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  • Bob Evans May Soon Be 'Delivering Farm Fresh' REIT Revenue [View article]
    JG, thanks for opining a view past the usual
    2-car parade thinking. As an uninformed
    sometime restaurant investor, could you describe
    "outyear" and how one should be aware of it?
    Woody Conover
    Sep 30 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson & Johnson - Stock Research - Large-Cap Growth At An Attractive Price [View article]
    Thanks for the analysis. I own a full position of JNJ now (no intent of selling), and after reading, would ask based on the following:
    a) a couple of years ago I was doing research on a large cap stock and was wondering why it wasn't going up: I found, (looking at an S&P report--they show PE ratios for the last 10 years), that the PE's declined over that period. Thus, the lack of price appreciation. JNJ exhibits the same trend.
    b) there appears to be a general deflationary cycle worldwide, as well as in the U.S., giving rise to a general declining PE of the mkt.
    c) JNJ is a large co., and it's tough to move the needle very much, (I just checked the latest quarterly and found that their revenue had declined slightly y-o-y; thus, I cannot expect rapid growth and expanding PE, or perhaps even a stable PE??,
    giving the question:
    when do you factor a multi-year declining PE into your analysis?
    From my perspective, JNJ is a great co., well worth owning. I like your analysis, but the stock has just jumped over the last 2 months. So, if I were still interested, I would probably either scale in gradually, or wait for the next market decline for a better opportunity. Thanks, Chuck, I do enjoy reading your work.
    Woody (from Reno)
    Jul 27 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Overvaluation and the Passive Investor [View article]
    Russell Napier's book: Anatomy of the Bear, a survey of the four greatest bear markets of the 20th century, uses the "q" to rate the bear markets. Thus, on the basis of q, the '82 bear market was worse than the '74 one. Russell further makes the point that the bear markets usually last 10-14 years. Thanks for the link to the "q".
    Apr 27 02:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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