Bill James's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/184086/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1460771/comments?source=feed#comment-19237651 19237651
Life requires energy, the economy is an artifact, the economic momentum, of applying energy in generating economic work. Spending printed money adds to GDP but decreases Disposable Energy, peoples' disposable incomes' ability to buy energy, the amount of economic work being applied to generate momentum.

http://bit.ly/ZkxD2c]]> Sat, 25 May 2013 09:03:59 -0400
Life requires energy, the economy is an artifact, the economic momentum, of applying energy in generating economic work. Spending printed money adds to GDP but decreases Disposable Energy, peoples' disposable incomes' ability to buy energy, the amount of economic work being applied to generate momentum.

http://bit.ly/ZkxD2c]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1388441/comments?source=feed#comment-18332651 18332651 Wed, 01 May 2013 17:05:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/912241/comments?source=feed#comment-11214191 11214191
My guess is temporarily, gas prices will continue to decline. The margin of safety for gasoline and oil inventories is only about 2-4 days supply, or about 1%.]]> Sun, 04 Nov 2012 08:24:46 -0500
My guess is temporarily, gas prices will continue to decline. The margin of safety for gasoline and oil inventories is only about 2-4 days supply, or about 1%.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/937181/comments?source=feed#comment-10800831 10800831
JPods (http://bit.ly/H3jjf2) will be deploying a megawatt per mile of solar over our transportation networks. The Net Energy of solar is 20:1 as compared to Net Energy from new oil fields of 3:1. There is a 6x advantage of using solar to power transportation.

Freight railroads average 480 ton-miles per gallon. JPods are ultra-light, computer networked, robotic railroads (PRT or PodCars) that cut the costs by 10x in cities. Cost are cut from 56 cents a mile for cars to 6 cents a mile.

PRT networks are the Crossing the Chasm customers for the solar industry. The PRT Network built in Morgantown, WV has delivered 110 million oil-free, injury-free passenger-miles since being deployed as a solution to the 1973 Oil Embargo. (http://tinyurl.com/97c...).]]> Tue, 23 Oct 2012 10:10:33 -0400
JPods (http://bit.ly/H3jjf2) will be deploying a megawatt per mile of solar over our transportation networks. The Net Energy of solar is 20:1 as compared to Net Energy from new oil fields of 3:1. There is a 6x advantage of using solar to power transportation.

Freight railroads average 480 ton-miles per gallon. JPods are ultra-light, computer networked, robotic railroads (PRT or PodCars) that cut the costs by 10x in cities. Cost are cut from 56 cents a mile for cars to 6 cents a mile.

PRT networks are the Crossing the Chasm customers for the solar industry. The PRT Network built in Morgantown, WV has delivered 110 million oil-free, injury-free passenger-miles since being deployed as a solution to the 1973 Oil Embargo. (http://tinyurl.com/97c...).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/937181/comments?source=feed#comment-10800461 10800461 Tue, 23 Oct 2012 10:02:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/936581/comments?source=feed#comment-10724351 10724351 Sat, 20 Oct 2012 08:49:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/936581/comments?source=feed#comment-10724151 10724151
Disposable Energy should replace GDP. It measures the amount of economic work being applied to the Economic Flywheel. The more work being applied, the more momentum the flywheel has. The less affordable energy is, the less work being applied, economic momentum decays.

GDP increases at the moment government spending adds to funds to buy energy. As those debts must be serviced, the drag of economic momentum occurs in a later GDP snapshot.

This is a great piece. Thanks

GDP]]> Sat, 20 Oct 2012 08:42:08 -0400
Disposable Energy should replace GDP. It measures the amount of economic work being applied to the Economic Flywheel. The more work being applied, the more momentum the flywheel has. The less affordable energy is, the less work being applied, economic momentum decays.

GDP increases at the moment government spending adds to funds to buy energy. As those debts must be serviced, the drag of economic momentum occurs in a later GDP snapshot.

This is a great piece. Thanks

GDP]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/912241/comments?source=feed#comment-10359061 10359061
You are correct about "More money that goes into the gasoline tank implies less money for all other purchases ... including mortgages."

Life requires energy. Net Energy is equivalent to "take home pay."

As you note, there is lots of oil. The Net Energy of that oil sucks, sorry it is a technical term for "really bad experience."

