sharpe_mind's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/184187/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/159504-now-is-a-good-time-to-consider-an-oil-gold-pair-trade?source=feed#comment-657975 657975 Wed, 02 Sep 2009 08:43:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78486-the-informal-china-banking-sector-is-growing?source=feed#comment-173914 173914
The yuan barely moved in April as authorities capped the exchange rate around 7 in order to "stabilize expectations of further yuan appreciation"; clearly noone was convinced by this gesture.]]> Mon, 26 May 2008 07:20:10 -0400
The yuan barely moved in April as authorities capped the exchange rate around 7 in order to "stabilize expectations of further yuan appreciation"; clearly noone was convinced by this gesture.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78276-china-lots-of-oil-price-speculation?source=feed#comment-172372 172372 Fri, 23 May 2008 02:24:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77240-china-s-devastating-earthquake-bad-for-monetary-policy-too?source=feed#comment-167731 167731 Wed, 14 May 2008 20:37:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76629-china-latest-indexes-indicate-inflation?source=feed#comment-165265 165265
Also, without including the boring details, using some data just released out of the Ministry of Commerce, in combination with previous months' export and import figures, you can deduce that the April trade surplus will come in at roughly $16.8 B (could be some rounding errors related to the imprecision of the inputs). Still strong, up from March, and above $15.5 B consensus (though clearly past its end-2007 peak). Export growth will be about 21.8% vs April 2007, and the dollar value of exports will be about $118.7 B, a new high for any individual month.]]> Fri, 09 May 2008 21:32:00 -0400
Also, without including the boring details, using some data just released out of the Ministry of Commerce, in combination with previous months' export and import figures, you can deduce that the April trade surplus will come in at roughly $16.8 B (could be some rounding errors related to the imprecision of the inputs). Still strong, up from March, and above $15.5 B consensus (though clearly past its end-2007 peak). Export growth will be about 21.8% vs April 2007, and the dollar value of exports will be about $118.7 B, a new high for any individual month.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69976-china-caught-in-a-monetary-trap?source=feed#comment-161384 161384
In effect this would be like increasing China's consumption metrics, by the state instead of the private sector.]]> Sun, 04 May 2008 08:30:42 -0400
In effect this would be like increasing China's consumption metrics, by the state instead of the private sector.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74908-why-china-s-exporters-are-complaining-loudly?source=feed#comment-161258 161258 SEZ), and has been tremendously successful, it makes perfect sense that it should be the first one where wages rise to the point where the very low end is priced out (as higher value exports open up and take over). My suspicion is that part of the recent fervour has been Shenzhen's proximity to the Hong Kong press (which means the press has easy access to those complaining as well as a wide forum for airing their complaints), as well as the fact that many of the early established lower value added factories in Shenzhen are owned by Hong Kongers.

I'm in complete agreement with Mr. Pettis- the interior is picking up the lower end exports as the coast/south moves up the value chain. For example, China is starting to come up in heavier industry and capital goods, such as shipbuilding and autos, and the tertiary industry is growing strongly. Even so, exporter complaints may be beside the point and exactly what is needed. At this level of inflation, there _needs_ to be pain somewhere to bring inflation lower. If anything China has wanted to have its cake and eat it too. The very best thing for China would be pain concentrated in the export sector, as opposed to pain spread throughout the entire economy.]]> Sat, 03 May 2008 18:15:08 -0400 SEZ), and has been tremendously successful, it makes perfect sense that it should be the first one where wages rise to the point where the very low end is priced out (as higher value exports open up and take over). My suspicion is that part of the recent fervour has been Shenzhen's proximity to the Hong Kong press (which means the press has easy access to those complaining as well as a wide forum for airing their complaints), as well as the fact that many of the early established lower value added factories in Shenzhen are owned by Hong Kongers.

