blu's Comments

Peak Oil Demand

Fri, 04 Dec 2009 14:35:25 -0500

jerrydd,
You are right about one thing..The world will not see 86 million barrels per day of oil and NGL's again.

That leaves only one route... much higher oil and gas prices.
You are a much smarter individual than most on this planet if you can stipulate with specificity the dates and times of prices to come.

As for me, I will just say that higher and higher prices are a certainty.
Don't know exactly when, or exactly how high, but it will be nice for those of us who have established a production base over the years.
I'm looking forward to it and grinning... (after some really hard years in the past.)

Gordon Currie on Where to Invest in Energy Right Now

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:40:25 -0500

Dinosaur juice is what built the economies of the world and still sustain them today. Production shortfalls that are looming make oil very attractive for the foreseeable future.
I'll buy green when green becomes economically viable without subsidies.

Stephen Schork: More Upside in Oil

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:41:21 -0500

I have never agreed with much anything that this "expert" Schork has espoused... But then I am a Texas oil producer who knows that Peak Oil is a geological reality... Schork has his head in the sand.

International Energy Association: Forced to Eat Their Optimistic Data on Future Oil Supply?

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:38:37 -0500

An overlooked point...
Peak oil is predicated on production capabilities, not reserves.
Will the earth ever produce 87 million barrels per day again?
Some forget how prolific the Saudi fields WERE. To try to produce the newly found fields at the former rates seen in the Mideast is asking for premature destruction of the new fields. Demand for crude will blow past that 87 million per day as recovery takes place. There will be large cyclical movements, but overall the price is going to explode upward. Getting the crude out of the ground at rates to satisfy global demand is problematic, if not impossible, in the near term (15 years). It's going to be a "heck-of-a" ride. JMHO

It's Going to Get Ugly

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:35:01 -0500

Fitz,
this is one of your less appealing blogs...

Obama's Marxist regime will end ... fuel demand will not.
Government will find a way to tax the hell out it and justify it to the ignorant masses. It doesn't matter which party is "in control"..
The only thing that is saving us at the present is the poor economy.

Natural Gas Extraction May Be More Expensive Than It Seems

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 10:27:04 -0500

So some are beginning to see my position on shale reservoirs.
The light gets brighter as more companies end up writing down reserves.

The End of the Oil Age? Not Quite

Thu, 15 Oct 2009 12:19:24 -0400

I believe longoil has a valid point about natural gas reserves.
With all the hype of how much natural gas we supposedly have, the facts about depletion in these newer tight reservoirs has been somewhat overlooked.
I don't touch any company that plays the shales, as I don't believe the reserves or sustained production capabilities of these wells. Only time will prove who is right about this. The Barnett in Texas has shown me plenty of evidence to be wary. The wells will be economical again someday... when NG prices spike back up..and that is inevitable. I'm in favor of the Pickens Plan, but how long it is sustainable is my big question.

BRING THE TROOPS HOME - NOW!!

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 10:23:57 -0400

<>

oops.. s/b " their "not "there"

On Sep 24 10:19 AM blu wrote:

> I am of the opinion that the crux of our problems in any military
> action lays with the media. The Vietnam War was the first war where
> "embedded" media personnel were able to fill the evening news hours
> with war video.
> In all honesty, the civilian public has no stomach for such. Such
> news coverage can do nothing but turn the public against any confrontation.
> Civilians are not trained or prepared for what must be done in battle.
>
> In the same vein, Congress is not prepared either. They hear from
> there constituents crying about seeing all the gore.
> Being informed about the war effort, and actually seeing it are two
> different things completely. Sure, it fascinates the public at first,
> but as it continues in time, the media starts looking for ways to
> maintain the public interest in the blood and gore.
> Our congress must have oversight, but they need to have some confidence
> in our military leaders. They need to let the military do the fighting
> the way the military knows how to do it. The media should never
> be embedded with the troops. War is for warriors, not civilians.
> If we do not have the confidence to let our military leaders fight
> and win, then we are wasting precious blood. There are better ways
> of policing the military than by using the media for such and exposing
> the hell of war to all our citizens.

