Sober Realist

China Remains a Compelling Buy via PowerShares Golden Dragon ETF

Hey, next year China's gonna hold free elections and develope a trias politica with a network of checks and balances...keep dreaming.

China Remains a Compelling Buy via PowerShares Golden Dragon ETF

Ssshhhhh...... you two need to stay quiet, you're tarnishing the investment thesis of the hot money.

George Soros knows bubbles and has stated that when he sees one, he jumps on it for the ride. But he made a telling statement recently questioning the herd mentality (of course he knows when to jump off before the bubble bursts):

"Maybe we're making the same mistake again by thinking that China and India will decouple from the developed world," Mr. Soros says.

Which Stocks to Watch on China's Growing Oil Consumption

People like Matthew Simmons make money off oil volatility.
It obviouslt has nothing to do (short term) with supply and demand:
The EIA publishes its weekly stock numbers on oil and other petroleum products each Wednesday.
www.eia.doe.gov/oil_ga...
or you can look at the raw numbers here:

tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/...

(Click on the Data 1 tag)

This week analysts thought stocks would drop by some 2 million barrels. Instead they increased by 2.866 million.

May 29, 2009 365.977 million bbls
May 22, 2009 363.111

That’s a 5 million bbls error which is huge. But it doesn’t begin to capture just how insane the oil market really is. This is the crude oil stock number from last year at this time.

May 30, 2008 306.757 million

We are currently carrying 59.22 million bbl more this year than last year. This is in large part due to the fact that the economy is doing so much worse this year. But that is rather the point. Supply is through the roof. The economy sucks, and the near oil crude future has doubled from its low of $30.28 which it hit on December 23, 2008 at the bottom of its collapse from the previous speculative binge, --or if you prefer the 2009 low, $34.03 on February 12, 2009.

tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav...


What this screams is manipulation. It is a subsidy for oil producers, a windfall for investment banks, and a hidden tax on already cash strapped American consumers.

"...the additional drops in consumption from the major industrialized countries since the start of 2008 have been quite remarkable. U.S. oil consumption in the first three months of this year averaged 18.8 million barrels per day, almost 2 mb/d below the value for 2007:Q1. Japan’s real GDP fell at a 15% annual rate in the first quarter, and its overall oil product output for April was 14% below year-earlier values, though the April measure of Japan’s industrial production showed a sharp gain. GDP declines in Europe also exceed those in the United States.

So to the extent that oil speculators see any green shoots, perhaps they’re in the nature of Asian bamboo rather than American prairie grass. Chinese oil consumption was up 4% in April, though that was the first year-on-year gain for them in 6 months. India’s oil consumption also seems to be growing. But so far those gains are well below the drops seen in the U.S. and elsewhere."
--- James Hamilton 5-31-09




On Jun 05 02:25 PM jimmy46 wrote:

> changes in oil prices result from a combination of """"""""
>
> YOU IGNORE ONE OF THE BIGGEST FACTORS:
> HEDGE FUNDS THAT PUSH THE PRICE FAR BEYOND WHAT THE MARKET WOULD
> DETERMINE.