fcharlie

Overvalued Timber REITs: No Improvement on the Horizon

WY just announced the sale of 140,000 acres at $2,142 per acre. PCL has been selling hundreds of thousands of acres at around the same price.. While I am interested in learning more about TIMO liquidations, I do think that timber companies view their businesses with a much longer time horizon. They don't generally grow a tree for 35 years only to chop it down and sell into a weak market. Also remember that a large portion of Weyerhaeuser's lumber goes to Japan and China via their Westwood Shipping Lines. Also remember that a lot of British Columbia's timber, won't exist in a few years. Read up on the pine beetle and the damage it's causing pine forests in B.C. I think much of your thesis is priced in. But please share more info on TIMO liquidations.

Plum Creek Timber: Hard Assets for Hard Times

Plum Creek and Weyerhaeuser will come roaring back when lumber prices finally begin to rise. Housing starts cannot stay at these levels forever, and something not many even talk about is the devastation occurring in British Columbia by the pine beetle. There is talk of up to 80% of British Columbia's lumber supply being destroyed over the next decade by the beetle infestation.... No one seems to talk about this today as housing starts and other lumber demands have dropped significantly faster than the supply.... but just wait. Both PCL and WY are great ways to play the rebound in demand and the rebound in lumber prices.