BRING THE TROOPS HOME - NOW!!

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 10:19:53 -0400

I am of the opinion that the crux of our problems in any military action lays with the media. The Vietnam War was the first war where "embedded" media personnel were able to fill the evening news hours with war video.
In all honesty, the civilian public has no stomach for such. Such news coverage can do nothing but turn the public against any confrontation. Civilians are not trained or prepared for what must be done in battle.
In the same vein, Congress is not prepared either. They hear from there constituents crying about seeing all the gore.
Being informed about the war effort, and actually seeing it are two different things completely. Sure, it fascinates the public at first, but as it continues in time, the media starts looking for ways to maintain the public interest in the blood and gore.
Our congress must have oversight, but they need to have some confidence in our military leaders. They need to let the military do the fighting the way the military knows how to do it. The media should never be embedded with the troops. War is for warriors, not civilians. If we do not have the confidence to let our military leaders fight and win, then we are wasting precious blood. There are better ways of policing the military than by using the media for such and exposing the hell of war to all our citizens.

On Sep 23 11:25 AM Mark Bern wrote:

> I have some difficulty with wanting to stay in a war that we don't
> intend to win or a war that is micro-managed by Congress.

>
> Now, I am not saying we should stay. And I'm not saying we should
> leave. What I am saying is that if we aren't in it to win, we should
> find a way out.

Onyx Pharmaceuticals: Is Nexavar the Next Avastin?

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 09:52:05 -0400

In my case, the side effects are manageable. I will be half way through the trial in another week. (The trial duration is 54 weeks).
Side effects have improved in the last 12 weeks, and I am very optimistic about the future.
Sorafenib has been receiving good reviews in Europe and around the world. I have a google search running constantly for news on kidney cancer and almost every day there is news about this drug.
I believe you are quite correct in your outlook.
Thanks for the well wishes.

Onyx Pharmaceuticals: Is Nexavar the Next Avastin?

Wed, 23 Sep 2009 21:31:00 -0400

I am participating in a nationwide clinical trial through M.D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston. The trial is a double blind study to ascertain the effectiveness of Sorafenib, Sutent, and a placebo in an adjuvant setting for kidney cancer.

This trial has grown considerably since I began participation as they continue to add participants. This is partially due to a high drop out rate due to significant side effects from the drugs.

I am certain that I am taking Sorafenib as my side effects do not subside during the rest period from Sutent.

I am hopeful this adjuvant application is successful as kidney cancer is notorious for returning after surgery in other parts of the body. As the trial size expands, the date of final analysis is pushed farther out in the future. No chemo treatment has been found to be effective in staving off the return of the disease as yet. If Sorafenib proves to be beneficial in this application, then sales will certainly be bolstered significantly.

More Crude Oil Backing Up

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 11:13:33 -0400

Oil field activity is picking up here in West Texas. There is a feeling that demand is turning around and money is flowing back into drilling and development. I'm starting to spend some cash on my own leases now as economics are looking better.
The trend is gaining strength, against the feeble inventory data. There is simply not enough inventory storage available anymore, given the burn rate that is coming.... The oil price trend is up. I don't think I'll buck the trend for a while.

10 Top Oil and Natural Gas Exporting Countries

Fri, 31 Jul 2009 11:03:53 -0400

This is the most current data??????
Just shows how pathetic the accounting for oil supply, demand, and reserves remains. The oil and gas markets operate on unreliable and outdated information. That exacerbates price volatility that is fueled further by the peak oil scenario.

Boring BP? Not for Your Wallet

Wed, 22 Jul 2009 10:22:39 -0400

Purchased BP as a core long term hold at $38/sh...I like the company, the dividend, and its prospects for growth.
Nice article.

California Resource Maximization: Marijuana First, Then Oil

Mon, 20 Jul 2009 13:06:09 -0400

A. Young,,
Severance taxes have nothing to do with the existence of royalties.
Where the hell did that come from???
California could retain a royalty interest under the leases and benefit tremendously. Taxation of production is simply a way to "double dip" on the properties and take an even bigger piece of the pie...and discourage development.

