oil baron

3 Aspects to Pricing Oil

Question:
If speculators are at least partially responsible for the runup in oil prices why are the outer contract months almost always in backwardation and rarely in contango?
The speculators rarely if ever take delivery and over time that is proof that speculators play virtually no part in the pricing of oil.
The reason for oils runup is supply and demand and geopolitical risks.
By 2020 oil consumption will exceed 120mmbopd and I suspect production will be considerably less.

I would like to hear some dissenting arguements to this theory...

Thank you