Americans are accustomed to a free market where we pay vendors a profit to provide us resources so we can focus our talents to receive a profit by servicing our customers. Profit for care, implies a responsibility to care.

Customers deserve to be warned in 1998 that the $1.03 they were paying for gasoline would not be available in the future.

Customers deserved to be warned that gasoline might not be available even at $4.00 a gallon. There is lots of oil, the Net Energy of unconventional oil sucks (a technical term).]]> Wed, 10 Oct 2012 02:13:20 -0400
You are correct about "More money that goes into the gasoline tank implies less money for all other purchases ... including mortgages."

Life requires energy. Net Energy is equivalent to "take home pay."

As you note, there is lots of oil. The Net Energy of that oil sucks, sorry it is a technical term for "really bad experience."

Americans are accustomed to a free market where we pay vendors a profit to provide us resources so we can focus our talents to receive a profit by servicing our customers. Profit for care, implies a responsibility to care.

Customers deserve to be warned in 1998 that the $1.03 they were paying for gasoline would not be available in the future.

Customers deserved to be warned that gasoline might not be available even at $4.00 a gallon. There is lots of oil, the Net Energy of unconventional oil sucks (a technical term).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/912241/comments?source=feed#comment-10347121 10347121 Storage and refining on both coasts is extraordinarily limited. The fragility in both markets is incredible.

Thanks for the storage link.

I am pretty sure PRT networks will rival the railroads of 1860-1910 and the Internet/cell nets of 1984-2010 in changing infrastructure. There are 140,000 miles of freight rail that averages 480 ton-miles per gallon. PRT networks can approach and some exceed that efficiency. About 500,000 miles of PRT are needed, or about $5 trillion. The 90% cost reduction per vehicle-mile pays for the infrastructure. ]]> Tue, 09 Oct 2012 17:35:31 -0400 Storage and refining on both coasts is extraordinarily limited. The fragility in both markets is incredible.

Thanks for the storage link.

I am pretty sure PRT networks will rival the railroads of 1860-1910 and the Internet/cell nets of 1984-2010 in changing infrastructure. There are 140,000 miles of freight rail that averages 480 ton-miles per gallon. PRT networks can approach and some exceed that efficiency. About 500,000 miles of PRT are needed, or about $5 trillion. The 90% cost reduction per vehicle-mile pays for the infrastructure. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/912241/comments?source=feed#comment-10332311 10332311 I believe you are correct. Life requires energy, less affordable energy, less life. But energy is the last thing people stop paying for. So as gas prices increase, eventually something else in the economy breaks.

As gas prices increased from $1.03 in 1998 to $3.30 in 2008, families lost about $2,000 of disposable income. As more and more families chose between paying for their commutes (keep their jobs) and paying their mortgages, foreclosures collapsed the banking systems.

My guess is gas prices will climb until something breaks. But the value of energy assets will break less than other aspects of the economy. Life requires energy.]]> Tue, 09 Oct 2012 12:24:35 -0400 I believe you are correct. Life requires energy, less affordable energy, less life. But energy is the last thing people stop paying for. So as gas prices increase, eventually something else in the economy breaks.

As gas prices increased from $1.03 in 1998 to $3.30 in 2008, families lost about $2,000 of disposable income. As more and more families chose between paying for their commutes (keep their jobs) and paying their mortgages, foreclosures collapsed the banking systems.

My guess is gas prices will climb until something breaks. But the value of energy assets will break less than other aspects of the economy. Life requires energy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/909761/comments?source=feed#comment-10278331 10278331 Mon, 08 Oct 2012 08:13:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/838921/comments?source=feed#comment-9355121 9355121 http://seekingalpha.co...]]> Wed, 12 Sep 2012 08:29:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/829011/comments?source=feed#comment-8817741 8817741 Mon, 27 Aug 2012 11:45:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/815761/comments?source=feed#comment-8714501 8714501
I think we are going to regret making oil the lifeblood of our economy. Here is a summary of why I think it is unconstitutional:
http://bit.ly/PvzBrw]]> Thu, 23 Aug 2012 19:30:44 -0400
I think we are going to regret making oil the lifeblood of our economy. Here is a summary of why I think it is unconstitutional:
http://bit.ly/PvzBrw]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/815761/comments?source=feed#comment-8645781 8645781 Wed, 22 Aug 2012 08:18:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/813732/comments?source=feed#comment-8601281 8601281
As much as that sounds good, it assumes the planners are smarter than free markets. The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 institutionalized oil as the lifeblood of our economy; indicating they cannot find their butt with both hands. In 1956 Hubbert published that US domestic oil production would peak in about 1970, which it did. Since then "the plan" has been to import oil and pay for it with debt.

