Skippy Stone

Sucker's Rally Approaching an End

On Apr 13 08:30 AM somecatchyphrase wrote:

> The author offers an excellent summation of the recent rally. Thank
> you.
>
> Nothing has changed in the past five weeks to justify a 25% rally.
> Despite all of the media coverage, it seems like many people don't
> yet appreciate the depth or gravity of the world economic situation.
>
>
> This could create a wonderful shorting opportunity. I'll keep my
> power dry and finger on trigger. The next month could prove to be
> very interesting.

Ha. EVERYTHING has changed. But, I see many are going to stay in their bear caves.

I guess the bears don't want to see that the banks around the world are being saved. Financial institutions are increasing deposits and the consumer (good and bad) are reducing debt. There are going to be negative numbers for another nine months. But much of that information will indicate what happened in 2008.

Now, let's pay attention to some obvious trading technicals:

A: The market is NOT up 20+ %. Use a one year high and a one year low, divide that in half, and tell me what ya' got. It ain't a 20% rise, is it?

B: Recent action indicates a trend up, not a trend down. If it was a bear trap, the biggest movers up would see a 25% retrace, immediately. This is not happening.

C: VIX. If you follow this indicator, then you see nothing but bullish bias. This thing could not get below 40 for months and months. Now, it doesn't want to go above 40. That should tell you something.

D: Trailing big caps: Many of the most familiar U.S. corporation have not even begun to really recover. It will only take one quarter of FLAT news to send these stocks soaring back to ONE HALF of their value last year.

If you want to remain pessimistic, please short some of my favorite long term plays. I will love squeezing the heck out of you little negative teddies.

As With Fertilizer Commodities, POT Bubbles

Gee, I just posted to this topic on IPI, right here in Seeking Alpha. What is it with S.A. attacking commodities? Did you miss the run and are jealous? Do you guys think that a fancy walkman company, or a search engine company GOOG are worth 100 to 300 times earnings, but commodity companies that actually give us something we NEED are only worth 10 times earnings?

Unfortunately, I guess the shorts like this stuff and they attacked IPI yesterday and I hit all my stops. I'll be back when all the short-sighted, (pun intended), people get smacked around some more.

This so reminds me of Boone Pickens saying "oil will be $85 by May". Hey Boone, how ya doing with them oil shorts?

Intrepid Potash IPO: Soaring Shares Signal Fertilizer Bubble?

A. I like the ratio last year ratio of IPI 200 p/e. It is so misleading. The most obvious reason is that potash sold at 1/8 of it's current price.

B. I always love how people think that tech stocks that usually produce nothing that we NEED are okay at huge multiples, but companies that give us necessities should sell at lower multiples. Where's the logic?

C. I can't eat an ipod nor a router. So which companies are REALLY worth more?