On Jul 20 08:48 AM Alan Young wrote:

> California will make nothing on royalties from oil fields because
> it remains the only oil-producing state that has NO oil-severance
> tax. When the oil companies stop lobbying against our recurring proposals
> to tax the resource, then we can discuss tapping more.
>
> BTW, critics often claim that Californians want to enjoy state spending
> without paying taxes. That's not accurate. 60% of us want the state
> to spend amply, and are willing to pay taxes accordingly. 35-40%
> are stubbornly anti-tax; that's enough to crate the impasse. A constitutional
> revision to remove the minority roadblock would resolve this.

Is Regulating Oil Speculation a Good Idea?

Thu, 09 Jul 2009 10:57:09 -0400

Regulation of markets never works. Investors always find a way to circumvent the regulations by indirect means.
Floors and ceilings have been tried many times in the past with terrible results.
There is a fear of oil going back to $147/bbl and for some reason these pro-regulators believe this will forestall that or prevent it.
It is nonsense. Oil will be going much higher and so long as there are markets that trade it, there will be no stopping it. Floors or no.

Oil to Retest $40/Barrel by Year-End?

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:53:11 -0400

I'll go with Pickens... Those that have the oil determine the price. Saudi's and OPEC have said they like $75... They have the oil.

Volatile Crude Oil Prices Confound Analysts

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:59:19 -0400

jerrydd,
Sounds like you've got it all figured out. ;)

Predicting Oil and Gas Prices: 2009-2016

Wed, 24 Jun 2009 22:21:22 -0400

davew,
I have long advocated the maximization of the railroads, however it was brought to my attention that the unionized truckers and unionized railroad folks don't see eye to eye, and at present the truckers outnumber the railroaders. So it is likely that the truckers will have their way and keep their inefficient method of transport for some time to come.

EV's are nonsense. You already have greenies screaming to the heavens about disposal of hearing aid batteries and the like.
Where are they going to put all those spent car batteries?
EV's simply do not make sense. That's why our government is all for them. Think about it.. you have multiple conversions of energy forms that have to be transmitted through inefficient power lines to a battery that then transmits the energy to a motor.
It is idiotic and not cost effective.
That's why it will probably be pursued to the taxpayer's detriment, as was/is ethanol.

Predicting Oil and Gas Prices: 2009-2016

Wed, 24 Jun 2009 14:43:32 -0400

Over 35% of the traffic on interstate highways are eighteen wheelers.
They don't quite get the mileage that cars get.
There is no electric motor that will move a big rig efficiently.
EV's are like ethanol... a bad joke to be played on the public.
But you can bet our new socialistic government will force EV's down our throats just as was ethanol.

Should Mexico Stop Exporting Oil?

Wed, 24 Jun 2009 12:20:58 -0400

Well I don't know beans about cold fusion, but I do know it doesn't matter what Mexico does....
They can cut and save... they can pump and sell.. or they can "drill baby, drill. It is a decision for them domestically. As far as world oil supply goes, it is part of what the markets are seeing as rapidly decreasing supply and forthcoming increases in demand.
Peak oil has come and gone.... its effects have only begun.

Oil's Trending Up, But Speculators Aren't to Blame

Tue, 16 Jun 2009 11:59:34 -0400

Nice to read a sensible argument that I have been concurring with, and posting such, for months.
The populist arguments mentioned, will not go away. For some reason the media has to find a "blame", "evil conspiracy", or "scapegoat" for every news item that comes across their desks.

I have long advocated that people should hedge against increasing energy costs by participating in the markets. Most will not listen to arguments similar to the above article, because they have been "taught" to look for a scapegoat and not truthful, rational explanations that really make sense.
It's how America has evolved... JMHO

Don't Believe This Rally in Oil

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 10:35:12 -0400

Whether or not this economic slump ends in the short term, or plays out somewhat longer, the world has seen peak oil at 85 million barrels per day of production. We will never see that production level again.
There is no way in hell that the U.S. can "permanently modify its behavior" in regard to the use of hydrocarbons prior to an economic turnaround. The markets know it, thus increasing prices.