When liberty to choose networks was restored to the people in communications in 1984, long dormant technologies of the Internet and cell nets commercialized. When people have liberty to choose transport networks, JPods and other will offer networks that use 1/10th the energy without congestion. Here is a link to the Constitutional foundation for why liberty is better than central planning.

http://bit.ly/NCkzPZ]]> Tue, 21 Aug 2012 00:00:55 -0400
As much as that sounds good, it assumes the planners are smarter than free markets. The Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 institutionalized oil as the lifeblood of our economy; indicating they cannot find their butt with both hands. In 1956 Hubbert published that US domestic oil production would peak in about 1970, which it did. Since then "the plan" has been to import oil and pay for it with debt.

When liberty to choose networks was restored to the people in communications in 1984, long dormant technologies of the Internet and cell nets commercialized. When people have liberty to choose transport networks, JPods and other will offer networks that use 1/10th the energy without congestion. Here is a link to the Constitutional foundation for why liberty is better than central planning.

http://bit.ly/NCkzPZ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/813732/comments?source=feed#comment-8601001 8601001
Converting that $300 billion a month of costs into $270 billion per month of potential profit will drive adoption.]]> Mon, 20 Aug 2012 23:46:50 -0400
Converting that $300 billion a month of costs into $270 billion per month of potential profit will drive adoption.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/815761/comments?source=feed#comment-8592061 8592061
I completely agree with the garden. Famine from oil supply shock is a choice.

In terms of small devices, my list is Goal Zero charger for AA/AAA batteries and cell phones, SteriPen (UV water sterilizer) and 300 pounds of beans and rice.]]> Mon, 20 Aug 2012 17:07:41 -0400
I completely agree with the garden. Famine from oil supply shock is a choice.

In terms of small devices, my list is Goal Zero charger for AA/AAA batteries and cell phones, SteriPen (UV water sterilizer) and 300 pounds of beans and rice.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/815761/comments?source=feed#comment-8591741 8591741 Mon, 20 Aug 2012 17:01:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/813732/comments?source=feed#comment-8570891 8570891
Mountain View story:
http://bit.ly/MGOeGm

Gizmag on JPods:
http://bit.ly/TPlECV]]> Mon, 20 Aug 2012 08:30:21 -0400
Mountain View story:
http://bit.ly/MGOeGm

Gizmag on JPods:
http://bit.ly/TPlECV]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/813732/comments?source=feed#comment-8558381 8558381
Seeking Alpha summary: http://seekingalpha.co...

"Drums of August" Foreign Policy article: http://bit.ly/PJjohn]]> Sun, 19 Aug 2012 16:27:15 -0400
Seeking Alpha summary: http://seekingalpha.co...

"Drums of August" Foreign Policy article: http://bit.ly/PJjohn]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/813732/comments?source=feed#comment-8558241 8558241 Sun, 19 Aug 2012 16:23:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/815761/comments?source=feed#comment-8557991 8557991
This will change. My guess is this winter will be complex.]]> Sun, 19 Aug 2012 16:15:48 -0400
This will change. My guess is this winter will be complex.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/815761/comments?source=feed#comment-8557791 8557791
US Peak Oil was in 1970. Since 1970 we have had proof of the need to restore powering the US within a solar budget. Life and the US were founded and existed for most of history powered within a solar budget. Counting "no-fly mission," US military forces have been daily engaged in the Middle East since 1990. Yet we have done nothing to reduce US need for oil.

Freight railroads average 480 ton-miles per gallon. We know radically greater efficiency is practical. The Personal Rapid Transit network built in Morgantown, WV as a solution to the 1973 Oil Embargo has delivered 110 million oil-free, injury-free passenger-miles.