I'm in complete agreement with Mr. Pettis- the interior is picking up the lower end exports as the coast/south moves up the value chain. For example, China is starting to come up in heavier industry and capital goods, such as shipbuilding and autos, and the tertiary industry is growing strongly. Even so, exporter complaints may be beside the point and exactly what is needed. At this level of inflation, there _needs_ to be pain somewhere to bring inflation lower. If anything China has wanted to have its cake and eat it too. The very best thing for China would be pain concentrated in the export sector, as opposed to pain spread throughout the entire economy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74908-why-china-s-exporters-are-complaining-loudly?source=feed#comment-161257 161257
continuum, trade balances aren't the only factor one can use to explain a currency's value. Numerous other factors are important, including relative interest rates and structural savings/investment vs consumption levels. But the bottom line is that if the PBOC stopped buying USD tomorrow, CNY would rise tremendously. It would take a serious appreciation before China's private sector started sending its money abroad, as the lackluster reception of QDII and the small outward FDI show. Besides you probably need that very large appreciation to occur in the first place before corporate China would feel like sending money aboard was even worth fighting the CNY's continual appreciation.

paultaut- I agree 100%. Just look at the stock price of WMT, which accounts for an astounding 30% of foreign purchases in China and 10% of all US imports from China: ipezone.blogspot.com/2...]]> Sat, 03 May 2008 18:00:34 -0400
continuum, trade balances aren't the only factor one can use to explain a currency's value. Numerous other factors are important, including relative interest rates and structural savings/investment vs consumption levels. But the bottom line is that if the PBOC stopped buying USD tomorrow, CNY would rise tremendously. It would take a serious appreciation before China's private sector started sending its money abroad, as the lackluster reception of QDII and the small outward FDI show. Besides you probably need that very large appreciation to occur in the first place before corporate China would feel like sending money aboard was even worth fighting the CNY's continual appreciation.

paultaut- I agree 100%. Just look at the stock price of WMT, which accounts for an astounding 30% of foreign purchases in China and 10% of all US imports from China: ipezone.blogspot.com/2...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70749-china-s-pmi-numbers-are-too-strong?source=feed#comment-161250 161250
No, the currency is ancillary to Japan's problems in the 90s. They stem from too lax monetary policy in the late 80s, and then a series of blunders in the 90s including too tight monetary policy (as evidence by the continued strong appreciation of the yen after the Louvre accord). In addition, Japan began suffering as their exports were cut into by the rising Asian tigers, and behind them China.

In the case of China, there really is no other China to threaten Chinese exports. No other places have the one-stop shop quality and the infrastructure. Vietnam and Cambodia are far too small, India has far too much red tape, poor infrastructure, and is much more union-friendly, and Africa continues to be a basket case. Latin America and Russia are far too expensive. The era of disinflationary prices of imports from the developing world is over.]]> Sat, 03 May 2008 17:42:28 -0400
No, the currency is ancillary to Japan's problems in the 90s. They stem from too lax monetary policy in the late 80s, and then a series of blunders in the 90s including too tight monetary policy (as evidence by the continued strong appreciation of the yen after the Louvre accord). In addition, Japan began suffering as their exports were cut into by the rising Asian tigers, and behind them China.

In the case of China, there really is no other China to threaten Chinese exports. No other places have the one-stop shop quality and the infrastructure. Vietnam and Cambodia are far too small, India has far too much red tape, poor infrastructure, and is much more union-friendly, and Africa continues to be a basket case. Latin America and Russia are far too expensive. The era of disinflationary prices of imports from the developing world is over.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73520-china-stagflation-revisited?source=feed#comment-159037 159037 Tue, 29 Apr 2008 22:26:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/73520-china-stagflation-revisited?source=feed#comment-158447 158447 Tue, 29 Apr 2008 06:25:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/73520-china-stagflation-revisited?source=feed#comment-157746 157746
It seems like China is basically praying that the inflation situation goes away, with "temporary" price controls and other band aids such as export curbs (or high taxes in the case of fertilizer). A number of economists predict inflation will come off in the second half of the year due to base effects, but this theory's timeline continues to be pushed further out as inflation continues to be stronger than expected. I am skeptical of it especially given the broadening out of inflation pressures, the inflation in the pipeline due to price controls and the continued rise of PPI, and negative real rates. Could anything finally force China to move?]]> Mon, 28 Apr 2008 01:22:01 -0400
It seems like China is basically praying that the inflation situation goes away, with "temporary" price controls and other band aids such as export curbs (or high taxes in the case of fertilizer). A number of economists predict inflation will come off in the second half of the year due to base effects, but this theory's timeline continues to be pushed further out as inflation continues to be stronger than expected. I am skeptical of it especially given the broadening out of inflation pressures, the inflation in the pipeline due to price controls and the continued rise of PPI, and negative real rates. Could anything finally force China to move?]]>