisions of the past and buy it anyways....During normal times, URI needs to spend big money on new equipment. A huge cash drain. They are counter-cyclical with regards to cash flow. Today, while they still spend money on new equipment, they take in more cash by selling old equipment. They have huge depreciation expense, and they're not spending any of it right now. This will allow them to survive. You can basically buy this company at three times normal earnings. When normal earnings return, sell it as fast as you can. It's not a great company, but it's so cheap that it doesn't have to be.
    Jul 06 20:44 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment
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