There are alternatives to the Federal mandated highway network. Yet we have petro-dollars to continue to fund the Iranian nuclear program. We are foolish.]]> Sun, 19 Aug 2012 16:12:17 -0400
US Peak Oil was in 1970. Since 1970 we have had proof of the need to restore powering the US within a solar budget. Life and the US were founded and existed for most of history powered within a solar budget. Counting "no-fly mission," US military forces have been daily engaged in the Middle East since 1990. Yet we have done nothing to reduce US need for oil.

Freight railroads average 480 ton-miles per gallon. We know radically greater efficiency is practical. The Personal Rapid Transit network built in Morgantown, WV as a solution to the 1973 Oil Embargo has delivered 110 million oil-free, injury-free passenger-miles.

There are alternatives to the Federal mandated highway network. Yet we have petro-dollars to continue to fund the Iranian nuclear program. We are foolish.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/781811/comments?source=feed#comment-8127371 8127371
The investing point is that if inventories diminish to about 190 million barres (2 days supply) as multiple storms tracking through the Gulf, even without damage, a panic can pull 15 million barrels out of inventory in a region and 30 to 60 million barrels nationally.

The shape of the blue nipple indicates it takes 4 to 8 weeks to recover from a modest shortage once drivers panic. The EIA reporting 22 days of supply when there is really only one above panic levels, creates an investing advantage.]]> Mon, 06 Aug 2012 09:25:45 -0400
The investing point is that if inventories diminish to about 190 million barres (2 days supply) as multiple storms tracking through the Gulf, even without damage, a panic can pull 15 million barrels out of inventory in a region and 30 to 60 million barrels nationally.

The shape of the blue nipple indicates it takes 4 to 8 weeks to recover from a modest shortage once drivers panic. The EIA reporting 22 days of supply when there is really only one above panic levels, creates an investing advantage.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/781811/comments?source=feed#comment-8106961 8106961 Sun, 05 Aug 2012 10:39:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/663441/comments?source=feed#comment-7400301 7400301
Your point is the critical one. Wrong kind of food. If we did not have food stamps, the cheapest calories would be gained by having a home garden. As a kid in the 1950, nearly everyone I knew had gardens in their yards that produce significant quantities of low cost, high quality food.

With food stamps people can still by the processed food in a grocery store that is equivalent to a Double Whopper.

Gardens are critical to enduring the oil supply shocks that are coming. Ending food stamps might keep famine at bay and increase the quality of food people eat.]]> Sun, 15 Jul 2012 12:42:59 -0400
Your point is the critical one. Wrong kind of food. If we did not have food stamps, the cheapest calories would be gained by having a home garden. As a kid in the 1950, nearly everyone I knew had gardens in their yards that produce significant quantities of low cost, high quality food.

With food stamps people can still by the processed food in a grocery store that is equivalent to a Double Whopper.

Gardens are critical to enduring the oil supply shocks that are coming. Ending food stamps might keep famine at bay and increase the quality of food people eat.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/663441/comments?source=feed#comment-7214661 7214661
Welfare to farmers to grow as much corn as possible that is non-edible except as packaged food.

Welfare to people in food stamps that steers them to buy dense crappy calories instead of plant a garden, grow and eat good foods.

Harm in the attempt to do good. The Constitution limits the Federal government to only "promote" welfare because human nature and nature of government have not changed. Liberty requires self-reliance. As noted in Federalist #79, "In the general course of human nature, A POWER OVER A MAN's SUBSISTENCE AMOUNTS TO A POWER OVER HIS WILL."

The food industry is acting in its nature, trying to get the government to direct us as best it can to buy its most profitable calories. All acts of government are the acts of "interested men." Liberals trying to support the needy accomplishes the exact opposite. It makes them dependent, erodes their liberty and health as they are trained that school lunches are food.]]> Mon, 09 Jul 2012 18:51:36 -0400
Welfare to farmers to grow as much corn as possible that is non-edible except as packaged food.

Welfare to people in food stamps that steers them to buy dense crappy calories instead of plant a garden, grow and eat good foods.

Harm in the attempt to do good. The Constitution limits the Federal government to only "promote" welfare because human nature and nature of government have not changed. Liberty requires self-reliance. As noted in Federalist #79, "In the general course of human nature, A POWER OVER A MAN's SUBSISTENCE AMOUNTS TO A POWER OVER HIS WILL."