I would add... speculators are part of our markets. Volatility is a symptom of peak oil. Volatility is what we will be living with for many years to come.

Petrobras Deploys Riverbed Equipment on Oil Platforms

Wed, 10 Jun 2009 11:59:06 -0400

Max,
It has become obvious that you are using this forum to promote your own business.
Pasting in snipits (from your website) as comments may be ok with some, but I find it self-promoting and not particularly commendable.

Make some original comments.... or refer readers to your website.
The redundancy of your posts on various topics is annoying.

How to Invest in Ocean Wave and Hyrdopower Sustainable Energy

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 12:56:17 -0400

As with most new technologies, the concept of producing energy by using the oceans has diverse methodologies being pursued.

Let's hope for a narrowing down to the most cost-effective and (and therefore, practical) ideas. This will allow a larger influx of capital and speed up development. I can not decide which technology to pursue at this point in time. It is exciting, though.

Irrational Pricing in Crude Oil

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 12:06:35 -0400

Legitimate or manipulated???

Time to remove your blinders and see the markets are working just as should be expected. Hedge funds and large traders are part of the market. It is futile to cry about their strategies. Try to take advantage of them.

There are going to be huge swings in the price of crude oil as predicated by peak oil.

Traders have to look beyond the short time inventories that have built up to less than ONE DAY of daily oil consumption. There no longer exists enough storage capacity to rationally effect the longer term oil price. The world is simply burning so much that storage is a non-player. Those evil "hedge funds and large traders" are seeing through the fog.

Double Shale Play in Energy Approaches: EnCana and Continental Resources

Thu, 04 Jun 2009 13:43:32 -0400

As a reference point, I would suggest that investors take a look at the historic production data from the Barnett Shale play in Texas.
The percentages of commercial wells vs. non-commercial wells is not pretty. The depletion rates are incredibly high.

Admittedly, I am no expert in this arena as I have not pursued the play.
However, there are times in the oil business that you can save yourself a lot of money and angst by using some common sense and observing others.

Many oil producers know that if a reservoir requires a huge frac to break it open, it will result in a less than desirable payback (ROI).
Even though the newest technology in fraccing is being employed, I remain very skeptical of the long term production from these shales. There is usually a nice amount of flush production, that results from "blowing up the balloon" with the frac. This is followed by rapid depletion. The initial production can be sustained long enough to provide misleading reserve estimates, that will have to be written down if fairly short order.

As with most things, time will tell us exactly how economic these shale plays will be. Based on my general experience, I choose to avoid those playing the shales until I see some time tested results.
JMHO and time could prove me completely wrong.

Why Oil Between $50-$75 Is a Good Thing

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 13:43:28 -0400

Why anyone would believe that crude is going to stabilize is beyond me. The markets have awakened to the fact that crude is finite and depleting rapidly. There is no way to switch to alternatives in the time frame necessary to prevent crude from exploding upward once again.
Add to that, an administration that is opposed to developing oil and nat gas in the interim. Volatility is and will continue to be staggering with higher highs and higher lows.

Inflation will support the trend upward. We have buried our economy with unbelievable spending that may or may not be recoverable.

What's Driving the Increase in Oil Prices

Mon, 01 Jun 2009 12:23:04 -0400

Well, we can all agree on one thing.
If anything is taxable, it will get taxed ...If not already, then soon.
Isn't it great to work for the government?????

Hugoton Royalty Trust: A Stock for the Natural Gas Contrarian

Sat, 30 May 2009 13:58:57 -0400

I might be completely wrong, but I have seen misleading reserves vanish into thin air in the past.
In Texas we are seeing these "fantastic" shale gas wells deplete at alarming rates after a couple of years of flush production from the enormous fracs used to open the reservoirs.
I suspect the shale plays are somewhat over-hyped, and reserves are overstated for most. Time will tell.

In the meanwhile nat gas is trading at such low prices I simply can not pass up buying some, as it is much cheaper to buy it, than to drill for it.