The food industry is acting in its nature, trying to get the government to direct us as best it can to buy its most profitable calories. All acts of government are the acts of "interested men." Liberals trying to support the needy accomplishes the exact opposite. It makes them dependent, erodes their liberty and health as they are trained that school lunches are food.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/705201/comments?source=feed#comment-7158031 7158031
I am really interested in what could stabilize currency. I believe stable currency is vital, but gold is a poor absolute standard. Life requires energy, so the value of energy and labor seem pretty fundamental.

I will look up BitCoin.]]> Sat, 07 Jul 2012 18:34:45 -0400
I am really interested in what could stabilize currency. I believe stable currency is vital, but gold is a poor absolute standard. Life requires energy, so the value of energy and labor seem pretty fundamental.

I will look up BitCoin.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/705201/comments?source=feed#comment-7149441 7149441
Problems are dynamic, there are no solutions. Winning today yields the opportunity to compete again tomorrow. Capitalizing all costs into use in free markets aggregates the wisdom of all of us to choose between choices. Free markets creates niches so innovators can frame and commercialize choices.

The current economic pain is caused by socialism. Mobilizing to fight WWI the Federal government monopolized/socialized communications, power and transportation as "natural monopolies" institutionalizing into monopolies the great innovations of Ford, Edison, Bell and the Wright Brothers.

Federal monopolies gave us a century of rotary telephones and made oil the lifeblood of our economy.

Oil is finite. US Peak Oil was 1970. Since 1970 oil imports and national debt have increased in tandem. Counting "no-fly missions" US military forces have been daily engaged in defending access to foreign oil since 1990. The costs of wars to protect access to oil have been socialized into national debt instead of capitalized into gasoline prices. Pollution costs have been socialized into risk of Climate Change. DOT/DOE costs have been socialized into national debt instead of capitalized into gas/coal prices.

Rigid monopolies facing dynamic problems created Oil Famine; monolithic dependence on a source of energy 50% outside our control that we must borrow to consume.

Federal courts found the communications monopoly unconstitutional in 1984 resulting in millions of jobs and vast wealth creation as a century of understanding was applied to re-tool. That same success will occur once Federal monopolies of power and transport are restored to free markets and all costs properly capitalized. There is great Constitutional foundation for free market capitalism:

http://bit.ly/PvzBrw

Some mechanism of protecting the value of currency is essential. I am concerned that gold standard would be un-dynamic as government monopolies. Life requires energy. Perhaps energy and efficiency could provide a standard.

I think the metric Disposable Energy should replace GDP as a measure of economic health: http://bit.ly/LV7Bdo]]> Sat, 07 Jul 2012 10:52:58 -0400
Problems are dynamic, there are no solutions. Winning today yields the opportunity to compete again tomorrow. Capitalizing all costs into use in free markets aggregates the wisdom of all of us to choose between choices. Free markets creates niches so innovators can frame and commercialize choices.

The current economic pain is caused by socialism. Mobilizing to fight WWI the Federal government monopolized/socialized communications, power and transportation as "natural monopolies" institutionalizing into monopolies the great innovations of Ford, Edison, Bell and the Wright Brothers.

Federal monopolies gave us a century of rotary telephones and made oil the lifeblood of our economy.

Oil is finite. US Peak Oil was 1970. Since 1970 oil imports and national debt have increased in tandem. Counting "no-fly missions" US military forces have been daily engaged in defending access to foreign oil since 1990. The costs of wars to protect access to oil have been socialized into national debt instead of capitalized into gasoline prices. Pollution costs have been socialized into risk of Climate Change. DOT/DOE costs have been socialized into national debt instead of capitalized into gas/coal prices.

Rigid monopolies facing dynamic problems created Oil Famine; monolithic dependence on a source of energy 50% outside our control that we must borrow to consume.

Federal courts found the communications monopoly unconstitutional in 1984 resulting in millions of jobs and vast wealth creation as a century of understanding was applied to re-tool. That same success will occur once Federal monopolies of power and transport are restored to free markets and all costs properly capitalized. There is great Constitutional foundation for free market capitalism:

http://bit.ly/PvzBrw

Some mechanism of protecting the value of currency is essential. I am concerned that gold standard would be un-dynamic as government monopolies. Life requires energy. Perhaps energy and efficiency could provide a standard.

I think the metric Disposable Energy should replace GDP as a measure of economic health: http://bit.ly/LV7Bdo]]>